What Are Weather Forecasts Worth

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Presentation transcript:

What Are Weather Forecasts Worth What Are Weather Forecasts Worth? Stated Preference Approaches to Valuing Information Jeff Lazo Societal Impacts Program National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, CO www.sip.ucar.edu CANSEE, Toronto, CA - October 28, 2005

Outline Motivation of the Study Prior Studies Stated Preference Valuation Survey Development Results Next Steps

Motivation Evaluate benefits to households of improvements in weather forecasting services 104,705,000 households Day-to-day weather National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration

Value of Weather Information Haas and Rinkle (1979) MSI Services Incorporated (1981) Chapman (1992) Anaman and Lellyett (1996) Rollins and Shaykewich (2003) Weather forecasts - quasi-public good Non-market valuation methods stated preference contingent valuation choice based methods

Survey Development Atmospheric Science Advisors (ASA) attributes of weather forecasts current and potential level of attributes Focus groups (15 subjects) One-on-one interviews (11 subjects) Denver Pretest (84 Subjects) Survey Expert Review Panel North Carolina Focus Groups (23 subjects) Multi-site implementation (381 Subjects) National random sample (~1,400 Subjects)

Survey Layout Introduction Sources, perceptions and uses Forecast attributes Value for improved weather forecasts Stated choice - attributes of forecasts Contingent valuation – demand characteristics Household characteristics Value for Current Forecasts Severe Weather

Survey Implementation 9 cities – in-person self-administered written survey - ~25-30 minutes 381 Respondents

Socio-demographics

Results Perceptions (sources & uses) Attributes and Levels Valuation modeling value estimates

Perceptions Importance of Weather Forecast Characteristic

Perceptions Importance of Weather Forecast Characteristic

Adequacy of Current Levels of Forecast Attributes

Stated Choice: Attributes and Attribute Levels Dollars per year per household of $3, $8, $15, $24 Budget constraint reminder 20 versions of survey 9 Stated Choice and 1 Stated Value question

Stated Choice Quest- ion

A-B Probit Model

Stated Choice Question

A-B-Status Quo Model (Conditional Probit)

Stated Value: Valuation Question

Stated Value (WTP) Model

Model Estimates (t-ratios in parentheses)

National Valuation Estimate

Next Steps Hurricanes! THORPEX Grant Re-defining attribute sets and levels Temperature: 0-2 days 3-6 days 7-14 days Precipitation : 0-2 days 3-6 days 7-14 days Geographic Specificity National sample - ~1400 completes Internet based implementation Probablistic forecast Information Modeling and analysis non-linear in attribute levels random parameters socio-demographic characteristics Hurricanes!

Questions?