The Monty Hall Problem. Warm up example (from Mondays In Class Problems) Suppose there are 50 red balls and 50 blue balls in each of two bins (200 balls.

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Presentation transcript:

The Monty Hall Problem

Warm up example (from Mondays In Class Problems) Suppose there are 50 red balls and 50 blue balls in each of two bins (200 balls in all) Suppose you draw one ball from each bin Suppose you know one is red What is the probability that the other one is red too? ½??? ¼???

1 st ball 2 nd ball Only one of the four possibilities is ruled out. Pr(2 red | 1 red) = Pr(2 red)/Pr(1 red) = ¼ / ¾ = 1/3 ½ ½ ½ ½ ½ ½

The Monty Hall Game Applied Probability: Lets Make A Deal (1970s TV Game Show) lec 13W.4

Monty Hall Webpages lec 13W.5

The Monty Hall Game goats behind two doors prize behind third door contestant picks a door Monty reveals a goat behind an unpicked door Contest sticks, or switches to the other unopened door lec 13W.6

Switching is Better than Sticking! But why? Imagine there are not 3 doors but 1000 Monty keeps opening doors and allowing you to switch You stick 998 times Now there are 2 doors left, one of which is the one you picked Still want to stick?

1/3 Prize location Door Picked Door Opened /3 1/2 1 1/18 1/9 1/18 1/9 1/18 W: 6/9 = 2/3 L: 6/18 = 1/3 Analysis: SWITCH strategy L L L L L L W W W W W W lec 13W.8

SWITCH strategy wins iff prize door not picked: really simple analysis picks prize door yes no L W Pr{switch wins} lec 13W.9

The Last Laugh

Finis lec 13W.11