“Political Economy of Institutions and Long Run Growth” When political offer creates its own demand: The case of anti-EU politics in Visegrad countries B. Najman Y. Zanko ASSA 2018 Annual Meeting ACES session “Political Economy of Institutions and Long Run Growth”

Motivations For if the future European order does not emerge from a broadening European Union, based on the best European values and willing to defend and transmit them, it could well happen that the organization of this future will fall into the hands of a cast of fools, fanatics, populists and demagogues waiting for their chance and determined to promote the worst European traditions. And there are, unfortunately, more than enough of those.” Vaclav Havel Speech to European Parliament, March 1994

Motivations - Context Nationalist experience and wars in former Yugoslavia (1980- ) Political radicalisation / populism in the EU and especially in Visegrad countries, but also recently in Austria Wars in Ukraine (since 2014) and in Syria (since 2011) Disagreement within the EU: refugees Elections in Poland, Hungary, Czech Rep. in 2018

Visegrad vs. the EU Why looking at Visegrad countries? Former communist experience but within EU since 2004 Anti-EU one of the main slogan political supply Major changes in the legal framework On the road to Autocracy? EU Is the main target of populist parties

Election results in Hungary

Literature Review Euroscepticism Spectrum Economic conditions and Euroscepticism Political institutions and Euroscepticism Media and Euroscepticism

Approach We assume that, under certain conditions, extreme political supply creates its own demand Populist parties may create a political environment (counter powers and instability) allowing them to hold most of the powers In this context, elections are not anymore democratic Manipulation of feelings

Weak or challenged counter powers Threats and instability during the campaign Manipulation of feelings undermining facts Lack of discussions and moderate forums Radical political supply dominate elections

Condition for fair and free elections Peaceful discussions –no threats Violence and conflicts can be political tools Stable check and balance institutions (judges, …) Same access to media Referendum (Hungary) can be misused

Methodology - Data Difficult to test. Subjective variables. We use the Eurobarometer dataset, 2004-2016 Almost 300000 obs. 28 countries Econometric analysis (still preliminary) of perceptions on EU future and trust (probit and oprobit) We control for gender, age, education, settlement, prof. status, country and year…

TRUST IN INSTITUTIONS: EUROPEAN UNION

EU STATEMENTS: BETTER FUTURE OUTSIDE THE EU

Benefits from being member of the EU in 2011, across V4 countries

Optimism about EU’s future

Immigration

Econometric Results V4 are anticipating a possible EU exit Young, Women, Educated, Large cities are pro-EU Internet users and people discussing political issues tend to be pro EU Economic Crisis and HH Financial problems reinforce the anti-EU perceprions (bills)