PROSPECTS FOR THE GLOBAL ECONOMY SEPTEMBER 20, 2009 PROSPECTS FOR THE GLOBAL ECONOMY BY Jeffrey E. Garten Professor, Yale School of Management

HOW STRONG IS THE RECOVERY? V U W L J

WHAT ARE LONGER TERM DRIVERS OF GROWTH WHAT ARE LONGER TERM DRIVERS OF GROWTH? EMERGING MARKETS HOW SIGNIFICANT IN GLOBAL ECONOMY? Population in 2000 = 6 billion Population in 2050 = 9 billion Incremental 3 billion will be almost entirely outside of rich countries Source: World Bank / UN

WHAT ARE LONGER TERM DRIVERS OF GROWTH WHAT ARE LONGER TERM DRIVERS OF GROWTH? EMERGING MARKETS HOW SIGNIFICANT IN GLOBAL ECONOMY? In 2000 rich countries = 75% global GDP, rest = 25% Today 50% of all incremental growth from developing world In 2050 rich countries = 32% global GDP, rest = 68% Source: World Bank

LONGER TERM DRIVERS OF GROWTH THE $41 TRILLION INFRASTRUCTURE PICTURE