GOES-R Proving Ground Activities at SPoRT

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Presentation transcript:

GOES-R Proving Ground Activities at SPoRT Dr. Gary Jedlovec SPoRT Principal Investigator NASA / MSFC Huntsville, Alabama A presentation at the 6th GOES Users Conference, November 3-5, 2009, Madison, Wisconsin SPoRT – Short-term Prediction Research and Transition

Infusing NASA Technology Into Weather Forecasting The SPoRT Center Infusing NASA Technology Into Weather Forecasting Mission of the SPoRT Center: Apply NASA measurement systems and unique Earth science research to improve the accuracy of short-term (0-24 hr) weather prediction at the regional and local scale conduct focused research evaluate in “testbed” mode transition priority products to WFOs / end user decision support systems / tools Keys to success link data / products to forecast problems Integrate capabilities into AWIPS / other DSS Provide training / forecaster interaction & feedback External Partners NWS (SR, HQs), NESDIS (STAR, NDE), NCEP, JCSDA, JPL, GSFC/GMAO, Universities End users: 15 WFOs (13 inSR), other Govt organizations, and numerous private sector weather partners http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/sport http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/sportblog transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to operations

Research Products Transitioned to Operations INSTRUMENT / PRODUCT RESOLUTION END USER DSS FORMAT MODIS Ch. imagery (vis, 3.9, 6.7, 11 µm) 4 km, 1 km, 500 m (state), 250 m (WFO scale) Selected WFOs AWIPS, AWIPSII netCDF, McIDAS Multispectral composite images - natural and false color 4 km (CONUS), 1km (regional), 500m (state) Derived image products clouds (mask, CTP, phase) 4 km (CONUS) fog / low cloud (11 – 3.9 µm ) 4 km (CONUS), 1 km (regional) LST, SST, LI, TPW Temporal composite images SST, chlorophyll 4 km, 2 km, 1 km HWT, WFOs AWIPS, II, others netCDF, GRiB Non-image data fire and burn areas CONUS WFOs AWIPS II shape file AMSR-E Rain rate, convective fraction, cloud water 5 km (CONUS); 21 km SSTs 38 km (CONUS) Total lightning data NALMA/DCLMA total lightning source densities 2 km / 2 minutes 1 km/ 1 minute

Research Products Transitioned to Operations INSTRUMENT / PRODUCT RESOLUTION END USER DSS FORMAT Combined Instrument products MODIS/AMSR-E SST composite 1 km (NA coastal regions) Coastal WFOs AWIPS, AWIPSII netCDF, McIDAS POES/GOES SSTs 9 km (NH) TWC / WFOs Blended TPW (from CIRA) 16 km (NH) Selected WFOs MIMIC TPW (from U. Wisconsin) 10 (NH) The Weather Channel --- GeoTIFF GOES Channel imagery (vis, IR, WV) 1 km, 4 km Aviation products (fog depth, icing, cloud base -NESDIS) 4 km (CONUS) GOES-R GLM proxy extent density 10 km / 2 minutes SPoRT AWIPSII GRiB ABI proxy imagery (vis, IR, WV) 500 m, 1 km McIDAS Miscellaneous WRF LIS daily forecasts w/ MODIS SSTs (NSSL/HWT) Surface analysis (T, Td, RH, wind, SSTs) – SPoRT ADAS 2 km

SPoRT GOES-R Proving Ground Activities Collaborate with Algorithm Working Groups (AWGs) and Proving Ground (PG) teams to prepare forecasters for unique data and products coming from GOES-R sensors by: transitioning proxy and simulated products to the operational environment linking products to forecast problems develop appropriate product training for end user education conduct assessments of utility of products on improved forecast capabilities SPoRT emphasis on: high resolution proxy ABI products and multichannel combinations of image data – situational awareness pseudo GLM products – lightning warning and severe weather WRF-based lightning forecasts – lightning threat forecasts Examples presented in following charts transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to operations

Proxy ABI Imagery From MODIS Use MODIS channels to emulate spatial resolution of ABI and replace GOES imagery with higher resolution MODIS when available GOES (only) MODIS GOES GOES/MODIS Hybrid Product transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to operations 11/19/2018

Proxy ABI Imagery From Hybrid GOES / MODIS Loops of hybrid product to simulate ABI provides forecasters temporal continuity and advanced spatial resolution. GOES IR 4km – 1515-2115Z, Oct 12 Hybrid IR 1km – 1515Z-2115Z, Oct 12 transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to operations 11/19/2018

Proxy ABI Imagery From Hybrid GOES / MODIS 1445Z – 2045 Hybrid with bowtie correction Near real-time product being produced half- hourly common channels and products GOES with MODIS natural and false color ABI resolution Develop similar capabilities for PG case study data sets – product training and evaluation Demonstrate these capabilities in AWIPS II transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to operations 11/19/2018

SPoRT Pseudo GLM Product Provide forecaster exposure to GLM data, differences from LMA, applicability to severe weather forecasting – benefits transition of full AWG proxy when available Pseudo GLM Flash Extent LMA Source Densities Flash Extent Density derived from LMA data at GLM resolution different from AWG proxy - no optical data forecaster demonstration and education applicable to other total lightning networks focus on AWIPS II development with user feedback transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to operations

SPoRT Pseudo GLM Product in AWIPS II Pseudo GLM Flash Extent AWIPS II AWIPS II will allow for a more versatile ingest and display of total lightning data point data and imagery (as in AWIPS) Better control of display / values allow for the development of 3D displays greater interaction with other data sets Radar reflectivity combined with pseudo GLM flash extent product in the AWIPS II environment transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to operations

WRF-based Lightning Forecasts Improve guidance on lightning threat (1-24h) using high resolution WRF runs that adequately represent storm microphysics use two proxy fields from explicitly simulated convection: - graupel flux near -15 C (captures LTG time variability) - vertically integrated ice (captures LTG threat area) simulate flash rate density and calibrated to match LMA observations each threat calibrated to yield accurate quantitative peak flash rate densities both threat fields are highly correlated in space – can combine the two ABI imagery and GLM data will provide unique observations for nowcasting and lightning warning. WRF-based lightning forecasts provide guidance on precursor favorable regions for lightning activity. transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to operations

Example threat product from McCaul et al. (2009) Blended Threat 3; dBZ: 2002033004Z WRF simulated reflectivity and lightning threat Radar reflectivity and lightning flash rate from LMA Need to know how algorithm performs on other meshes, with other microphysics choices Using CAPS 2008 10-member ensembles (4-km) to look at these sensitivities transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to operations

Summary SPoRT is working collaboratively with AWGs and PG teams to prepare forecasters for unique data and products coming from GOES-R sensors ABI proxy imagery and products and pseudo GLM data will be disseminated to selected WFOs (early 2010) and to the PG testbed as part of the Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) and 2010 NSSL Spring Program focus on displays in AWIPS II where products can be better displayed preliminary product list focuses on current forecast problems Forecast Problem Proxy Data Product(s) Diagnosing changing weather ABI High resolution imagery and derived products Diagnosing low clouds and fog Enhanced channel difference imagery Local temperature forecasts Land surface temperature Visibility reductions due to smoke and fire weather support Color composites, active fires and burn areas Lead time for severe weather GLM Total lightning products, WRF lightning threat Sea breeze impact Local model forecasts initialized with surface parameters and SSTs transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to operations