The Ukraine Crisis and Great Power Relations in the Future FENG Shaolei (HKUST, CCTR) 20 Apr, 2015

I. When Ukraine Crisis will Come to an End To a certain degree, Minsk Treaty II has stopped big scale military conflicts, but nobody can tell when the Ukrainian crisis will come to an end.

II. Great Powers’ Positions towards the Ukraine Crisis (1) EU’s Position and Internal Background

II. Great Powers’ Positions towards the Ukraine Crisis (2) US’s Choice and Its Domestic Motivations

II. Great Powers’ Positions towards the Ukraine Crisis (3) Russia’s Response and Its Internal Political Tendency

III. Some Root Causes for Tension between Russia and the West Back to History? Russian Expansion? Respect Sovereignty and Territorial Integrity? Conflict of Civilizations? OR Maintain Status Quo? West’s Heavy Pressure? Maintain Traditional Sphere of Influence? Struggle of Nations?

IV. China’s Official Positions China “respects the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine. Meanwhile, acknowledges the complicated history.”

V. The BRICS’ Stance on Crimea When Russia annexed Crimea, the BRICS countries almost simultaneously opted for neutrality. In March 2014, all the BRICS countries apart from Russia abstained from voting on a United Nations General Assembly resolution criticizing Russia’s acceptance of the Crimea referendum. In the same month, BRICS foreign ministers chastised their Australian counterpart for proposing that Russia be excluded from the G20 summit.

V. The BRICS’ Stance on Crimea These collective actions signal the BRICS countries’ unwillingness to join the West’s isolation of Russia and that they have become more influential and independent. But, why?

VI. Will the Territorial Conflict on Crimea be Repeated in Asia? (1) No Similar Great Geopolitical Changes in East Asia NATO’s eastward expansion since the end of the Cold War has greatly impacted the Eurasian geopolitical sphere. No similar expansion or major changes are occurring in Asia, which is therefore not susceptible to large-scale conflicts like those in Ukraine and Crimea.

VI. Will the Territorial Conflict on Crimea be Repeated in Asia? (2) Asia, as the world’s economic engine, is likely to maintain peace. Asian countries, which have the world’s fastest growing economies, seek to solve problems through political negotiations.

VI. Will the Territorial Conflict on Crimea be Repeated in Asia? (3) Asia vs Europe: Different Regional History When Europe was still fighting the Cold War, China had already begun to normalize relations with the United States, Japan (as early as 1972), and other countries. However, Asia must still grapple with fallout from the Cold War.

VI. Will the Territorial Conflict on Crimea be Repeated in Asia? (4) Asian Duality in Security and Economy Many Asian countries depend on the United States for security but expect China to play a bigger role economically.

VII. The Trinity Perspective of Legitimacy，History -Cultural Identification and Geopolitics

VIII. Some Basic Features of Current International Order

(1) The international and domestic legitimacy, IX. Conclusion As far as I can see, international conflicts like the Ukraine Crisis can only be solved under the circumstance when consideration is given to all these three aspects:   (1) The international and domestic legitimacy, (2) The rational culture –historical identification, (3) The competitiveness capability in geopolitics.

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