Decision to be made Board proposed to consolidate Lincoln Trails Council districts from 3 to 2 Reduce number of district executives from 3 to 2 Concern brought by board members that reducing district executive staff may affect membership and fundraising (experienced DE’s proven effective) Ad-hoc committee formed to study decision and bring recommendations to the board at March 2017 meeting Historical membership and fundraising data from 2008 – 2016 studied Membership trends by district and by unit type Evaluated membership impact of experienced DE vs. new DE Fundraising trends by district Evaluated fundraising impact of experienced DE vs. new DE

BSA National Membership 2008-2016 Key Observations: 2016 National BSA youth membership 13% lower than 2008-2016 average (22% lower than 2008 peak) National membership recovered slightly in 2016, down only 1% vs. 2015 Area 3 regional data follows national data trend

BSA National Membership breakdown Key Observations: 2016 National cub scout total recovered slightly vs. 2015 2016 National boy scout total showed larger decline than 2015 – suspect delayed reaction of “pipeline” effect from erosion of cub scout totals in earlier years

Area 3 Membership Comparison by Council Key Observations: All councils in Area 3 affected by national down trend 2013 - 2015 Several councils have stabilized and seen slight recovery in 2016 Note – Area breakdown data by council was not clean – had to remove Venturing numbers for clean comparison

Area 3 Select Councils Membership Comparison Key Observations: Central Illinois councils (PL, AL, LTC) all down significantly from 10 year averages Prairelands stabilized and saw slight recovery in 2015 & 2016 Abraham Lincoln on steady downward trend since 2010

District geographic boundaries & personnel

Lincoln Trails Council – Membership Current Reality Key Observations: 2016 LTC youth membership 36% lower than 2008-2016 average, 12% lower than 2015 Slight decline of Available Youth in 2015 & 2016, only 2% lower than 2008-2013 average

Lincoln Trails Council vs. National Membership trends Key Observations: Major national decline in 2013 & 2014 vs. LTC declines in 2013, 2014, 2015 (largest) LTC 2016 down 23% more than National and Regional decreases from average (36% vs. 13%) LTC 2016 down more from average than any other council in Area 3 (2nd AL, 3rd PL)

District membership breakdown Key Observations: Sharp decline in Two Rivers membership, starting in 2013 Slow decline in Redhawk since 2013 Available youth by district fairly stable and opportunity balanced

Scoutreach membership breakdown Key Observations: 2016 Scoutreach membership 62% lower than 2008-2013 average 400 member loss between 2014 to 2015

Model input example

Model output example

LTC Membership Model Results Key Observation: Loss of 1 DE results in ~430 scout difference in membership over 4 years Key Observations: Blue lines represent midpoint and models 23% recovery in LTC membership (still 13% down from 2008-2016 average mimicking national/regional 2016 data) Red lines represent the minimum of the 95% confidence interval (ie. Minimum predicted membership) Green lines represent the max of the 95% confidence interval (ie. Maximum predicted membership)

Membership model breakdown by district

Membership growth strategy & opportunities Quick win priorities Two Rivers Cub Scouting – largest opportunity for recovery Redhawk Cub Scouting – recruit for new units or resuscitate old units Fix Scoutreach Analysis in progress Prioritized zip codes for opportunity vs. current membership Units & chartering organizations lost by zip code

Fundraising – FOS pledges Key Observations: Total FOS fundraising does not follow membership (YE 2016 falls in average range) Loss of DE does not correspond to loss of FOS fundraising (Two River 2016 up from 2015) New DE results in temporary loss of FOS fundraising – recovers with no statistically significant difference over 3-5 years

Fundraising – Popcorn Sales Key Observations: Popcorn sales trend follows membership (strong tie to Cub scouts) 4 year declining trend on popcorn sales 2016 down 14% from 2010-2016 average