1 The Changing Dynamics of the Global Market for the Highly-skilled Andrew Wyckoff OECD Advancing Knowledge and the Knowledge Economy National Academies, Washington, D.C. 10 January 2005

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3 OECD (2004), Learning for tomorrows world: First results from PISA 2003, Table 2.5c, p.356. PISA: Mean mathematics scores – overall (All) US mean score ranks in range 24 th to 28 th in 41 countries.

4 US as the benchmark

5 Competitiveness Rankings Source: IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook, 2004 and World Economic Forums Global Competitiveness Report, IMD 2004/2003 WEF 2004/2003 1US / USFIN / FIN 2SING / LUXUS / US 3CAN / FINSWE / SWE 4AUST / SINGTAIW / DNK 5ICE / DNKDNK / TAIW 6HK / CANNOR / SING

6 How could the authors of A Nation at Risk have gotten it so wrong?

7 Foreign PhD Students % of total enrolment, 2001Number by host country, 2001

8 % of Foreign S&E US Degree Recipients with plans to stay in the US Source: NSF, S&E indicators, 2004

9 * Age 15+, ISCED 5/6 Stock of Highly Skilled* Immigrants in OECD Countries Source: Dumont and LeMaitre, 2004

10 Changing Dynamics of the Market 9/11 EU & Japan China & India MNEs

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12 Annual Percent Change of International Student Enrolment in US Higher-education Institutions Source: IIE (2004), Open Doors Report,

13 New Demand: the EU & Japan

14 EU Lisbon & Barcelona Goals Barcelona 2002 [o]verall spending on R&D and innovation …should be increased with the aim of approaching 3% of GDP by Two-thirds of this new investment should come from the private sector. Lisbon 2000 The Union has today set itself a new strategic goal for the next decade: to become the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based economy in the world capable of sustainable economic growth with more and better jobs and greater social cohesion.

15 Additional Researchers Required to meet EC Barcelona 3% R&D Target

16 Japanese Foreign Workers w Special and/or Technical Skills Source: METI, 2003

17 New Demand: China & India

18 Number of Chinese students enrolled in tertiary education in the United States, Japan and the EU, thousands

19 Source: Weiguo and Zhaohui, 2004 Doctoral Degrees Awarded in China

20 Number of researchers, thousands of FTE

21 Growth of R&D expenditure, annual average growth rate (based on national currencies in constant prices) Source: Schaaper, 2004

22 Gross Domestic Expenditure on R&D (2002, $Bill GDP PPPs) US277.1 Japan106.8 China72.0 Germany53.9 France36.6 UK31.0 Korea23.5 Source: OECD, MSTI, 2004/1

23 Note: Data are by priority year and are provisional. Source: OECD, Patent Database, July 2003 Patent applications to the SIPO, by residence of inventors

24 USPTO Patents by Chinese Inventors By Priority Date Source: OECD, Patent Database, December 2004

25 Policy Implications: an Initial Mapping 1. National Systems of Innovation (NSI) –Short-term: must compete in this global market –Long-term: need to increase indigenous supply –Increased global competition will make it will be more difficult for young researchers to be recognised, publish and get appointments at top-institutions (D.Hicks)

26 Policy Implications: an Initial Mapping 2. Macroeconomic Effects –Demand, Supply, then Price –Return flows will diffuse and create pressure to adopt push best practices (Saxenian ) –Need for more global coordination of economic policies and data (esp. MNEs & flows of highly skilled) to guide these policies.

27 Policy Implications: an Initial Mapping 3. Extending the Global K-Network –Need to reconfigure the global knowledge network, –Tap into the transnational technical communities –Pivotal role of the US –Coordinating role of the IOs.