Transit Competitiveness and Market Potential 09.11.18

Study Process Updated schedule. 8-29-18 1

Outreach to Date 350,000 Database Contacts 183,000 40 11 10 3 2 Database Contacts Multi-lingual Take Ones & Town Hall Fliers Community Events LRTP shared Community Events Service Council Presentations CBO, Faith-Based & Stakeholder Presentations Rap Sessions with Bus Divisions Working Group Meetings Customer Care Focus Group Sessions Student Education Workshops Telephone Town Halls Metro TAC Meetings Metro IWG Meetings 2

Service Parameters Measuring Transit Competitiveness All Riders Current Former Infrequent/ Non-Rider Travel Speed More Service Security (women, certain geographies) Information (non-riders) Frequency Fares First/Last Mile (elderly, higher income) First/Last Mile (women, youth, elderly) Small travel market Only 25% is transit compatible We are capturing 30% This may be as good as we should do given the limited amount of service hours Reliability Information Comfort (odors, crowding) Comfort (odors, crowding) 9

With existing levels of service, We can’t be fast, frequent, reliable all day, every day, everywhere… 10

We need to develop policy choices that balance the trade-offs in route and network design for different market needs.

Trade-Offs Speed Geographic Coverage Frequency Hours of Operation 43 Trade-Offs Speed Frequency Peak Hour Full buses in high demand areas Focus on current frequent riders Geographic Coverage Hours of Operation Off Peak Few people on board in low demand areas Pursue occasional and new riders Vs. 12

Transit is accessible to 85% of all trips made in the region. Transit Service Coverage Transit is accessible to 85% of all trips made in the region. Metro Transit Lines by Tier Express Rapid Local Limited Shuttles Busway Muni (non-Metro service)

Population and Employment Density Results – Transit Shares 15

Travel Intensity Results – Transit Shares 16

All Trip Origins (cell phone data) Transit Origins (TAP data) Results – Transit Shares Total vs Transit Trips All Trip Origins (cell phone data) Transit Origins (TAP data) 7.5M – 13M 50K – 100K 5M – 7.5M Current transit service is not always competitive 30K – 50K 2.5M – 5M 15K – 30K 650K – 2.5M 5K – 15K 250K – 650K 0 – 5K Source: TAP data - Metro and Municipal Operators & LBS Data (July through October, 2017) 17

Transit is most competitive when no more than 2x slower than auto Competitiveness of Relative Travel Times Travel Time Comparison with Auto 2% 6% 4% 8% 10% 12% 14% Transit Market Share Transit is most competitive when no more than 2x slower than auto 0 – 1 1-1.25 1.5-1.75 2-2.25 2.5-2.75 3-3.25 3.5-3.75 4-4.25 4.5-4.75 5-5.25 Transit to Drive Time Ratio

Understanding Trip Purposes Commute Trips Travel from home to a regular destination at an employment center during peak hours Work Trips Travel from home to a regular destination nearby anytime during the day or week Other Trips Occasional travel from a changing origin to a changing destination 12

The Transit Journey Walk/Wait Time On-Board Time The walk/wait and on-board time are the two factors that make up total transit travel time. 13

Travel Speed is the key factor for longer trips. When is Travel Speed important? For Long Distance Trips: 10 to 12.5 Miles Travel Speed is the key factor for longer trips. Walk/ Wait Time On-Board Time 30% of time getting to/from transit 70% of time on-board transit e.g. 10 mins e.g. 25 mins 14

Frequency is the key factor for shorter trips. When is Frequency important? For Short Distance Trips: 0 to 2.5 Miles Frequency is the key factor for shorter trips. Walk/ Wait Time On-Board Time 50% of time getting to/from transit 50% of time on-board transit e.g. 10 mins e.g. 10 mins 15

What Drives Market Share? Competitiveness and Market Potential Transit Market Share by Distance & Percent of Total Trips 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Transit Market Share Distance Bins ALL LBS % of total trips 0.00 - 1.00 mile 5,984,428 22% 1.00 - 5.00 miles 12,875,149 46% 5.00 - 10 miles 4,546,571 16% 10.00 + miles 4,414,842 Total 27,820,991 100% 16% Increasing our transit share of short distance trips to 6% means 500,000 new trips 16% 46% % of total trips 22% 0-1 miles 1-5 miles 5-10 miles 10+ miles Trip Distance

So how do we attract more short distance, non-commute trips?

More Frequent Service for Non-Commute Trips Travel and Operations by Time of Day More Frequent Service for Non-Commute Trips Share of all trips and service by time of day Other Trips Commute Trips Metro Service Current service does not match midday and evening travel demand. Owl Service AM Peak Mid-Day PM Peak Early AM Late Evening 12 – 4am 4 – 6am 6 – 9:30am 9:30am – 2pm 2 – 6:30pm 6:30pm – 12am Note: Bar chart shows data by time period while area plot shows hourly data

Market Priorities Long Distance Short Distance Commute Trips Focus on speed Peak % of market Regular Focus on frequency Other Occasional Occasional/Spontaneous b B Short Distance Long Distance Frequency Speed Market Priorities We are successful here and should continue to focus on this travel market. b Other Trips All Day Commute Trips Peak Hour 60% of all trips 2% transit market share 24% of all trips 4% transit market share 8% of all trips 5% transit market share 9% transit market share We are not competing well in our biggest potential market and need to rethink our service to better capture short trips. 27

Next Steps Date Stakeholder Topic Sept 2018 Sept 6, 2018 Oct 15, 2018 Service Councils Board Staff Metro Board Transit Competitiveness & Market Potential Sept 25, 2018 Nov 2018 External Working Group Public Meetings Tradeoffs & Policy Choices Nov 27, 2018 TBD Recommend Service Concepts (for Board approval) Jan 2019 Draft Service Concepts (Policy Guidance) Feb 2019 Final Service Concepts Updated schedule. 8-29-18 28

Thank You Metro.net/nextgen Story Map link: https://arcg.is/0G4u58