Framing the Issue and a Roadmap DR M&V Framing the Issue and a Roadmap

A Little Evaluator Humor -- XKCD DR is too various, dynamic, region-specific to organize in a nice clean way – or at least not one you want me to do here, now. So I am going to try and frame DR M&V in a couple of general ways that I think are useful for thinking through the issues. Beware of false precision http://xkcd.com/

Measurement and Verification Basics For settlement and impact evaluation -- Same basic evaluation question: What would have happened in the absence of the program/event/dispatch? How is it different from Energy Efficiency EM&V? Fewer engineers More opportunities for RCT No free-ridership And . . . .

More Signal! Less Noise(?) Demand Reduction tends to be: Bigger – both magnitude and percentage of load (usually) Shorter, more focused (always) Non-reduced load MAY be Extensive Well-behaved and informative DR should be easier For everything I say there are counter examples.

DR M&V can be Resource-Specific and Time-Sensitive. . . Or Not Hey, what about firm service level? Y N √ Y Resource- Specific N EE is in the NO/NO category primarily, DR is about half and half All DR is time specific wrt to dropping load at specific times, (and frequently there is a desire to have visibility into that through telemetry, etc) Part of DR where M&V or EM&V is not particularly time sensitive and many of the methods used are very similar to EE methods – Lots of program-level regression, etc Older school DR – interuptible rates But YES/YES – C&I program/markets w/Baseline, PTR NO/NO – Non-PTR residential (AC cycling, WH controls, behavioral), Interuptibles, Impact Evals

Resource-Specific & Time-Sensitive  Baselines Simple, Short-term load forecasting Choice of recent data (10 of 10, high 3 of 5. . . ) Simple algorithm (mean) Same day adjustment, when appropriate Transparent; bias and variability can be assessed in advance Challenges Weather-sensitive loads Highly variable loads

Easy Access Primer Google search: DR M&V Prepared for the National Forum on the National Action Plan on Demand Response: Measurement and Verification Working Group Now that I have completely confused you . . . Google search: DR M&V https://www.ferc.gov/industries/electric/indus-act/ demand-response/dr-potential/napdr-mv.pdf

Thank you. Questions? Ken Agnew Ken.agnew@DNVGL.com 608-259-9152 x70207

M&V Working Group Mission 19 November 2018 M&V Working Group Mission Scope Review work to date to establish DR M&V protocols and baseline calculation methods  Identify Accepted methods and practices for DR performance measurement Areas still at issue Gaps related to protocols and practices for specific types of DR programs, emerging technologies, or markets Provide a path forward for industry and stakeholders towards analytically valid, widely accepted DR M&V protocols or best practices.

Emphasis: calculation of DR performance Wholesale market settlement Between ISO and market participant or ISO program participant Retail settlement DR aggregator or utility program operator and retail customer Program impact evaluation for retail or ISO program Guidance, not standards