Progress in modeling human population fronts FEPRE European project 2nd annual workshop St Petersburg 5-10 April 2008 Progress in modeling human population fronts Joaquim Fort Universitat de Girona Catalonia, Spain

FEPRE work by the Girona group Manchester 2007 (1st FEPRE workshop): 1. Time-ordered models → SUBMITTED  2. Realistic dispersion kernels → IN PROGRESS 3. Non-isotropic models → PLANNED … 4. Genetic clines → PLANNED …

FEPRE work by the Girona group St. Petersburg 2008 (2nd FEPRE workshop): 1. Time-ordered models → Phys. Rev. E 76, 031913 (2007) 2. Realistic dispersion kernels → talk by N. Isern 3. Non-isotropic models → New J. Phys. 76, 031913 (2007) 4. Genetic clines → 2-population models → New J. Phys. in press (2008) → talk by J. Pérez-Losada   IMPACT FACTOR (SCI ) JOURNAL              7                      Phys. Rev. Lett. 4 New J. Phys. 2 Phys. Rev. E

Recent progress Non-isotropic models → New J. Phys. 76 031913 (2007) Girona group: Non-isotropic models → New J. Phys. 76 031913 (2007) Other groups: M.J. Hamilton & B. Buchanan, PNAS 104 15625 (2007) G. J. Ackland et al., PNAS 104 8714 (2007)   IMPACT FACTOR (SCI ) JOURNAL     31                     Science            29                     Nature             14                     PLoS Biology             10                     PNAS              7                      Phys. Rev. Lett. 4 New J. Phys. 2 Phys. Rev. E

Plan of this talk Time-delayed equation Hamilton & Buchanan, PNAS (2007) Girona group: Non-isotropic models → New J. Phys. (2007) G. J. Ackland et al., PNAS (2007)

Recall < F+M, Phys. Rev. Lett. (1999)

Hamilton & Buchanan, PNAS 104 15625 (2007)

Hamilton & Buchanan, PNAS 104 15625 (2007) → predicted speed: 2 km/yr → observed speed: 8 km/yr

Human prehistoric range expansion speeds Location Dates (uncal yr BP) Speed (km/yr) Mainly boats? Ref. North America 12000-10000 8 ? Hamilton, PNAS 2007 Oceania 4000-750 >8 YES Fort, Antiquity 2003 Mediterranean 7000-6000 >10 Zilhao, PNAS 2001 Levant+Europe Neolithic 11000- 4000 1 NO Pinhasi, Fort & Ammerman, PLoS Biol 2005 Europe lateglacial 14000-12000 Fort, Pujol & Cavalli-Sforza, CAJ 2004 Levant+Europe modern humans 42000- 36000

Non-isotropic models · Manchester group: · Davison, Dolukhanov, Sarson & Shukurov, J. Arch. Sci. (2006) · FEPRE project application · Girona group: F & Pujol, New J. Phys. 76 031913 (2007) isotropic non-isotropic

Girona group: Non-isotropic models F & Pujol, New J. Phys. 76 031913 (2007) front non-isotropic

Human colonization of the U.S. during the XIX century Individual migrations are biased against the front propagation direction

G. J. Ackland et al., PNAS 104 8714 (2007) X→F H→X acculturation F= farmers with neolithic language, genes, etc. H= hunter-gatherers with paleolithic language, genes, etc. X= converts = farmers with paleolithic language, genes, etc.   H→X acculturation X→F or F→ X cultural competition (λ=0→Aoki, no cultural boundaries)

G. J. Ackland et al., PNAS 104 8714 (2007)  

G. J. Ackland et al., PNAS 104 8714 (2007) Neolithic culture & genes Paleolithic culture & genes This is the only model known to predict cultural boundaries

Open problems Data from PLoS Biol (2005) Pinhasi, Fort & Ammerman, Impact Factor (SCI)=14

Open problems Data from PLoS Biol (2005) Pinhasi, Fort & Ammerman, Impact Factor (SCI)=14

Spread of genetic mutations Recent progress Vlad, Cavalli-Sforza & Ross, PNAS 101 10249 (2004) Currant & Excoffier, Proc. Roy. Soc. B 272 679 (2005) Open problem Comparison between simulated & observed clines

Aims of the FEPRE project Archeaological data + mathematical modelling → denied (2005) Roots in prehistory of present socio-cultural diversity → approved (2006)

Open problem