Warnings: Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes by Clark and Eddy, 2017 Summary of Chapter 10 The Computer Scientist: Artificial Intelligence by Charles Tappert, CSIS, Pace University

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Synopsis

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Contents – Part 2

Chap 10 The Computer Scientist: Artificial Intelligence link to PDF Predicted sequence of events Weak AI – where we are now Strong AI – coming Singularity – coming Superintelligence – coming End of humanity – maybe?

The Computer Scientist: Artificial Intelligence – Definitions AI – a computer program that can perform a task that normally must be done by a human Weak AI – the type of AI that runs everyday devices like computers, smartphones, cars, etc. Strong AI – AI that can do what a human does The Singularity – when machines become as intelligent as humans Superintelligence – an AI smarter than humans Intelligence Explosion – era of superintelligence

The Computer Scientist: Artificial Intelligence – Warning Nearly all AI scientists predict the intelligence explosion will occur in the next 70 years Most predict it will happen by 2040 Stephen Hawking warns – “likely to be the best or worst thing ever to happen to humanity, so there’s huge value in getting it right” Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk echo the concerns Eliezer Yudkowsky is terrified! He is the Cassandra here

The Computer Scientist: Artificial Intelligence – Cassandra Eliezer Yudkowsky – images video Dropped out of school after 8th grade Founded Machine Intelligence Research Institute Focuses on foundational mathematical research to ensure that AI has a positive impact on humanity He is pretty sure he will fail – humanity is doomed!

The Computer Scientist: Artificial Intelligence – Demon Humans will relentlessly pursue the creation of superintelligence because it holds unimaginable promise to transform the world A superintelligence will recursively self-improve to levels of intelligence that we may not comprehend Carve new paths of discovery in undiscovered fields Fueled by perpetual improvements to its own source code and the creation of new robotic tools May be the last invention humans need to make

The Computer Scientist: Artificial Intelligence – Solution Yudkowsky Superintelligence must be designed with ethics Checks and balances to ensure AI growth is controllable Once AI can reprogram itself it will be too late A “wait and see” approach not reasonable Birth of superintelligence could be 5 years out, 40 years out, 60 years out, nobody knows By the time you know, it will be too late to do anything about it

The Computer Scientist: Artificial Intelligence – Form What form will a superintelligence take? Many envision a super intelligent robot More likely is a “disembodied AI” No discrete, tangible location in a single machine Program on interconnected computers located anywhere Attempts to contain potentially dangerous AI will fail

The Computer Scientist: Artificial Intelligence – When In 2013, 550 of the world’s leading AI experts were polled – they predicted human-level AI 10% chance by 2022 50% chance by 2040 90% chance by 2075

The Computer Scientist: Artificial Intelligence – Videos Elon Musk Nick Bostrom Ray Kurzweil Superintelligence - Feb 2017 Elon Musk and other panellists talk AI and answer the question: “If we succeed in building human-level Artificial general intelligence (AGI), then what are the likely outcomes? What would we like to happen?” Elon Musk – Nick Bostrom – Ray Kurzweil