Insurance Analyses of Crash Avoidance Systems and Implications for Consumer Information Testing SAE 2012 Government/Industry Meeting Washington, DC January 25, 2012 Matthew Moore

The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, founded in 1959, is an independent, nonprofit, scientific, and educational organization dedicated to reducing the losses deaths, injuries, and property damage from crashes on the nation's highways. The Highway Loss Data Institute, founded in 1972, shares and supports this mission through scientific studies of insurance data representing the human and economic losses resulting from the ownership and operation of different types of vehicles and by publishing insurance loss results by vehicle make and model. Both organizations are wholly supported by auto insurers.

HLDI data providers 21 st Century AAA Northern California, Nevada & Utah Allstate American Family Amica ANPAC Auto Club Group Automobile Insurers Bureau of Mass. Chubb COUNTRY Erie Farm Bureau Financial Services (Iowa Farm Bureau) Farmers Foremost GEICO GMAC The Hartford High Point a Plymouth Rock Company Kentucky Farm Bureau Liberty Mutual MetLife Nationwide PEMCO Progressive Rockingham Safeco Secura Insurance State Farm Tennessee Farm Bureau Travelers Unitrin USAA

Volvo City Safety research overview covariates calendar year, vehicle series and model year, rated driver age, rated driver gender, rated driver marital status, rated driver risk, state, registered vehicle density, deductible model years calendar years collision exposure (in years) 11,641 (Volvo XC60) 472,243 (All other midsize luxury SUVs) 60,227 (All other Volvos) collision claims 628 (Volvo XC60) 32,563 (All other midsize luxury SUVs) 3,988 (All other Volvos)

Measures of loss exposure Exposure is expressed in insured vehicle years. One year of exposure is defined as 1 vehicle insured for 1 year. claim frequencyCalculated by dividing claims by exposure. claim severity Measured in dollars. Claim amounts are summed and divided by the number of claims. overall lossObtained by dividing the money spent on claims by the exposure.

Volvo City Safety

Property damage liability claim frequencies for 2010 Volvo XC60 With City Safety vs. other midsize luxury SUVs

Property damage liability claim frequencies for 2010 Volvo XC60 With City Safety vs. other Volvos

Volvo XC60 City Safety vs. other Volvos claim frequency claim severity overall losses property damage liability -24.5% -19.2% -13.7%$488 $646 $794-$5 $2 $7 bodily injury -62.3% -49.2% -31.4% collision -20.2% -16.7% -13.0%-$362 -$147 $58-$72 -$53 -$36 vs. other midsize luxury SUVs claim frequency claim severity overall losses property damage liability -29.3% -26.6% -23.9%$174 $270 $362-$21 -$166 -$125 bodily injury -58.9% -51.1% -41.8% collision -23.8% -22.0% -20.1%-$645 -$517 -$392-$109 -$98 -$86

Property damage liability claim frequencies by size of claim Volvo XC60 vs. other midsize luxury SUVs

Collision claim frequencies by size of claim Volvo XC60 vs. other midsize luxury SUVs

Percent of claims and average damage amount By point of impact and coverage, models 27.9 $4, $3, $3, $3, $2, $2, $2, $2, $3, $3, $2, $3,519 collision N= 1,526,416 ($3,367) FRONT 13.5 $3, $2, $2, $2, $1, $1, $1, $1, $2, $2, $1, $2,520 PDL N= 690,929 ($2,103) FRONT

IIHS – HLDI evaluations of crash avoidance systems

Preliminary summary VIN based analyses of insurance data Adaptive cruise control and forward collision warning with/without collision mitigation systems associated with lower crash frequency Adaptive front lighting systems associated with lower crash frequency –Although reductions seem too large Blind spot monitor systems associated with lower crash frequency No indication that lane departure warning systems lower crash frequency Some parking systems associated with lower crash frequency

Availability of features for automobiles

New vehicle series with driver frontal airbag By model year

Registered vehicles with driver frontal airbag By calendar year

Registered vehicles with driver frontal airbag, actual and predicted By calendar year predicted actual

New vehicle series with electronic stability control By model year

Registered vehicles with electronic stability control By calendar year

Registered vehicles with electronic stability control, actual and predicted By calendar year predicted actual

New vehicle series with forward collision warning By model year

Registered vehicles with forward collision warning By calendar year

Registered vehicles with forward collision warning, actual and predicted By calendar year predicted actual

IIHS evaluations of crash avoidance systems

Vehicle to stationary target tests

Vehicle to moving target testing

Also conducting vehicle to pedestrian testing

Lessons learned Comparison testing is complicated Target fidelity to what it represents –Depends on sensors –Depends on algorithms Test surface coefficient of friction –DRI GST incapable of 0.6 g braking at IIHS despite working at home –Likely to affect measured auto-braking response Crash avoidance system error codes –Can they be avoided? –Do they affect system response? –Can they be reset?

Source of insurance loss statistics on most car, SUV, pickup, and motorcycle models on the road