National Workforce Projects Workforce Planning and Demographics Bryan Kessie Portfolio Project Manager 1

Long Term Planning Project Employer / Employee Equation Next Steps National Workforce Projects Outline:- Who is NWP? Demographic trends Long Term Planning Project Employer / Employee Equation Next Steps http://www.healthcareworkforce.org.uk 2

National Workforce Projects NWP: An NHS expert body, pursuing excellence in the development and implementation of 'best practice' workforce planning tools, skills and techniques and the research and dissemination of first class workforce intelligence. Who we are The National Workforce Projects team is hosted by Hampshire and Isle of Wight WDC (part of Hampshire and Isle of Wight Strategic Health Authority (SHA)) NWP team members are based in a variety of locations across England – office bases currently include Manchester, Leeds, Leicester and Winchester http://www.healthcareworkforce.org.uk 3

Examination of the changing demographics across the population National Workforce Projects Based on the “Demography is Destiny” international workforce project and the follow up “Employer/Employee Equation” project Examination of the changing demographics across the population Development of the long term planning project Development of the 3E’s project in making recommendations for staff engagement in the future. Looking at ways of using demographic information to improve workforce planning in the NHS. 4

Source: U.S. Social Security Administration Life Expectancy 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Source: U.S. Social Security Administration

The World is Aging Percent of Population Age 60+: 2000 Under 5% 5% to 12.4% 12.5% to 20% Above 20% Source: U.S. Census Bureau

The World is Aging Percent of Population Age 60+: 2025 Under 5% 5% to 12.4% 12.5% to 20% Above 20% Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Birth Rates Total Fertility Rate: 1960 and 2000 4 1960 2000 3.6 3.3 3 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.5 Children per Adult Woman 2 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2 1 US UK France Canada Japan Germany Italy Source: U.S. National Center for Health Statistics

Baby Boom and Age Wave 1946-1964 Birth in Millions 1930 1940 1950 1960 4.5 4.0 Birth in Millions 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 Source: U.S. Census

National Workforce Projects As well as the global population issues we need to look in detail at the current and future workforce. The Demography is Destiny study looked at young workers, mid career workers and the mature workers. As well as the changing numbers of the population in each segment there are also differing expectations across the segments. Future NHS recruitment and retention plans will have to take account of the different needs of it’s workforce. 10

The Old Work/Life Pattern Age 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Education Work Leisure

A More Cyclic Life Pattern Has Evolved Age 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Education Work Leisure

The Next Stage is a Thoroughly Blended Pattern 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Education Work Leisure

Seven Boiling Frogs We Can’t Let Them Simmer too Long Recruiting and retaining young workers Reengaging and retaining mid-career workers Leveraging and retaining mature workers Embracing flexible work arrangements Embedding learning everywhere Aligning compensation and benefits Anticipating demographically-driven labour shortages

National Workforce Projects NWP is taking forward many of the issues raised by the Demography is Destiny Report. The Long Term planning project is developing a framework to help organisations to plan the workforce for 10 – 15 years. The Long Term Planning Project aims to develop the methodology and establish the capability and the skills for long term planning in NHS organisations. NWP is developing a wide range of other workforce planning tools, techniques and skills development. All details are available on the website www.healthcareworkforce.org.uk 15

Compliments existing work and research in UK RRR strategies. National Workforce Projects The Employee / Employer Equation is a US based follow on project to Demography is Destiny Report. The projects takes the recommendations of the report and researches what the “ideal deal” is for today's workforce. Initially based on an age related question the initial results paint a much more complex picture of the staff. The output of the project will be a segmented tool that will allow organisations to develop staff engagement strategies tailored to their needs. Compliments existing work and research in UK RRR strategies. 16

A Closer Look . . . at the Workplace Women make up 46% of workforce Growing employee participation in decision-making Casual workplace Flexible arrangements – telecommuting, compressed work weeks, job sharing 34.5 hours worked per week on average 1990s 40% of workers “skilled,” 20% “professional” 1989, white males became a minority share of the workforce Tenure per company decreases 38.1 hours worked per week on average 1980s Women make up 43% of workforce 38.3 hours worked per week on average Increased awareness of workplace safety 1970s Education gaining importance in the workforce 45% unskilled workers/ 35% skilled/ 20% professional 38.7 hours worked per week on average 1960s Women make up 29% of workforce  Minorities make up 10% of labor force Most workers have no more than a high school education At will employment 1950s

2004: The Economy and Workplace Today Slowly strengthening economic recovery Anticipated cross-over point with demographic trends – a return to talent shortages Limited workforce availability – slow growth in all developed markets Skills imbalance – shortages and excesses Global workforce – off-shoring, connected communities, diffuse corporate boundaries Counterintuitive sourcing options – older workers for “entry” level jobs Physically dispersed workforce – requiring active connections Cyclical or project-based work – more time off, requiring new job configurations Highly diverse workforce – in every dimension 2000s

What Employees Value Most

What does this mean for the UK workforce? National Workforce Projects What does this mean for the UK workforce? NWP is taking forward the UK version of this tool in partnership with the DH and Concours The research into employee needs will compliment existing RRR projects and allow organisations to draw up a staff engagement strategy. Will compliment projects looking at new ways of working as increased flexibility from the staff is at the core of recent modernisation projects. 20

Next Steps. Further information:- www.healthcareworkforce.org.uk National Workforce Projects Next Steps. Further information:- www.healthcareworkforce.org.uk www.concoursgroup.com Bryan.kessie@nwipp.nhs.uk Continued dialogue about the outcomes of projects Linked areas of work. 21