Variant Projections

Welsh Government Variant Projections Often mistaken for confidence interval by users Add confidence interval explanation Main purpose is to provide population growth (or reduction) using different trends High Population Low Population No Migration Ten Year Migration

Why produce variant projection? “The more I learn, the more I realise how much I don’t understand” Albert Einstein It’s impossible to predict every eventuality Even after major changes occur in a country its hard to measure the effect/ramifications of these policies.

The issue of using the census as our base in projections Arguably the most useful source of data in Britain, but for how long… The emergence of administrative data sources

The Annual Population Survey (APS) The Annual Population Survey (APS) is a continuous household survey, covering the UK. The topics covered include employment and unemployment, as well as housing, ethnicity, religion, health and education. The sample size is approximately 320,000 respondents Has the largest coverage of any household survey and allows the generation of statistics for small geographical areas Uses data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) The data sets consist of 12 months of survey data and are broken down on a quarterly basis The first APS data set was published for the period January to December 2004 The APS is not a stand-alone survey; it uses data combined from 2 waves of the main Labour Force Survey (LFS), collected on a local sample boost. These boosts are sponsored by the Department for Pensions (DWP), Department for Business, Innovation and Skills (BIS), the Welsh Government and the Scottish Government.

Creating a more accurate variant projection The membership rates are based on the 2001 and 2011 censuses These rates underpin the Household projections allocation of individuals to certain households

Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015 The Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act is about improving the social, economic, environmental and cultural well-being of Wales. Wales faces a number of challenges now and in the future, such as climate change, poverty, health inequalities and jobs and growth. To give current and future generations a good quality of life we need to think about the long term impact of the decisions we make. This law will make sure that our public sector does this. Thus going forward more accurate projections will be required as well as the methodology we use.

The Future Research and production into the viability of using APS data in projections Aim to communicate more effectively the use of different projections What projections actually mean and when to use variant projections Work with other departments to fully develop methodology Contact: Matthew Davies (Matthew.Davies29@wales.gsi.gov.uk) Any questions?