Long Term Passenger Rolling Stock Strategy for the Rail Industry Rowan Smith This will be Chris K-S fifth and final RSS, and my first. RSS is published by RSSSG – manufacturers, lessors, owning groups and RDG I have 33 years in the industry, joined as an operator, performance management – first delay attributor on UK rail! Commercial role in mail trains, then DK, then freight 5 years in a ROSCO 10 years at DfT in Dpty Director role running up to 5 franchises

UK Rolling Stock Fleet – What’s in store? Long Term Passenger Rolling Stock Strategy UK Rolling Stock Fleet – What’s in store? Passenger miles – 1982 Recession 1995 Recession 2001 gauge corner cracking 70s: HST; 313 80’s: 142/144/150; 315 / 317 / 319 / 321; 442 / 455 / 458 90’s: 156 / 158; 323 / 456 / 465 / 466;

Rolling Stock Strategy Steering Group Long Term Passenger Rolling Stock Strategy Rolling Stock Strategy Steering Group History Government wanted the industry to do some leading – DfT may not know best! Opportunity for industry to set the scene First edition of RSS in 2013 Objectives Set out dimensions of industry-wide rolling stock requirements over a 30 year horizon in the context of: Growth Network developments Government policy Better Value for Money How cost might be reduced How capacity might be increased How industry revenue might be increased DfT wanting industry to show more leadership Get industry thinking strategically, not just “£ from next franchise” - unaffordable Belief that this might optimise VFM Industry voice was “would have been cheaper, but specification / strategy put price up” – so how would industry have it to keep prices under control? Strategy doesn’t look at how rolling stock meets franchise requirements, looks at what volume of various wheeled metal cages might be required at a point in time. This is a volume led strategy…

Long Term Passenger Rolling Stock Strategy What doesn’t the RSS do? Doesn’t specify trains or say how they should be deployed! So what does the RSS provide? Factually based, bottom up forecast Some credible figures – initial forecasts are “on track” for current deliveries Strategic picture for government, key stakeholders and the supply industry Scenarios for comparison / incorporation with other models – e.g. Initial Industry Advice Does NOT say what should be specified or how it should be deployed! Starts with current fleet, by TOC, adds contracted growth HMG economic forecasts NR route plans / RSBPs with their L/M/H banding Examines and takes view on trends Govt policy Political and other pressures e.g. diesel Welcomed by Rail Executive Shows what is faced given the assumptions made Encourages investment. Know it has been used at board level.

Fleet Size and Composition – Medium Scenario Long Term Passenger Rolling Stock Strategy Fleet Size and Composition – Medium Scenario Table to leave up while I take questions: Note we use generic terms e.g.“self powered”. Diesel? Battery? Hydrogen cell? The “distance” metric gives a feel for the role that rail fills in the transport market. It may give a feel for the fulfilment of specification, but it is meant to be vague. Doors location is probably the most important factor. Long distance probably not for commuting - £££ or layout – Pendolino Over 6,000 new additional vehicles ORDERED for delivery by mid CP6 BUT c.3,000 vehicles come off-lease Between 40% and 90% more vehicles by 2046 Currently c.13,500 +30% by 2029; +44% by 2034 – with range from 40% to 90%