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& #noiOnDemand GOTV DATA Katie Ellis New Organizing Institute

& #noiOnDemand INTRODUCTIONS NOI On Demand You Norms

& #noiOnDemand FOLLOWING THE LAW ELECTIONS.NEWORGANIZING.COM

& #noiOnDemand FOLLOWING THE LAW

& #noiOnDemand Presenter: & #noiOnDemand Katie Ellis Data Training Manager New Organizing Institute

& #noiOnDemand

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& OBJECTIVE In todays session, youll learn how to choose which voters to contact during GOTV (Get Out the Vote), recruit and allocate volunteer efforts, and get your logistics in order.

& #noiOnDemand AGENDA Introduction Review of GOTV Strategy Building Universes Planning Volunteer Capacity GOTV Logistics Calculations Making Adjustments Wrap Up

& #noiOnDemand & #noiOnDemand Strategic Use of Limited Resources Setting Strategic Goals & Maintaining Accountability Demonstrating Success & Power WHY DO WE NEED DATA?

& #noiOnDemand Strategic Use of Limited Resources Setting Strategic Goals & Maintaining Accountability Demonstrating Success & Power WHY DO WE NEED DATA?

& #noiOnDemand & #noiOnDemand LIMITED RESOURCES People Money Time

& #noiOnDemand BUILDING OUR WIN TURNOUT HISTORY PRESUMED SUPPORT LOWUNKNOWNHIGH x HIGH TURNOUT PERSUASION HIGH TURNOUT BASE SPORADIC x SPORADIC TURNOUT PERSUASION SPORADIC TURNOUT BASE LOW xx LOW TURNOUT BASE NEW xxNEW BASE

& #noiOnDemand TURNOUT HISTORY PRESUMED SUPPORT LOWUNKNOWNHIGH x HIGH TURNOUT PERSUASION HIGH TURNOUT BASE SPORADIC x SPORADIC TURNOUT PERSUASION SPORADIC TURNOUT BASE LOW xx LOW TURNOUT BASE NEW xxNEW BASE PERSUASION PROGRAM

& #noiOnDemand TURNOUT HISTORY PRESUMED SUPPORT LOWUNKNOWNHIGH x HIGH TURNOUT PERSUASION HIGH TURNOUT BASE SPORADIC x SPORADIC TURNOUT PERSUASION SPORADIC TURNOUT BASE LOW xx LOW TURNOUT BASE NEW xxNEW BASE GET OUT THE VOTE PROGRAM

& #noiOnDemand TURNOUT HISTORY PRESUMED SUPPORT LOWUNKNOWNHIGH x HIGH TURNOUT PERSUASION HIGH TURNOUT BASE SPORADIC x SPORADIC TURNOUT PERSUASION SPORADIC TURNOUT BASE LOW xx LOW TURNOUT BASE NEW xxNEW BASE GET OUT THE VOTE PROGRAM

& #noiOnDemand GOTV - Get Out The Vote refers to activities organizations and campaigns take in the run up to an election to maximize the number of supporters that turn out to vote. Universe - The set of voters you will attempt to turn out to vote on election day. Modeling Scores – A prediction (based on voter file, polling, and commercial data) as to how a voter will behave. SOME BASIC TERMS

& #noiOnDemand BUILDING YOUR UNIVERSE MODELING PARTISANSHIP DEMOGRAPHICS ID/SUPPORT VOTE HISTORY

& #noiOnDemand MARRYING THE GRID WITH VAN Key Question: How do we match up our conceptual definitions of universes with actual lists of real people?

& #noiOnDemand VAN VARIABLES Voter Status Demographics Models Census Data (sometimes) Geographic Contact history Current and old lists

& #noiOnDemand VOTE LIKELIHOOD What is the best predictor of an individual voting in an upcoming election: – In the 2012 General Election? 2008! – In the 2014 General Election? 2010! – A special election? Uhhh… Look for other non-regular or low turnout elections Key factors are competitiveness and similar date Turnout Models

& #noiOnDemand VOTE LIKELIHOOD IN 2012 Turnout Level Turnout Definition Vote HistoryScore High Medium Low < 30 3/3 Midterms OR /2 Presidentials OR 1-2/3 Midterms All other vote histories

& #noiOnDemand SUPPORT LEVELS How do you know who supports your issue or not? – Polling – Organizational Issue or Mission Supporter level assumptions are trickier than vote historyoften many variables.

& #noiOnDemand Choice Support LevelLowMediumHigh Group Definition Middle-age and older men Middle age women Young and older women, young men Defined in VAN? All voters SUBTRACT Women SUBTRACT Age <35 Women SUBTRACT Age <35 SUBTRACT Age 60+ All Voters age <35 ADD Women age 60+ CHOICE SUPPORT LEVEL IN 2012

& #noiOnDemand Turnout Support LowMediumHigh Medium Low SUPPORT X TURNOUT = ? All Voters REMOVE Women REMOVE age <35 NARROW t/o 70+ Age <35, ADD Women 60+ NARROW Turnout 70+ Age <35, ADD Women 60+ NARROW Turnout Age <35, ADD Women 60+ NARROW Turnout < 30 Women REMOVE age <35 REMOVE 60+ NARROW t/o 70+ Women REMOVE <35 REMOVE NARROW t/o Women REMOVE age <35 REMOVE 60+ NARROW t/o<30 All Voters REMOVE Women REMOVE age< 35 NARROW t/o All Voters REMOVE Women REMOVE age <35 NARROW t/o <30

& #noiOnDemand Turnout Support LowMediumHigh Medium Low ADD REAL NUMBERS 456

& #noiOnDemand How long is one canvass shift? How many doors can one volunteer knock per hour? How many doors can one volunteer knock per canvass shift? Do volunteers go out alone or in pairs? How many shifts are required to knock on 456 doors? CALCULATING VOLUNTEERS

& #noiOnDemand How long is a phonebanking shift? How many calls can a volunteer make per hour? How many calls can a volunteer make per shift? How many shifts are required to make 456 calls? CALCULATING VOLUNTEERS

& #noiOnDemand How many calling shifts are there in a day? How many phone lines do you need? How many pizzas should you order? EDAY PHONEBANK LOGISTICS

& #noiOnDemand & #noiOnDemand 250,000 doors –How many shifts are required? 15 organizers –How many shifts per organizer? 10 days –How many shifts per organizer per day? GOTV PROGRAM PLANNING

& #noiOnDemand & #noiOnDemand 250,000 doors –How many pages? 30 pages/minute –How many hours? 1500 pages/toner cartridge –How many toner cartridges? $30/toner cartridge –How much money in toner? PRINTING LOGISTICS

& #noiOnDemand & #noiOnDemand When does all of your data need to be entered? PRINTING LOGISTICS

& #noiOnDemand & #noiOnDemand When does all of your data need to be entered? PRINTING LOGISTICS

& #noiOnDemand If need 300 volunteers and can only find 100, whats next? –Find the BEST voters within your targets Constituency Turnout likelihood Party ID Etc ADJUSTING CAPACITY

& #noiOnDemand & #noiOnDemand QUESTIONS?

& #noiOnDemand & #noiOnDemand Evaluation!

& #noiOnDemand OX

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