Why does novice driver safety improve after passing the driving test? Prof Richard Rowe & Dr Damian Poulter Young driver focus april 25th, 2018

Trends in u.k. Crash rates Car drivers involved in road crashes per million GB licence holders Overall crash risk declining, but young drivers still pose greatest risk… ... but still relatively little understanding of why crash liability is so high DfT, 2016

Learners are the safest drivers newly qualified drivers are the most dangerous Crash rates are the highest in first month after beginning independent driving Crash risk diminishes with experience from that point Learner drivers are the safest on the road People switch from the safest group to the most dangerous on the day they gain their licence Imberger et al, 2017

driving skill and driving style: The driver behaviour questionnaire (reason et al., 1990) Way drivers choose to drive (e.g, speed, rule-breaking) Driving skill Vehicle control & Reading the road Both linked to increased crash risk in novice drivers De Winter et al., 2015

Overall crash liability Cohort II study 10K+ UK drivers Commissioned by the DfT Wells et al, 2008

The development of risky style over time Roman, G. D., Poulter, D., Barker, E., McKenna, F. P., & Rowe, R. (2015). Novice drivers' individual trajectories of driver behavior over the first three years of driving. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 82, 61-69. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2015.05.012

The development of self-reported skill failures over time Roman, G. D., Poulter, D., Barker, E., McKenna, F. P., & Rowe, R. (2015). Novice drivers' individual trajectories of driver behavior over the first three years of driving. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 82, 61-69. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2015.05.012

Trajectories interpretation Simple change in these behaviours does not seem to underlie reduction in crash rate Pattern not compatible with decrease in crashes Crash rate over time Wells et al, 2008 Aggressive violations over time Roman et al, 2015

Novice risk situations So what does change? Identifying situations where novices are at risk, and appear to get better with experience, a good place to start understanding change over time Novice risk situations Driving around bends Following distance (rear-end shunts) Driving at night Turning right at junctions Clarke et al, 2006

Potential explanations Driving style Risk-taking may get worse overall with experience But drivers may be learning about a few key areas where risks must be controlled e.g., driving too fast round bends Driving skills Skills not fully developed after passing test Skills may be continuing to improve in early stages of independent driving Car control Situation awareness/hazard perception

Longitudinal Interview study 13 newly qualified drivers (17-19 years old, 6 males) Interviewed each participant monthly after passing their test for 3 months Asked them how their driving was now and how it had developed over past month Regarding high risk situations and in general Day, M. R., Thompson, A. R., Poulter, D. P., Stride, C. B., & Rowe, R. (in press). Why do drivers become safer over the first three months of driving? A longitudinal qualitative study. Accident Analysis & Prevention. 

Drivers all report driving faster as experience gained Driving style it's not as thrilling anymore….. it was like when I first did it I was like oh I'm driving…. now I'm just like eurghh...got to drive Drivers all report driving faster as experience gained Counter to improving safety Thrill becomes less common Could contribute to safety improvement [On] country roads I’ve never gone over but I do like the ability to be able to drive cos... its like you’ve got no limitations and it is an adrenalin Day, M. R., Thompson, A. R., Poulter, D. P., Stride, C. B., & Rowe, R. (in press). Why do drivers become safer over the first three months of driving? A longitudinal qualitative study. Accident Analysis & Prevention. 

Driving skill Report improvements in control and situation awareness Potential to underlie improving road safety “I’m struggling with the idea of ‘will I stall it in their path’, so I’d rather just wait for a gap…so I will just sit there for massive gaps (laughs)”. “… it's just a natural thing now, it’s like walking, I can get in a car and just drive...” Day, M. R., Thompson, A. R., Poulter, D. P., Stride, C. B., & Rowe, R. (in press). Why do drivers become safer over the first three months of driving? A longitudinal qualitative study. Accident Analysis & Prevention. 

Graduated Driver Licencing What can we do? Graduated Driver Licencing Clear, consistent evidence for crash/casualty/fatality reduction in young & novice drivers Shope, 2007; Russell et al, 2011 Commitment to saving lives as well as reduce economic cost Public support for reduction of novice driver casualties & GDL schemes Shope, 2007; Jones et al, 2015 Post-licence parental monitoring Parent-imposed driving limits associated with positive driving outcomes Prato et al, 2010; Simons-Morton et al, 2006 Increase perceived legitimacy for introducing GDL scheme Risk of self-selection bias

Greater understanding of factors predicting crash involvement Where do we go from here? Take action Cannot afford to continue ignoring evidence-based solutions Comprehensive community approach Greater understanding of factors predicting crash involvement On-going research & evaluation needed Identify key risk factors to inform intervention

Project team Prof Richard Rowe (University of Sheffield) Dr Damian Poulter (University of Greenwich) Dr Andrew Thompson (University of Sheffield) Dr Chris Stride (University of Sheffield) Prof Frank McKenna (University of Reading) Dr Edward Barker (King’s College, London) Mrs Marianne Day (University of Sheffield) Project partners Graham Grayson (Transport Research Laboratory) Barry Sexton (Transport Research Laboratory) Driving Instructors Association South Yorkshire Safer Roads Partnership IAM Roadsmart First Car Young Drivers Club