Data, Safety and Performance Outcomes Dr Alice Crossley Performance Analysis and Modelling Chief Analyst Division – Highways England

Our Network 4,300 miles of motorways and major A roads 1 billion tonnes of freight transported each year 4 million people drive on the network every day 430,000 incidents occur annually on our roads 60% of congestion is caused by a lack of road capacity

Strategic outcomes Supporting Economic Growth through a modernised and reliable network that reduces delay, creates jobs and helps business compete and opens up new areas for development Safe and Serviceable Network where no one should be harmed when travelling or working on the network More Free Flowing Network where routine delays are more infrequent, and where journeys are safer and more reliable Improved Environment where the impact of our activities is further reduced ensuring a long term and sustainable benefit to the environment More Accessible and Integrated Network that gives people the freedom to choose their mode of transport and enable safe movement across and alongside the network Why and what? The certainty of investment will enable Highways England, its stakeholders and supply chain to deliver ambitious outcomes for a future transport systems that ….. Supporting Economic Growth through a modernised and reliable network that reduces delay, creates jobs and helps business compete and opens up new areas for development Safe and Serviceable Network where no one should be harmed when travelling or working on the network More Free Flowing Network where routine delays are more infrequent, and where journeys are safer and more reliable Improved Environment where the impact of our activities is further reduced ensuring a long term and sustainable benefit to the environment More Accessible and Integrated Network that gives people the freedom to choose their mode of transport and enable safe movement across and alongside the network

Delivering the intended outcomes Efficiently, effectively and economically…..

Casualties on the Strategic Road Network (SRN) 18 November 2018

We want to go further – our priority developments for RIS2… Greater focus on SRN performance Understand Factors influencing safety outcomes Understand Implications of Highways England activities on safety outcomes Target investment to achieve safety outcomes We will look to further build on this in RIS3, developing techniques and processes to improve the evidence base. 18 November 2018

Understanding drivers of safety - Central, Structured Programme of Insight Studies The first 3 are complete: Fatality Study – Identified the root causes of fatal collisions on the SRN and recommended countermeasures that if implemented would prevent fatalities in the future. Driver Behaviour – Understanding the types of drivers who tend to be non-compliant with a particular focus on seven behaviours  including speeding, close following and mobile phone use Vehicle Roadworthiness – Identifying the scale of unroadworthy vehicles on the SRN As a result of these 3 pieces of research, 64 countermeasures have been identified that we are working to deliver. .

Understanding investment impacts - New analytical platform World-leading Traffic models Comprehensive Outcome models Innovative Wider economy model GDP Jobs Land-use change Whole-economy impacts Regionally disaggregated Translated into “welfare” for appraisal 5 regional models The entire SRN Scheme-specific appraisal Region/corridor appraisal Outcome models Forecast KPI performance

Regional Traffic Models (RTMs) – step change in transport modelling capability, providing comprehensive coverage of the SRN Traffic models are used to forecast how traffic flow changes following infrastructure investment New RTM capability covers all of Highways England’s Strategic Road Network with 5 RTMs Mobile phone data has been used to revolutionise how data are collected (used to be roadside survey) and increase coverage Highway models are linked to simple rail model to allow mode choice functionality (e.g. impact of HS2 on the road network)

Regional Traffic Models – Data Road Network derived from 2015 ITN GIS layer National travel demands derived from mobile phone data combined with National Travel Survey, and Trafficmaster GPS Traffic count data from Highways England & Local Authorities Airport and Port demands (base and future)

Economy modelling In this suite… new economy model Transport is derived demand.. Need to know where people live and work…. This model will explore relationshiop between SRN and these key economic indicators.

Outcome models The suite of outcome models will cover the following performance areas Making the Network safer; Improving user satisfaction; Supporting the smooth flow of traffic; Encouraging economic growth; Delivering better environmental outcomes; Helping cyclists, walkers, and other vulnerable users of the Network

Outcome model – Road Safety DfT National Transport Model Regional Traffic Models Studies from Previous Works Studies from Road Industry Road Safety Modelling Stats 19 Data Actual Traffic data from the Road Information Framework data

Outcome model - Safety Developed to mirror the National Safety Model created by AECOM Allows regional forecasting against regional targets Both use the number of KSI’s (based on Stats 19 data) per 100 million Vehicle Miles to predict future KSI’s

Understanding investment outcomes - Major projects - Safety Management System Interim Advice Note 191/16 (Safety Governance for Highways England) provides a framework for safety governance on all Highways England activities including major projects. All schemes undertaken by Highways England have to be implemented with an appropriate level of safety governance in order that safety risk is identified, mitigated and managed. This achieved by the implementation of an appropriate safety management system (SMS). This approach to safety was first implemented as part of the SMART motorway programme. Post opening evaluation of the SMART motorway schemes (including the safety aspects) is ongoing with the three year after results being published in 2018.

Understanding investment impacts - Operations Developing leading Indicators to target investment But also “value mapping” to identify impact of different interventions and maximise impact.

Using Damage Only Data What Data?... Traffic Officer Command and Control Data & (SW Region) Damage Only Report Forms (a ‘mini Stats19 type’ record) Service Provider ‘Watchman Observation’ Data and Asset Defect/Maintenance records (e.g. Barrier Strikes) Why?... Data on damage only RTCs can add value to analysis of injury RTCs to inform studies. Analysis on small numbers of incidents is difficult and prone to bias so a larger dataset is advantageous. A glut of damage only RTCs may be a precursor to an injury RTC.

Case Studies… Damage Only Data has been used…. In an investigation into RTCs during wet conditions on a stretch of road which resulted in engineering solution on the drainage asset. Alongside Stats19 data to identify RTC concentrations not shown in injury accidents and to further substantiate, describe and analyse concentrations of injury accidents already identified. In an obstacle protection/vehicle containment study to support findings from studies of KSI accidents – looking at where severity of incidents could be reduced by removal of obstacles or better protection of obstacles In 2 investigations into unexpected loss of control accidents involving towing vehicles on inclines on M5. which allowed us to provide a cost effective safety scheme - involving the installation of warning signs and a wind sock. In a Route Safety Study where the damage only data did not reveal issues that were not also identified with the injury accidents (but this is a useful conclusion as well).

Summary - Focus on Outcomes Understand drivers of safety outcomes Understand impact of investment and operations activities Outcome modelling Value mapping Leading indicators Using both national and local data to target interventions

Thanks to - Regional Intelligence Units Helen Stone Chief Analyst Division (Stephen Elderkin) Peter Grant Shaun Ryan-Izzard Paul Harrison Safety – Professional and Technical Services Richard Leonard Stuart Lovatt Kathrine Wilson-Ellis Ron Thompson New Chief Analyst and Chief Analyst Division. Performance Analysis and Modelling Team lead on forecasting performance for RIS1 and developing KPIs and analysis for RIS2. They also manage the Regional Transport Models which cover the whole of the SRN network. TAME’s primary role is to provide analytic advice and guidance on the traffic appraisal of improvements to the Strategic Road Network (SRN) and they provide: The Economics team primary role is to provide economic appraisal of improvements to the SRN including guidance on value for money.

alice.crossley@highwaysengland.co.uk