Preview Global warming effects on hurricanes ADCP Network Operation Forecast Model

Global Warming & Hurricanes Purpose: Estimate effect of global warming on hurricane activity over next 30-50 yrs Scope Focus on Gulf of Mexico Validate model by hindcasting 10 yr Run model for 2 decades in the next 50 yr Contractor: National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Budget & Schedule $600k Aug 08-Dec 09

Industry ADCP Network Program Renewed Real-time upper water column ~ 20 permanent sites & increasing ~20 MODU’s GPS location embedded

Gulf of Mexico Operational Current Model Goals & Scope Improve present forecasting Primary emphasis on deep water (Loop) Set stage for “Community” model Budget: $1.5 M Jun 2009-Dec 2011 Improvements will come from: Routine assessment Better initial conditions, e.g. MMS measure. Ensembling of single model Ensembling of multiple models Pooling “community” expertise Status Forming team with myself, C. Mooers (PI) along with key modeling partners

Modeling: Major Tasks Identify user needs & benefits Model intercomparison Navy, NOAA, Private models Hindcast 1-yr & compare Forecast 3-mo period Explore ensembling Select model(s) Run operational model Issue routine forecasts to key users Gather feedback Develop strategy for sustainable community model

GCOOS Role? Short term Long term Member(s) on Scientific Advisory Board Handle web distribution? Education/outreach? User survey? Long term Continue to distribute products? Operate model?