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Conceptual Overview SHIRAZ Landscape Land Use Processes Land use & landscape processes affect habitat Freshwater Habitat Freshwater habitat affects productivity & capacity SHIRAZ Biological Response

The SHIRAZ model Developed for Muckelshoot Tribe in WA to evaluate ESA recovery planning for salmon Uses flexible life history, with reach by reach specification of habitat characteristics Basic structure can be simplified and adapted to meet various needs (i.e. it’s a framework) Built with Visual Basic & integrates with Excel

Alternative life histories Spawners Adults Spawners Eggs Fry First winter residents Smolts Ocean residents Adults

Relate life history to habitat Stage 1 Habitat Stage 2 Habitat Stage 3

Multistage Beverton-Holt Model (Mousalli & Hilborn 1986) Ns ≡ individuals alive at stage s p ≡ max. survival rate from s  s+1 ≡ “productivity” c ≡ max. N producible at s+1 ≡ “capacity”

Key Attributes In general Freshwater survival driven by relationships between habitat, p, & c c determined by quantity of habitat p determined by quality of habitat Also assume Freshwater survival is density-dependent Marine survival is density-independent

Habitat Variables Inherent “hard-wired” Generic spawning area rearing area % fines % impervious Generic Increase or decrease c & p around a “reference” level Multiplier specified by a general quadratic relationship Based on difference between present state and reference Multiplier = exp[f1(state – ref) + f2(state – ref)2]

Example of Habitat Relationship

Changing habitat variables 1) Underlying trend (i.e. annual increase or decrease) Hmax trend>0 trend<0 2) Intervention (i.e. bulk addition or removal) Hmax (+) (-) Time

Other model features Hatchery influence Harvest strategies Ocean survival

Integration with PRISM Land Use Landscape Processes PRISM Freshwater Habitat SHIRAZ Biological Response

Linking landscape to life history Stage 1 Climate FW Habitat Stage 2 Ocean Habitat Hydrology Stage 3 Land use Landscape Processes

Current status Programming interactive improvements Researching habitat-fish relationships Researching hydrology-habitat relationships

Moving Forward Choose watershed (Snohomish or Puyallip/White?) Add variable hydrology inputs Allow for various “what if” scenarios

Example scenario ? Fry survival Ambient Decrease Increase % fines Stream flow % fines Precipitation Stream flow

Ocean regime shifts Evaluation of alternative harvest strategies should be robust to uncertainty about future ocean changes May want to include known ocean changes based on historical data

SHIRAZ Summary It’s a modeling framework Uses flexible life history Spatially explicit habitat characteristics Basic structure can be simplified and adapted