Overall Statistics RMSE WRF-UA: 159 W m-2 WRF-UCSD: 171 W m-2 STDERR

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Presentation transcript:

Overall Statistics RMSE WRF-UA: 159 W m-2 WRF-UCSD: 171 W m-2 STDERR ‘Bias-corrected RMSE’ WRF-UA: 165 W m-2 WRF-UCSD: 164 W m-2 Ratios compared to NAM WRF-UA more accurate for 4/6 days Forecast horizon WRF-UCSD is more accurate for the first 6-7 hours of simulation time   RMSE Ratio to NAM STDERR Ratio to NAM Date WRF-UA WRF 8/10/2011 0.90 1.34 0.82 1.09 8/11/2011 0.92 0.61 0.49 8/12/2011 0.59 0.87 0.63 8/13/2011 0.36 0.51 0.34 0.53 8/14/2011 0.40 0.54 0.37 0.57 8/15/2011 0.70 0.79 0.66 0.76

WRF-UCSD performed much worse than WRF-UA 8/10/2011 WRF-UCSD performed much worse than WRF-UA Not enough cloud cover (afternoon) Scale of clouds WRF-UA cloud scales are much smaller, despite WRF-UA having slightly coarser resolution (1.8 km vs. 1.3 km) 1500 UTC 1900 UTC 2200 UTC

WRF-UA WRF-UCSD 8/12/2011 Largest improvement over WRF-UA Cloud field burnoff Timing captured by WRF-UCSD Too many afternoon clouds in WRF-UA WRF-UA has two distinct types of clouds from the model 1700 UTC Clouds generated by PBL scheme? Shallow convection? 2000 UTC 2200 UTC