Financing the Energy Transition Between austerity and the Juncker Plan Panel 3 Financing the Energy Transition Between austerity and the Juncker Plan Ulrich Samm, Member EESC / German Research Organisations Monica Peña Sastre, European Investment Bank Ben Vorhoorst, European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity Kai Schlegelmilch, Green Budget Europe, market-oriented eco-fiscal policy European Energy Dialogue Event, Brussels EESC 7 July 2017

Clean energy for all Europeans 10 opinions on the “clean energy package” The EESC welcomes the "clean energy" package, which aims to accelerate, transform and consolidate the EU economy's clean energy transition, while retaining the important goals of economic growth and job creation Challenges: large investments needed (power systems, buildings, transport) citizens at the heart of energy transition (consumers, prices, energy communities) concerns about implementation in Member States (EEU) reflection of the risks and obstacles needed

GDP Energy Intensity EU-28 Energy Efficiency Target for 2030 Index 100=2010 Energy Intensity kg of oil equivalent per 1 000 EUR GDP increase 1.3 % per year since 2009 decrease 3.5 % per year Eurostat energy savings 1.9 % per year since 2009 Energy Efficiency Target for 2030 EU objectives Extrapolation of trend energy consumption 30 % less 36 % less energy intensity 32 % less 38% less

Greenhouse Gas Emissions EU-28 Greenhouse Gas Emissions including international aviation, indirect CO2 and excluding LULUCF 1990 - 2015 decrease 1.0 % per year decrease 2.5 % per year since 2008 Eurostat GHG Targets (level rel. to 1990) EU objectives Extrapolation of trend 2030 60 % 53 % 2040 40 % 41 % 2050 20 % 32 %

Share of renewable energy in gross final energy consumption EU-28 Share of renewable energy in gross final energy consumption increase of 0.75% per year Share of RES EU objectives Extrapolation of trend 2020 20 % 2030 27 % 28 % EUROSTAT

Can this trend be maintained ? What are the main drivers? Guidance Law making (efficiency standards, labelling, fiscal policies, …) Awareness raising about energy issues Realisation Investments for modernisation (explicit and implicit for energy) Future developments Modernisation based on existing rules. Challenge to MS. How many new directives and regulations do we need? European Energy Dialogue

EU-28 Investments needed until 2030 (annual average values) bn € Investments EUCO30 1115 energy related only, SWD (2016) 405 additional to REF2016 177 to meet new targets Budgets available EU budget 155 annual (2014-20) EU energy funding 17 EFSI, ESIF, CEF, .. GDP EU-28 14693 2015 10% of GDP 1469 estimate for Member States budget Total investments 2400 Scaled-up from numbers from D The money has to come mainly from private sources in MS

Clean Energy for Europe - Perspectives and Challenges EU objectives on energy efficiency and GHG reduction are realistic provided investments and innovation do not fall below the efforts of recent years Efforts for clean energy are driven successfully by a combination of law making and awareness raising (energy dialogue) Investments for general modernisation are besides explicit clean energy projects the main driver for energy efficiency improvements Money will come mainly from private sources while EU instruments provide guidance and motivation Risks Economic growth is key for investments Long pay-off time of investments (energy poverty) Rebound effects (living standards, absolute versus relative figures)