The Economic Development of the Global Economy 2018

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Presentation transcript:

The Economic Development of the Global Economy 2018 Instructor: David Kleykamp, Tamkang University Department of Diplomacy and International Relations

Basic Overview of the World Economy Hour 1 Basic Overview of the World Economy USA Euro Area Japan China

In this overview, we will confine ourselves to real growth, (2) inflation, (3) unemployment, (4) business confidence (5) currency for the countries or regions.

Real Growth Annualized QoQ Inflation Annualized MoM

PMI Manufacturing - Confidence Unemployment Rate PMI Manufacturing - Confidence

The Value of the US Dollar Stock Market

Real Growth Annualized QoQ Inflation YoY

PMI Manufacturing - Confidence Unemployment Rate PMI Manufacturing - Confidence

The Value of the Euro Stock Market

Real Growth Annualized QoQ Inflation MoM

PMI Manufacturing - Confidence Unemployment Rate PMI Manufacturing - Confidence

The Value of the Yen Stock Market

Real Growth QoQ Inflation MoM

PMI Manufacturing - Confidence Current Account to GDP PMI Manufacturing - Confidence

The Value of the Yuan Stock Market

Summary Hour 1 USA – GDP 4.1%, Inflation 1.2%, Unemployment 4%, PMI 55.4 trend up, USD trend is up, stocks okay but tech stocks down GREEN EA – GDP 1.4% trend down, 2.0% trend up, unemployment 8.4% trend down, PMI 55.1 trend down, Euro/USD stable at 1.1652 value ha been falling somewhat, Eurostoxx 50 falling and choppy GREEN Japan – GDP -0.2% slow, inflation MoM 1.2%/yr, slightly higher, deflation in Mar. and Apr., Unemployment 2.2% sharp drop from 2/5 previous month, wage growth slow, PMI huge drop in July 53 to 51.6 trend is down, Yen is at 111 to USD trend is up, stocks flat ORANGE China – GDP 7.4% very high since Q1 was only 5.7%, Mar. – June deflation -1.2%, Current Account to GDP falling now at 1.3%, PMI strong and stable, RMB/USD 6.8 recent strong increase, Shanghai stocks fell 22% since Jan 2018 trend has been down. ORANGE

Next up: The Importance of Productivity and Saving