Towards a global data set on trade in services by mode of supply A project of WTO funded by EU (Team: Lucian Cernat, Barbara d’Andrea, Antonella Liberatore, Andreas Maurer, Steen Wettstein) Trade Policy, Inclusiveness and the Rise of the Service Economy 25-26 April, 2018 WTO, Geneva, Switzerland © WTO/OMC

WTO-UNCTAD-ITC “Geneva datasets” 2005-2016 2017 A ANNUAL QUARTERLY 2005Q1-2017Q4 MONTHLY 2006m1-2018m2 200+ reporters detailed sectoral breakdown bilateral statistics where available world estimates and regional aggregations 150+ reporters broken down by main service sector world estimates and main regional aggregations compiled by WTO only 30+ reporters total commercial services 2017 A Statistical database Bulk download of detailed annual data Short term statistics World Trade Statistical Review 2017 Trade Profiles 2017 200+ reporters world estimates and regional aggregations for GRS, TP, TV, OCS

WTO-OECD Trade in Services Bilateral Balanced Trade in Services (BaTiS) Experimental dataset for bilateral trade in services by main service sector and for 1995-2012 Trade in Services by mode of supply (TISMoS) Funding by the EU Endorsed by CBFA Dec. 2016 - Dec 2018 Develop and maintain an experimental dataset by mode of supply 59 services sectors All 4 modes covered

Main steps to build OECD-WTO BaTis Data collection Data cleaning & preparation Data estimation Additional national data, back-casting, forecasting, interpolations, derivations, integration of EBOPS2010 data, gravity-model based estimates Trade balancing Symmetry-index weighted average Conversion to CPA Country-specific conversions of EBOPS to CPA using correspondence tables, SUT information and STEC (next steps)

Balanced exports of total commercial services by region, % shares in world total, 2012 Europe North America CIS Middle East Africa C&S America Asia Rest of the world 29.2 5.7 1.7 1.6 1.4 5.6 0.5 6.5 4.2 0.3 0.8 0.7 1.8 4.9 0.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.6 0.9 3.7 12.0 Source: OECD-WTO BaTiS dataset Available on OECD and WTO website…for WTO…see Statistics on trade in commercial services…annual trade in services…bulk download of trade data sets…in csv format !!!

Plan 2017 2018 Q1 Q2 Q3 & Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Fix reported data Previous work Q2 OECD WPTGS First allocation by MoS Q3 & Q4 Include comments Add activity-based FDI/FATS 2017 Q1 2nd allocation Q2 2nd allocation and validation of the results Q3 Explore results Q4 2018 Expert meeting Revise, update methodology

Methodology Using reported data in BOP and FATS sales Impute missing cells with best estimates System of flags to assess reliability of estimates Apply the simplified approach as a 1st step estimates by country, sector, flow, year, mode Refine estimates based on additional information and comments of experts

Expert meeting in October 2017 List of comments and possible improvements What has been done? Changes in the structure of the BOP Changes in the estimation procedure of the BOP FATS regressions Validation of the results What has not been done yet? Estimation and remove the goods in the BOP classification Include country specific distribution

How to estimate mode 3? FATS variable sales (and output) to approximate GATS mode 3 Caveats Complete FATS sales dataset using : Mirror values and zero derivations back/forecasting techniques to fill time series Using PPML regressions (Lakatos &Fukui 2012) Quadratic optimization to ensure consistency of the dataset Validation of the results

ISIC – EBOPS correspondence table WTO code Description EBOPS EBOPS description Share NACE2 TSER TOTAL SERVICES S Services 100 G-S_X_O TPST Transport and Storage SC Transport H FOOD Accommodation and food services SD Travel I INFCOM Information and Communication SI Tel. , computer, and information services J FIN Insurance &pension funding, except … SF Insurance and pension services 60 K Activities aux. to financial intermediation SG Financial services 40 REA Real estate activities L PROF Prof., scientific and technical activities SJ Other business services M EDUC Education P85 SK Personal, cultural, and recreational services HEALTH Health and social work Q ARTS Arts, entertainment and recreation R OSERA Other service activities ADMIN Administrative and support activities 70 N Tel., computer, and information services 30

Supply of Services by Modes Statistical Approximation, 2011 Mode of Supply Estimated share (before) 1- cross border supply 30% 2 - consumption abroad 10% 3 - commercial presence 55% 4 - presence of natural persons <5% Only M1, M2 and M4 67% 22% 11% New estimates (after) 27% 16% 52% 4.8% Only M1, M2 and M4 57% 33% 10% 14 14

Australia, Experimental Data

Colombia, Experimental Data

Next steps Complete 2005 – 2016 data set √ Apply as a first simplified approach √ Gather case studies/pilot projects √ Develop approach to estimate mode 3 (FDI/FATS) √ Define typology for case studies/pilot projects Complete refining the experimental data set Expert meeting (October 2018) Refine data set and explore links with e.g. BaTIS Collaborative effort!!!

Please send email to statistics@wto.org How to disseminate? Make clear that it is modular: reported, imputed, and estimated Become a hub for statistics on MoS and develop data set into an international benchmark Vision: link with BATIS Q&A