Chapter 4 Dr. Marie-Helen Maras

Terrorist Attacks in Iraq Between January 1, 2004 – December 31, 2010 Group Type Attacks Deaths Islamic Extremist (Shia) 431 1,002 Islamic Extremist (Sunni) 3,107 15,763 Islamic Extremist (Unknown) 41 68 Secular/Political/Anarchist 11 182 Tribal/Clan/Ethnic 1 Unknown 21,923 33,240

Terrorism Risk Index (Maplecroft) Terrorist Attacks Between June 2009 – June 2010 Country Attacks Deaths Somalia 569 1,460 Pakistan 1,661 2,789 Iraq 2,734 4,033 Afghanistan 2,818 3,311 Palestinian Occupied Territories (Gaza Strip & West Bank) 275 30 Colombia 307 263 Thailand 566 410 Philippines 301 349 Yemen 116 124

Terrorism Risk Index (Maplecroft) Terrorist Attacks Between June 2009 – June 2010 Country Group Type Attacks Deaths Injured United States Environmental/Anti-Globalization 2 Islamic Extremist (Sunni) 3 13 44 Islamic Extremist (Unknown) 1 Neonazi/Fascists/White Supremacists Secular/Political/Anarchist Total 8 15 45 United Kingdom Christian Extremist 24 11 Unknown France 19 6 Canada

Angus Reid Public Opinion Poll (November 2010) 3 in 5 Americans (59%) and 4 in 5 Britons (74%) believe terrorist attack is “very likely” or “moderately likely” to happen in their country in the next year. 38% of the Canadians surveyed believed that their country will likely be a victim of a terrorist attack in the future.

Country Group Type Attacks Deaths Injured United States Environmental/Anti-Globalization 8 4 Islamic Extremist (Sunni) 3 13 44 Islamic Extremist (Unknown) 2 1 10 Neonazi/Fascists/White Supremacists Secular/Political/Anarchist 12 Unknown 6 Total 32 16 58 United Kingdom Christian Extremist 52 703 111 7 189 75 53 790 192 112 1,682 France 11 179 28 129 310 46 Canada 5

Country Very Concerned Somewhat Concerned United States 31 39 Great Britain 34 36 France 32 41 Canada 22

Risk = Probability X Impact

Risk of terrorism: UK Group Type Attacks Deaths Injuries Christian Extremist 1 Islamic Extremist 5 52 703 Secular/Political/Anarchist 111 7 189 Total 117 58 892

Risk of terrorism: Spain Group Type Attacks Deaths Injuries Islamic Extremist 1 191 1,841 Secular/Political/Anarchist 251 10 272 Total 252 201 2,113

Risk of terrorism: europe Group Type Attacks Deaths Injuries Christian Extremist 4 1 Neonazi/Fascists/White Supremacists 2 Islamic Extremist 16 252 2,574 Secular/Political/Anarchist 1,349 295 1,870 Total 1,370 548 4,447

Risk Perception

(Slovic, 1987; Kasperson, et al., 2000; Huddy, et al., 2005) COGNITIVE HEURISTICS Availability Heuristic Probability neglect Prospect theory (Slovic, 1987; Kasperson, et al., 2000; Huddy, et al., 2005)

Availability HEURISTIC Laws Media Frequency (Tversky & Kahneman, 1982; Kuran & Sunstein, 1999; Slovic, Fischhoff, and Lichtenstein, 2000)

Probability neglect Fear Omnipresent enemy with nothing to fear and nothing to lose Rhetoric (Powerful enemy -> greater fear -> increased government action) Media heightens public fear by repeated coverage rare events; mobilizes latent fears (Kasperson, et al., 2000; Lerner & Keltner, 2001; Sunstein, 2003; Altheide, 2006; Jenkin, 2006)

Prospect theory (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979; Noll & Krier, 1990; Slovic, Fischhoff & Lichtenstein, 2000; Sunstein, 2002)

Prospect theory: COMMON versus uncommon risks Research has shown that the number of individuals who have died from worldwide terrorism is not much greater than the number of individuals who have drowned in their bathtubs in the United States. Moreover, since 2001, fewer people have been killed by international terrorism than have drowned in toilets or have died from bee stings. (Mueller, 2006)

Prospect theory: common versus uncommon risks Terrorism Automobile driving (uncommon risk) (common risk) Deaths/Madrid bombings Traffic fatalities/Spain 191 = 12 to 13 days Deaths/London bombings Traffic fatalities/UK 52 = 6 days (Adams, 2005)

Prospect theory: voluntary versus involuntary risks Despite the Madrid and London bombings, public transport (involuntary risk) is still an extremely safe form of travel. Studies have shown that the “traffic fatality rate per passenger-kilometer is less than one-tenth that of automobile travel” (Litman, 2005).

Hypothetical Scenario (p. 108)

ANY QUESTIONS?