Scenario 1: Shared Home Stagnation First: No breakthrough in mutual relations in either the EU or Russia until the mid-2020s Realism Returns: After a lost.

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Presentation transcript:

Scenario 1: Shared Home Stagnation First: No breakthrough in mutual relations in either the EU or Russia until the mid-2020s Realism Returns: After a lost decade, Russian elites initiate reforms, whilst the EU is happy to re-engage with Moscow Pragmatism Prevails: By 2030, the EU and Russia focus on shared interests. EaP countries are no longer forced to take a decision for or against either side.

Scenario 2: Common Home Transformed Russia: Economic downturn leads to reforms and improved EU-Russia relations Depoliticised Energy: Decreasing importance of oil and gas reduces conflict in the energy field Common Interests: As new global powers rise, Russia and the EU join forces

Scenario 3: Broken Home Protracted Conflict: No solution to the Ukraine crisis, conflict lasts to 2030 Interdependance Unwound: Relative success of authoritarian modernisation in Russia and the energy transition in the EU: both sides can act independently Unstable Neighbourhood: The EaP countries remain objects of competition: A zone of instability in Europe.

Scenario 4: Divided Home Cold Peace: EU and Russia locked in stalemate: Interdependance hinders further deterioration, but improvements seem impossible due to value divide. Contested Neighbourhood: EaP countries falter between East and West. Lacking Transformation: Europe as a whole loses touch with the global power centres.