Prince George Timber Supply Area Timber Supply Review (PG TSA TSR V) Presentation to Prince George City Council June 13, 2016 John.G.Pousette@gov.bc.ca

DJA DPG DVA

Current AAC: PG TSA 12.5 million m3/year with a 3.5 million m3/yr partition for non-pine, of which 850,000 m3/yr from Sx leading stands, a 160,000 m3/ yr partition for deciduous leading stands , and a 23,000 m3/yr partition for Cw- leading within the ICH in the PG District Harvest Performance Average annual billed harvest since 2002 has been ~9million cubic metres per year with the average over the past 5 years being ~ 10 million m3/yr. Since 2010 there has been a significant shift from Prince George and Vanderhoof into southern Fort St. James.

Timber Supply Review Program and Allowable Annual Cut Examine relevant land use and forest management practices, public and First Nation’s input, and economic, environmental and social factors. Provides the information needed to set the Allowable Annual Cut (AAC) for the next ten years. Identify information to be improved for future timber supply reviews.

Timber Supply Review Program and Allowable Annual Cut AAC is the maximum volume of wood available for harvest from an area each year. Pursuant to Section 8 of the Forest Act. determining AAC’s is the responsibility of the Chief Forester - Ministry of Forests, Lands and Natural Resource Operations

Role of the Chief Forester Independent statutory decision maker Must not be fettered or allow themselves to be fettered Must not exceed the scope of authority provided in legislation (e.g. can determine an AAC but can not establish land use objectives).

Chief Forester’s “guiding principles” AAC determination is a professional judgement, not a calculation AACs should reflect current practices and are not intended to drive management objectives AACs are determined frequently to ensure they incorporate up to date information and knowledge

TSR5 Schedule 60 Day Reviews Information Collection & Data Package Public and Stakeholder Review Discussion Paper (key analysis results) Public and Stakeholder Review AAC Determination and Rationale April 2014 April 2015 April 2016 Late Fall 2016

Section 8 of the Forest Act The Chief Forester must determine AACs for Timber Supply Areas (TSAs) and Tree Farm Licences (TFLs) every 10 years considering: The rate of timber production taking into account: Composition of the forest and the expected rate of growth Expected time to re-establish a forest after harvest Utilization and decay, waste and breakage Other IRM objectives The short and long term implications from alternative rates of harvest Abnormal insect infestations Social and economic objectives of the Crown

Timber Supply Analysis 101 Timber supply analysis uses a computer simulation model that projects the state of the forest into the future, given a set of assumptions about harvesting, forest management, and stand growth.

Timber Supply Analysis 101

Landbase and Timber Merchantability Definition Forest Definition Slope & Elevation Distance Low volume stands and non-merchantable timber types Terrain Stability Areas reserved for the management of other resource values 11/20/2018

Process Intersect historic cutblock layer Analyze distribution of values Assign threshold and assess impact

Pine Salvage Cutting permits Non salvage Cutting permits

Non-timber values considered Section 8(8)(a)v Riparian habitat Biodiversity Identified wildlife Ungulate winter range Cultural heritage Community watersheds Range lands Old growth management Sensitive soils

Crown Forest (Blue) and Timber Harvesting Land Base (green) Prince George TSA Crown Forest (Blue) and Timber Harvesting Land Base (green)

Mountain Pine Beetle Attacked Pine Stands

Timber Supply Analysis 101 Timber Supply Model 21

Timber Supply Analysis 101 Harvest forecast

Timber Supply 101 – Uncertainty in Forecasting

Prince George TSA Context - 2010

Alternative Harvest Flows

Thank you