Aviation Forecast Guidance from the RUC

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Presentation transcript:

Aviation Forecast Guidance from the RUC Stan Benjamin NOAA / Forecast Systems Lab Stan.Benjamin@noaa.gov 303-497-6387 http://ruc.fsl.noaa.gov NY

3-d RUC weather data updated hourly 301 x 225 x 50 vertical levels x 14 vars  47,000,000 data pts for each analysis or fcst time Turbulence Convection - 2-12h forecast Ceiling/visibility Icing Terminal / surface Better weather products will not happen without improved high-frequency high-resolution models with high-refresh data to feed them

the 20km RUC Implemented 17 April 2002 20 km/50 level 1 hr version 40km RUC topography 20km RUC topography the 20km RUC Implemented 17 April 2002 20 km/50 level 1 hr version Replaced previous 40km / 40 level version Model improvements including cloud icing and convection Now uses satellite cloud data Improvements in warm- and cold-season precipitation location/timing cloud/icing forecasts surface forecasts wind/temperature aloft RUC web site - http://ruc.fsl.noaa.gov - RUC20/10 products

Visibility – 6h forecasts – 18z 25 Feb 02 Verifying surface obs 40km RUC Improved time/space location for visibility with RUC20 20km RUC Visibility – 6h forecasts – 18z 25 Feb 02

RUC40 12h fcst (in) 3h precip Valid 09-12z Radar summary 1115z 26 Mar 2002 RUC20 12h fcst (in) 3h precip Valid 09-12z Improved time/space location for precipitation with RUC20

RUC vector (kts) forecast error – 0000 UTC 27 Jan 98 – FL350 9h init 15z 12h init 12z 2 kts difference - ‘significant’ 6h init 18z 3h init 21z Purpose of RUC – Improved forecasts using high-frequency updates initialized with recent observations Error = 12 kts Error = 10 kts 0 10 20 30 40 50

Parallel RUC20 runs w/ and w/o MDCRS data 13-day period Feb 2001 FL390 FL310 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 RMS vector difference from obs (kts) MDCRS data denial experiment results – w/ RUC20 Substantial loss of upper-level wind short-range forecast accuracy without MDCRS 3h forecast skill w/o MDCRS ~ 12h forecast skill w/ MDCRS  9h loss of skill

Incorporate new observations into RUC model (and keep MDCRS) 3h prec – 12-15z – 2 Oct 02 Oper RUC20 Observed radar 1415z – 2 Oct 02 The Future: Incorporate new observations into RUC model (and keep MDCRS) Experimental RUC20 at FSL - incorporates radar/lightning data

Better depiction of aviation hazards Experimental 10km RUC 24h snow forecast 3h snow total – 0.5” cont int 21z 20 Nov 2000 – 00z Observed radar 2002z – 20 Nov 00 Ontario NY 5” / 3h Lake Erie PA 17” snow in 6h between 18-00z BUF airport closed NY Thruway closed OH The Future: Better depiction of aviation hazards through higher resolution in RUC model

Backbone of improved aviation forecast products for icing, turbulence, convection, TAFs = weather model forecasts updated at high frequency with latest observations Keys to improvement of model forecasts in RUC20 and future versions: Higher spatial resolution – better capture fine-scale weather hazards Use new observations to initialize model – force more realism in model initial conditions Keep MDCRS to improve rapid refresh Improved realism of physical processes in model – clouds, turbulence, land-surface