ADA University School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA) Dr. Sarvar Gurbanov ADA University School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA)

Does history repeat itself?

The high point of US protectionism Smoot – Hawley Act Average tariffs were raised to 53 percent on protected imports President Herbert Hoover, the tariff signed into law on June 17, 1930 Retaliation by 25 trading partners of United States, Two years after the act, US exports decreased nearly two-thirds Mr. Trump is complaining on KORUS, NAFTA, TPP, 12- nation Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact Is Mr. Donald Trump next Hoover?

Dutch Disease

Norway Oil Fund Oil and gas equities currently account for around 6% of the Government Pension Fund $36.49 billion In April, Storebrand, Norway’s largest private-pension fund, said it had launched two new fossil-free funds. Several U.K. pension plans have funds that don’t invest in the sector. In 2014, Stanford University said it wouldn’t invest in coal-mining companies, and under pressure from environmental activists

Shaping Expectations…

Number of countries importing LNG has risen to 40, from 17, a decade ago

International Energy Agency Demand for natural gas will grow about 1.5% a year out to 2040, including both LNG and gas transported by pipeline, compared with oil-demand growth of 0.4% a year

Demand growth in natural gas outpace..

The share of world natural gas consumption in non-OECD countries increases from 53% in 2015 to 59% in 2040. #IEO2017 Natural gas continues to be an attractive fuel for the electric power and industrial sectors in many countries. These two uses account for nearly 75% of the projected increase in total consumption between 2015 and 2040.

in 2010 Energiewende is introduced By one estimate, businesses and households paid an extra €125 billion in increased electricity bills between 2000 and 2015 to subsidize renewables. One-third of Germany’s electricity is actually generated by renewables Natural gas accounts for only 9.4% of Germany’s electricity, down from a little over 14% in 2010. Gas accounts for some 30% of U.S. electricity generation

UK became a net importer of petroleum products in 2013

Consumption is "out of control," OPEC members--mostly countries in the Middle East and Africa, plus Venezuela and Ecuador--now consume almost as much energy as China, with less than half its population. The Middle East, especially, is expected to account for a major chunk of future global demand growth.

Now exporter, In 2038: Importer Continued growth in Saudi energy use could make the country, now among the world's largest oil exporters, an importer by 2038, according to Chatham House, a U.K.-based think tank.

Thanks for your attention… Dr. Sarvar Gurbanov ADA University School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA) sgurbanov@ada.edu.az