Budget and Caseload Update Policy and Fiscal Committee March 7, 2011

FY11 Caseload Overview FY11 Projected Deficit ARRA Spending Table of Contents FY11 Caseload Overview FY11 Projected Deficit ARRA Spending

FY11 Caseload Overview Income Eligible: There is a $5.3M projected deficiency. This represents a significant increase compared with last month’s projected deficiency of $3.87M. The actual voucher cost in January is $300K higher than forecasted in December. Projecting this additional $300K for five months through June is directly related to the $1.5M increase in the deficiency. This deficit projection could be greatly affected by the closure of voucher access. February billing (processed at the end of March) will give the first real indication of the impact of access closure we can expect for the remaining months in this fiscal year. EEC will lower the deficiency in IE by transferring the cost for the children paid in IE from July to January prior to the promulgation of the Transition Supportive Child Care (TSCC) Policy. Though extremely cumbersome and time consuming to transfer hundreds of transfers, it is an important budget transaction as it reflects EEC’s continued responsibility to guard against a deficiency in the IE account. The value of the TSCC transfer is $1.17M. The transfer of $1.17M will lower the projected deficiency to $4.19M.

FY11 Caseload Overview, Continued Supportive: The projected surplus has increased from $12M to just over $12.3M. EEC assumes caseload will reach the maximum amount projected for the remainder of the year. If it does not (and it could be reasonably argued that it will not) this surplus may grow to more than the $12.3M. The surplus will be lowered by $1.17M once EEC transfers into the account from IE the $1.17M in TSCC costs. EEC has also built $500K into June’s contract projection in anticipation of historical end-of-year adjustments that typically occur. DTA-Related Caseload: The deficiency decreased $500K from $8M to $7.5M. The actual expenses in January were nearly $10.2M; we had forecasted $10.6M. EEC has reduced the deficiency by January’s actual expense, but continues to anticipate caseload to increase in succeeding months.

Fiscal Year 2011 Income Eligible (3000-4060) * Actual Figures Previous month projected a $3.87M deficiency.

Fiscal Year 2011 Income Eligible Caseload Projected Cost FY11 Approp: $233.5M (Amount in Thousands) Blue represents actual amount billed

Data source: Data warehouse report server generates report via EEC Intranet\reports\Board Meeting Reports Use http://eec-dwh-bos-001/ReportServer?%2fData+Warehouse&rs:Command=ListChildren and update spreadsheet below with the current month data Spreadsheet framework location: Sysdevel\Fy2010 Reports Transfer\Board Reports specs\YYYYMMDD IE voucher attrition.xlsx; voucher IE attrition tab

Fiscal Year 2011 DTA Related (3000-4050) Previous month projected a $8M deficiency.

FY2011 DTA Caseload Projected Cost FY11 Approp: $127.3M (Amount in Thousands) -Blue = Actual amount billed -Green = Projection

Fiscal Year 2011 Supportive Care (3000-3050) Previous month projected a surplus of $12.0M.

Fiscal Year 2011 Supportive Caseload Projected Cost FY11 Approp: $85.7M (Amount in Thousands) Light Blue represents actual amounts billed.

FY11 Caseload Overview – Summary

FY11 Caseload Overview - Solutions Step 1 - Supplemental Language: Section 23 of House bill #37 (Governor’s proposed Supplemental budget) allows EEC to transfer the surplus from the Supportive account to the Income Eligible and DTA-Related caseload accounts. This would partially remedy the current projected deficiencies in both accounts. Issue: Timing. EEC does not know if this bill will pass in the Legislature. If the Legislature does not intend to pass this section we will continue to inform ANF that there will be a deficit in the DTA account (which is a reflection of the requirement to serve all referred cases) and in the IE account (which will require a supplemental allocation to remediate).

FY11 Caseload Overview - Solutions Step 2 – Further Caseload Closure Actions: Based on current projections, an overall deficiency of $560K would still persist in the caseload accounts despite expanded transferability. Actions Close sibling access through vouchers and contract slots. Close contract slots for providers that are over 5% in the use of flex pool slots. Step 3 – Transfer of Costs: As noted earlier, EEC will transfer TSCC costs from the Income Eligible account to the Supportive Account.

FY11 Caseload: Waitlist *As of February 27, 2011. This number is an increase of 914 children from the January update, or a 5.36% increase.

ARRA Spending Update

ARRA Spending by Month

ARRA Spending Update We have spent $10.18M in ARRA funds (42.51%) through February.  The goal was to have spent $10.42M.  We missed our mark by $240K which is not substantial. We are confident we will recover this gap.