Climate Change and Livelihoods in Africa: Overview of Issues David Kraybill, Professor Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics Ohio State University Climate Change and Livelihoods in Sub-Saharan Africa Workshop Center for African Studies, Ohio State University May 15, 2009

Climate Change, Impact, Mitigation, Adaptation Human/environ-ment interface CLIMATE CHANGE Exposure Initial impacts Vulnerabilities Impacts MITIGATION of climate change Autonomous adaptations From Smit and Pilifosova, Adaptation to Climate Change in the Context of Sustainable Development and Equity Net impacts Planned ADAPTATIONS Policy responses Adapted from Barry Smit and Olga Pilifosova, Adaptation to Climate Change in the Context of Sustainable Development and Equity

Themes in Climate Change Climate analysis Mitigation Impact Adaptation

Theme 1: Climate analysis

Analyzing past trends Arid and semi-arid areas are becoming drier in northern, western, eastern, and parts of southern Africa Equatorial Africa and parts of southern Africa are becoming wetter National meteorological services have improved in many African countries in recent years Growing awareness of importance of meteorological information, especially for agriculture Improved technologies of data gathering and forecasting Historical meteorological data series are short, incomplete, and available for relatively few locations

Predicting the future Global Climate Models (GCMs) Capture atmospheric-ocean interactions Deficient in modeling El Nino-Southern Oscillation and land cover, which are particularly important in African climate Needed: regional climate models for Africa that operate at finer spatial resolution than GCMs and that incorporate sub-grid processes such as land-use change and convection

Theme 2: Mitigation

Africa’s contribution to GHGs At world level, Africa generates a small share of GHG emissions compared to high-income countries Within Sub-Saharan Africa, sectoral shares of GHG emissions: 60% from land-use change and forestry 23% from energy 13% from agriculture 3% from waste 1% from industrial processes Data comes from Bryan et al., Global Carbon Markets, IFPRI, 2008.

Mitigation through carbon trading Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of Kyoto Protocol favors industrial energy and power projects Soil carbon sequestration and avoided- deforestation projects excluded from CDM Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for only 1.4% of CDM projects Africa’s has enormous potential for mitigation via agriculture and forestry Data comes from Bryan et al., Global Carbon Markets, IFPRI, 2008.

The African Climate Solution An African initiative on climate mitigation, adaptation, and improved rural livelihoods Launched at 2008 meeting of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change by 26 African countries Emphasizes carbon sequestration through reforestation, afforestation, agro-forestry, and reduced tillage

Theme 3: Impact

Types of climate stimuli Impact and adaptation studies generally focus on climatic averages of temperature and moisture Often ignored, but very important: Variability Extremes Averages typically fall within the coping range while extremes often fall outside

Impact sTUDIES in Africa BY SECTOR Agriculture Crop production Livestock production Food security Forests Water resources Changes in runoff, river flow, and lake levels Health Vector-borne diseases: malaria, dengue, leishmaniasis

Assumptions in impact modeling No adaptation – an assumption in early studies Exogenous adaptation – many studies examine impact of climate change assuming given levels of adaptation Endogenous adaptation – increasingly, researchers attempt to analyze impacts and adaptation using integrated models that include human and environmental feedback mechanisms

Theme 4: Adaptation

Definition of Adaptation Adjustments of ecological, social, or economic systems in response to – Actual climatic stimuli Expected climatic changes Includes changes in – Practices Processes Structures Aim is to – Avoid or reduce potential damage from climate change, or Capture benefits from climate change Can occur at level of household, community, group, region, sector, country, groups of countries

Adaptive capacity The ability of a system, region, or community to make livelihood-enhancing changes in response to climate change Ability to cope with changes and uncertainties in averages, variability, and extremes of climatic variables Increase in the “coping range” Reduces vulnerability to adverse effects of climatic changes Promotes sustainable development

Determinants of adaptive capacity Economic resources Private and public Poverty is “rough indicator of the ability to cope” Technology Examples: warning systems, irrigation, crop breeding, flood control measures Information and skills Knowledge of hazards, ability to assess risks, ability to implement change Infrastructure Examples: roads, irrigation canals, dams, weather monitoring and forecasting systems

Determinants… Equity Grassroots participation in decision-making Access to (not just availability of) resources is vital for adaptation Grassroots participation in decision-making Local contexts determining impacts and adaptation are heterogeneous and complex Empowerment of households and communities Institutions Shift risk from individuals to public Examples: land use policies, water management policies and organizations, insurance, agricultural research system, financial markets, mutual aid

Choices in Research design Temporal scale Short-run vs. long-run Spatial scale Local vs. national National vs. regional System level Climatic Ecological Economic Political Social/cultural Research methods Modeling vs. less formal methods Integration ?

Interlinked aspects of climate change Mitigation Impact Human/Environment Interface Adaptation

Interlinked aspects of climate change Mitigation Impact Human/Environment Interface Adaptation