Overall Statistics RMSE WRF-UA: 159 W m-2 WRF-UCSD: 171 W m-2 STDERR

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Some questions on convection that could be addressed through another UK field program centered at Chilbolton Dan Kirshbaum 1.

Advertisements

Solar Energy Forecasting Using Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Models Patrick Mathiesen, Sanyo Fellow, UCSD Jan Kleissl, UCSD.

Improved Simulations of Clouds and Precipitation Using WRF-GSI Zhengqing Ye and Zhijin Li NASA-JPL/UCLA June, 2011.

Gareth’s modeling extravaganza.. Approach. - Using a full-physics mesoscale model to simulate AEW cases. - Analysis of model output will be subjected.

Hector simulation We found simulation largely depending on: Model initialization scheme Lateral boundary conditions Physical processes represented in the.

Weather Model Background ● The WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model had been developed by various research and governmental agencies became the.

The Effects of Grid Nudging on Polar WRF Forecasts in Antarctica Daniel F. Steinhoff 1 and David H. Bromwich 1 1 Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research.

Consortium Meeting June 3, Thanks Mike! Hit Rates.

OAQPS Air Quality Modeling Group Fine-scale Meteorological Simulation of Cold Pools in Salt Lake City Chris Misenis, Kirk Baker, Pat Dolwick October 29,

Implementation of IPHOC in VVCM: Tests of GCSS Cases Anning Cheng 1,2 and Kuan-Man Xu 2 1.AS&M, Inc. 2.Science Directorate, NASA Langley Research Center.

A Radar Data Assimilation Experiment for COPS IOP 10 with the WRF 3DVAR System in a Rapid Update Cycle Configuration. Thomas Schwitalla Institute of Physics.

The National Environmental Agency of Georgia L. Megrelidze, N. Kutaladze, Kh. Kokosadze NWP Local Area Models’ Failure in Simulation of Eastern Invasion.

Russ Bullock 11 th Annual CMAS Conference October 17, 2012 Development of Methodology to Downscale Global Climate Fields to 12km Resolution.

Oct October 2008 An update provided by Thomas Nehrkorn Atmospheric & Environmental Research, Inc. 131 Hartwell Ave Lexington, Massachusetts

winter RADIATION FOGS at CIBA (Spain): Observations compared to WRF simulations using different PBL parameterizations Carlos Román-Cascón

WINDSOR TORNADO STUDY - STMAS (updated 9/16/2009 by Huiling Yuan and Yuanfu Xie)

INSTYTUT METEOROLOGII I GOSPODARKI WODNEJ INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGY AND WATER MANAGEMENT TITLE : IMPLEMENTATION OF MOSAIC APPROACH IN COSMO AT IMWM AUTHORS:

Experiences with 0-36 h Explicit Convective Forecasting with the WRF-ARW Model Morris Weisman (Wei Wang, Chris Davis) NCAR/MMM WSN05 September 8, 2005.

How well can we model air pollution meteorology in the Houston area? Wayne Angevine CIRES / NOAA ESRL Mark Zagar Met. Office of Slovenia Jerome Brioude,

WRF Problems: Some Solutions, Some Mysteries Cliff Mass and David Ovens University of Washington.

Ensemble Kalman Filter in a boundary layer 1D numerical model Samuel Rémy and Thierry Bergot (Météo-France) Workshop on ensemble methods in meteorology.

MCS Introduction Where? Observed reflectivity at 3km from

Modeling and Evaluation of Antarctic Boundary Layer

Short Range Ensemble Prediction System Verification over Greece Petroula Louka, Flora Gofa Hellenic National Meteorological Service.

Joint SRNWP/COST-717 WG-3 session, Lisbon Stefan Klink Data Assimilation Section Early results with rainfall assimilation.

4 th JCSDA Science Workshop, 31 May – 1 June 2006 Broadband Satellite-Like (Infrared) Cloud Products from NCEP Models and Preliminary Cloud Verification.

Page 1© Crown copyright 2005 DEVELOPMENT OF 1- 4KM RESOLUTION DATA ASSIMILATION FOR NOWCASTING AT THE MET OFFICE Sue Ballard, September 2005 Z. Li, M.

Comparison of Convection-permitting and Convection-parameterizing Ensembles Adam J. Clark – NOAA/NSSL 18 August 2010 DTC Ensemble Testbed (DET) Workshop.

Numerical investigation of the multi-scale processes inducing convection initiation for the 12 June 2002 IHOP case study Preliminary study: testing the.

Evaluating Local-scale CO 2 Meteorological Model Transport Uncertainty for the INFLUX Urban Campaign through the Use of Realistic Large Eddy Simulation.

WINDSOR TORNADO STUDY - STMAS (updated 10/21/2009 by Huiling Yuan and Yuanfu Xie)

Assimilating Cloudy Infrared Brightness Temperatures in High-Resolution Numerical Models Using Ensemble Data Assimilation Jason A. Otkin and Rebecca Cintineo.

© Crown copyright Met Office Convection Permitting Modelling Humphrey Lean et al. Reading, UK Leeds April 2014.

Regional-scale OSSEs used to explore the impact of infrared brightness temperature observations Jason Otkin UW-Madison/CIMSS 06 February 2013.

Matt Vaughan Class Project ATM 621

Indirect impact of ozone assimilation using Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation system for regional applications Kathryn Newman1,2,

Characteristics of precipitating convection in the UM at Δx≈200m-2km

Assessment of high-resolution simulations of precipitation and temperature characteristics over western Canada using WRF model Asong. Z.E

Does nudging squelch the extremes in regional climate modeling?

Operational Verification at HNMS

Xuexing Qiu and Fuqing Dec. 2014

Studies with COSMO-DE on basic aspects in the convective scale:

MM5- and WRF-Simulated Cloud and Moisture Fields

Grid Point Models Surface Data.

Update on the Northwest Regional Modeling System 2013

Systematic timing errors in km-scale NWP precipitation forecasts

Case study of an urban heat island in London, UK: Comparison between observations and a high resolution numerical weather prediction model Siân Lane, Janet.

Better Forecasting Bureau

Radar Data Assimilation

S.Alessandrini, S.Sperati, G.Decimi,

Forecast Pressure.

Tucson, AZ Initial Results 8/10/2011 – 8/15/2011

Cliff Mass University of Washington

Predictability of Snow Multi-Bands Using a 40-Member WRF Ensemble

Impact of GOES Enhanced WRF Fields on Air Quality Model Performance

Verification Overview

A. Topographic radiation correction in COSMO: gridscale or subgridscale? B. COSMO-2: convection resolving or convection inhibiting model? Matteo Buzzi.

Lidia Cucurull, NCEP/JCSDA

Nowcast guidance of afternoon convection initiation for Taiwan

Rita Roberts and Jim Wilson National Center for Atmospheric Research

2007 Mei-yu season Chien and Kuo (2009), GPS Solutions

How can an improved model yield higher RMS errors?

Modeling a heavy rainfall case in North-East Estonia, August 2003

Quality Assessment Activities

The Value of Nudging in the Meteorology Model for Retrospective CMAQ Simulations Tanya L. Otte NOAA Air Resources Laboratory, RTP, NC (In partnership with.

Verification Overview

Reporter : Prudence Chien

WRAP 2014 Regional Modeling

Short Range Ensemble Prediction System Verification over Greece

Lightning Potential Index (J/Kg) (Yair et al.2010,JGR)

Presentation transcript:

Overall Statistics RMSE WRF-UA: 159 W m-2 WRF-UCSD: 171 W m-2 STDERR ‘Bias-corrected RMSE’ WRF-UA: 165 W m-2 WRF-UCSD: 164 W m-2 Ratios compared to NAM WRF-UA more accurate for 4/6 days Forecast horizon WRF-UCSD is more accurate for the first 6-7 hours of simulation time RMSE Ratio to NAM STDERR Ratio to NAM Date WRF-UA WRF 8/10/2011 0.90 1.34 0.82 1.09 8/11/2011 0.92 0.61 0.49 8/12/2011 0.59 0.87 0.63 8/13/2011 0.36 0.51 0.34 0.53 8/14/2011 0.40 0.54 0.37 0.57 8/15/2011 0.70 0.79 0.66 0.76

WRF-UCSD performed much worse than WRF-UA 8/10/2011 WRF-UCSD performed much worse than WRF-UA Not enough cloud cover (afternoon) Scale of clouds WRF-UA cloud scales are much smaller, despite WRF-UA having slightly coarser resolution (1.8 km vs. 1.3 km) 1500 UTC 1900 UTC 2200 UTC

WRF-UA WRF-UCSD 8/12/2011 Largest improvement over WRF-UA Cloud field burnoff Timing captured by WRF-UCSD Too many afternoon clouds in WRF-UA WRF-UA has two distinct types of clouds from the model 1700 UTC Clouds generated by PBL scheme? Shallow convection? 2000 UTC 2200 UTC