Population Growth of Texas Cities and Its Impact Joint House Committee Hearing on Land & Resource Management and Urban Affairs October 15, 2014 Austin, Texas Lloyd Potter is the Texas State Demographer and the Director of the Texas State Data Center based at the University of Texas at San Antonio.

Overview Texas is experiencing rapid population growth. This growth is not geographically evenly distributed. This growth is not evenly distributed across race/ethnic groups. Texas has a significant aging population. Amidst rapid growth, parts of Texas are experiencing natural decline. There is great geographic variation in demands for services and on infrastructure. The future Texas labor force will be largely Hispanic. Hispanics tend to have lower levels of educational attainment than other groups and are less represented in higher skilled occupations. A well-educated labor force can bolster a diverse economy, making it more resilient to economic downturns.

Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2013 Year* Population Numeric Change Annual Percent 1950 7,711,194 -- 1960 9,579,677 1,868,483 2.4 1970 11,196,730 1,617,053 1.7 1980 14,229,191 3,032,461 2.7 1990 16,986,510 2,757,319 2.0 2000 20,851,820 3,865,310 2.3 2010 25,145,561 4,293,741 2.1 2012 26,060,796 915,235 1.8 2013 26,448,193 387,397 1.4 * All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year. Values for 2012 and 2013 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau. Since 1950, Texas has grown substantially with some variation over the years in the speed of growth, but in general population growth in Texas has been geometric in nature. We have no indication that the population growth in Texas will slow in coming years. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census Counts and Population Estimates

Components of Population Change by Percent in Texas, 1950-2010 Prior to the 1970s decade, most of Texas’ population growth was driven by natural increase (births-deaths). During the 1970s net in-migration became a significant element of Texas’ population growth and now accounts for about half of our population growth. Of the net in-migration, about half can be attributed to net in domestic migration and about half to international migration. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates

One third of U.S. cities in the top 20 for numeric growth are in Texas, 2012 to 2013 U.S. Rank Geography Population Estimate 2012 2013 4 Houston, Texas 2,160,712 2,195,914 7 San Antonio, Texas 1,383,641 1,409,019 9 Dallas, Texas 1,241,700 1,257,676 11 Austin, Texas 864,407 885,400 17 Fort Worth, Texas 778,084 792,727 19 El Paso, Texas 674,124 674,433

One-third of the top 40 fastest growing cities in the United States are in Texas, 2012 to 2013 U.S. Rank Geography Population Estimate Change, 2012 to 2013   2012 2013 Number Percent 1 San Marcos, TX 50,092 54,076 3,984 8.0 2 Frisco, TX 128,463 136,791 8,328 6.5 4 Cedar Park, TX 57,965 61,238 3,273 5.6 7 Georgetown, TX 52,533 54,898 2,365 4.5 11 Odessa, TX 106,500 110,720 4,220 4.0 13 McKinney, TX 143,032 148,559 5,527 3.9 15 Pearland, TX 96,374 100,065 3,691 3.8 18 New Braunfels, TX 61,006 63,279 2,273 3.7 20 Midland, TX 119,665 123,933 4,268 3.6 21 Pflugerville, TX 51,936 53,752 1,816 3.5 31 League City, TX 88,286 90,983 2,697 3.1 32 North Richland Hills, TX 65,327 67,317 1,990 3.0 34 Round Rock, TX 106,710 109,821 3,111 2.9 One-third of the fastest growing cities in the United States from 2012 to 2013 were in Texas. Two of these cities experienced growth related to the oil boom in West Texas. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 Population Estimates – Places of 50,000+ Population

Total Estimated Population by County, Texas, 2013 The counties of Harris, Bexar, Dallas, Tarrant, and Travis are the most populated in the State. Collin, Denton, Fort Bend, Hidalgo, and El Paso counties also have significant population concentrations. Many counties west of Interstate 35 are more sparsely populated. Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2013 Population Estimates

Estimated Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2010 to 2013 99 counties lost population over the three year period Population change over the decade has been greatest in the urban and suburban population triangle counties. Counties in the lower Rio Grande Valley also had significant growth as did El Paso county. Overall, 155 counties gained population while 99 (39%) lost population over the decade. Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2013 Vintage.

Estimated Percent Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2010 to 2013 Percent change is an indicator of the speed of population change void of information about the volume of population change. Percent change in the population over the past few years has been greatest in the urban and suburban population triangle counties. Notably counties in the Eagle Ford Shale area (south east of San Antonio) and the Cline Shale area (Midland and Odessa) area, have been growing quickly. Overall, 155 counties gained population while 99 lost population over the decade. Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2013 Vintage.

Estimated Number of Net Migrants by County, Texas, 2012 to 2013 The estimated number of net migrants was greatest in the points of the Texas population triangle and surrounding counties. Population change in suburban counties with high migration is largely driven by migration. Population change in the urban core counties of the population triangle is more driven by natural increase than by net migration. Net in-migration to urban core counties at the points of the population triangle is dominated by international in-migration. Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2013 Vintage.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Texas Economic Indicators, February 2014

Estimated Percent of Housing Units Occupied, Texas Counties, 2008-2012 Housing occupancy rates were higher in fast growing population triangle counties and in urbanized counties in the western part of the state. Occupancy rates were lower in more rural counties. High occupancy rates suggest demand for housing is greater in those counties and could be expected to be associated with higher housing prices. These counties have potential to create housing markets with limited lower-income or affordable housing options. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year sample, 2008-2012

Percent of housing units built in 2010 or later, Texas Counties, 2012 The percent of housing units built recently is an indicator of how quickly housing is currently being built. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year sample, 2008-2012

Median housing unit value, Texas Counties, 2008-2012 Median housing unit value is an indicator of the affordability of housing in each county. More recent growth counties on the Texas population triangle tend to have higher median housing values while rural and more sparsely developed counties have lower housing values. This also serves and an indicator of counties where affordable housing may be an issue. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year sample, 2008-2012

Mean travel time to work, Texas Counties, 2008-2012 Mean travel time to work is an indicator of the efficiency of the transportation system as well as an indirect indicator of housing availability and affordability. Workers in suburban ring counties (those surrounding urban core counties) tend have longer commute times. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year sample, 2008-2012

Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2050 Using three assumption of migration (zero, 2000-2010, and half of 2000-2010) the population of Texas is expected to continue to grow. Under the more aggressive scenario, the population increase will increase each year over the past years increase. Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections

Projected Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010-2050 Population will continue concentrate along the lines and points of the Texas population triangle. There will also be growth along the lower Rio Grande Valley, El Paso, and urbanized areas in the western part of the State. Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario

Projected Percent Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010-2050 The suburban ring counties are projected to grow the fastest in Texas. Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario

Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2010-2050 The projected population of Texas by race/ethnicity suggests that the Hispanic population will be a major driver in the population growth of the state. The non-Hispanic white population will grow very slowly and then start to decline as the Baby-Boom generation ages into high mortality years. The non-Hispanic other group is largely composed of persons of Asian descent and this group is projected to exceed the non-Hispanic black population by 2038. This graph assumes migration patterns observed between 2000 and 2010. Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections , 2000-2010 Migration Scenario

Trends in Educational Attainment of Persons in the Labor Force (25-64 Years of Age) in Texas by Race/Ethnicity – High School Graduates and Above Educational attainment by race/ethnicity in Texas suggests that adults of Hispanic descent are much less likely to have completed high school compared to other race/ethnic groups. Over time, the percent of persons of Hispanic descent who have completed high school has been increasing more rapidly than for other groups but even at this pace of change it will take numerous decades for Hispanics to achieve parity with non-Hispanics in the percent with a high school degree or greater. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Public Use Micro Sample, 2001-2011

Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, 2030 Using Constant Rates, Texas These should be going DOWN These should be going UP The educational attainment of the Texas labor force was projected using two assumptions. 1) The first assumption (represented by the red columns) is that educational attainment by race/ethnicity and sex would remain the same as it was in 2011. Thus the changes we see in educational attainment in this projection are due only to changes in the racial/ethnic composition of the population (driven by increasing Hispanic population and a leveling of growth among the non-Hispanic white population). Under this scenario, we would see increases of the percent of the labor force with lower levels of education and declines in the percent of the labor force with higher levels. 2) Under the second assumption (green columns) the trends observed in improving educational attainment are projected forward and applied to the projected population by race/ethnicity and sex. Thus the generally positive trends we have noted in improving educational attainment are assumed to continue into the future. The result of this projection suggests that we will see declines in the percent of the labor force with lower levels of education and increases in the percent of the labor force with higher levels of education. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS. Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario

Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, and 2030 Using Trended Rates, Texas These should be going DOWN These should be going UP The educational attainment of the Texas labor force was projected using two assumptions. 1) The first assumption (represented by the red columns) is that educational attainment by race/ethnicity and sex would remain the same as it was in 2011. Thus the changes we see in educational attainment in this projection are due only to changes in the racial/ethnic composition of the population (driven by increasing Hispanic population and a leveling of growth among the non-Hispanic white population). Under this scenario, we would see increases of the percent of the labor force with lower levels of education and declines in the percent of the labor force with higher levels. 2) Under the second assumption (green columns) the trends observed in improving educational attainment are projected forward and applied to the projected population by race/ethnicity and sex. Thus the generally positive trends we have noted in improving educational attainment are assumed to continue into the future. The result of this projection suggests that we will see declines in the percent of the labor force with lower levels of education and increases in the percent of the labor force with higher levels of education. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS. Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario

Office of the State Demographer Phone: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530 Email: state.demographer@osd.state.tx.us Web: http://osd.state.tx.us