Earthquake & Tsunami South Asia, 26 Dec 2004 Just-in-Time Lecture Earthquake & Tsunami South Asia, 26 Dec 2004 Did you see the JIT Tsunami lecture? http://www.pitt.edu/~super1/lecture/lec18071/index.htm This lecture is dedicated by Global Health Disaster Network (GHDN) to the victims of 26 Dec 2004 disaster at south Asia. Please send the messages to aardalan@gmail.com. It would be great to have you involved. Authors: Ali Ardalan, MD, MPH, PH.D. student of Epidemiology Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics School of Public Health & Institute of Public Health Research Tehran University of Medical Sciences Iran Ronald E. LaPorte, Ph.D. Professor of Epidemiology Director, Disease Monitoring and Telecommunications, WHO Collaborating Centre Graduate School of Public Health University of Pittsburgh USA Eugene Shubnikov, MD Senior Research Fellow Institute of Internal Medicine Novosibirsk City, Russia Faina Linkov, M.P.H. Research Assistant Department of Epidemiology University of Pittsburgh Pittsburgh, PA 15261 USA Eric K Noji, MD, MPH Senior Advisor to the Director Office of Emergency Preparedness & Response (NCEH/ATSDR) Centers for Disease Control (CDC) USA By: Ali Ardalan, Ronald E. LaPorte, Eugene Shubnikov, Faina Linkov & Eric K. Noji

What is the Disaster Supercourse? What is a JIT lecture? The Supercourse: http://www.pitt.edu/~super1 http:// www.pitt.edu/~super1/ disasters/disasters.htm A global network of 18,000 academic faculty from 151countries. 2032 cutting edge lectures from leading scientists including 6 noble prize winner. The mission is to provide for free the best possible education materials on health, here it is applied to Tsunami disaster. For more information, please view the following lectures: Introduction to the Supercourse. By Ronald LaPorte http://www.pitt.edu/~super1/lecture/lec0012/index.htm Supercourse overview. By the Supercourse team http://www.pitt.edu/~super1/lecture/lec6961/index.htm Turning the Alley of Information Exchange in Developing Countries to the Super Highway. By: Ali Ardalan http://www.pitt.edu/~super1/lecture/lec16681/index.htm Just-in-time (JIT) lecture: (http://www.pitt.edu/~super1/JIT/jit.htm) A JIT lecture is one of the special applications of the Supercourse blossoms when a major event happens around the world. These Cutting Edge Educational lectures aim to reduce fear and save lives by providing the best possible knowledge. In the field of disasters, continuous “CNN Type” PowerPoint lectures are provided on the science aspect of disasters and the epidemiology of their consequences. When the earthquake in Bam, Iran 26 Dec 2003 occurred, Ali Ardalan from Iran worked with Eric Noji and Ronald LaPorte from the US, and Eugene Shubnikov from Russia. Dr. Ardalan developed a JIT lecture within few days (http://www.pitt.edu/~super1/lecture/lec13181/index.htm) and updated it (http://www.pitt.edu/~super1/lecture/lec15221/index.htm). That was a memorable collaboration, among Russia, Iran and the USA. This was published in the Lancet, and demonstrated how Global Disaster Training could be accomplished. The lecture was used world wide by thousands of educators and seen by a multitude of students. The JIT lecture by Rashid Chotani from Johns Hopkins demonstrated JIT lectures and emerging diseases. He worked with the Supercourse group, and updated the lecture every 2 days (http://www.pitt.edu/~super1/lecture/lec10131/index.htm). This article was also published in the Lancet. We have honed our teachings with other JIT lectures including “Mad cow disease” and “Monkey pox”. The model of JIT lectures develops a first lecture describing the scientific basis of the disaster, which can be modified for any country in the world, and then a second CNN type lecture that is on distributed through e-mail, and the web, updating the lecture on a regular basis and distributed worldwide on the web.

Mission Statement: The Global Health Network Disaster, Network for Tsunamis is designed to translate the best possible scholarly information from leading researchers to educators worldwide.

Lecture objectives: To provide the best possible information about the science of South Asian disaster

Earthquake & Tsunami: South Asian Greatest earthquake in 40 years Magnitude 9.0 on Richter scale 150 km off W coast / N Sumatra Island / Indonesia Generation of disastrous tsunami in 11 countries bordering Indian Ocean South Asia earthquake, 26 December 2004 at 00:58:53 UTC (7:58:53 AM local time at epicenter). This earthquake unleashed a series of tsunamis that crashed into coastal towns, fishing villages and tourist resorts in 11 countries bordering the Indian Ocean. Source: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqinthenews/2004/usslav One year ago, Bam earthquake occurred on 26 December 2003 at 01:56:52 UTC* (5:26:52 AM local time at epicenter), with a magnitude of 6.5 on the Richter scale. We provided two earthquake lectures at: http://www.pitt.edu/~super1/lecture/lec13181/index.htm http://www.pitt.edu/~super1/lecture/lec15221/index.htm Please examine these to understand earthquakes. We should be ready always for huge disasters in our communities! * Universal Coordinated Time

History of Great Earthquakes in the Region: Along the subduction zone from southern Sumatra to the Andaman Islands 2000: M 7.9 1861: M 8.5 1833: M 8.7 1797: M 8.4 Source: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqinthenews/2004/usslav/neic_slav_faq.html USGS

Magnitude 9.0 on Richter scale The 4th largest earthquake in the world since 1900 The largest since 1964 Alaska earthquake ---------- It was felt (VIII) at Banda Aceh, (V) at Medan, Sumatra & (II-IV) in parts of Bangladesh, India, Malaysia, Maldives, Myanmar, Singapore, Sri Lanka & Thailand. To find what the Richter scale & Latin numbers in this slide are, Please see the 3 next slides. Source: http://www.drgeorgepc.com/Tsunami2004Indonesia.html http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqinthenews/2004/usslav/ Useful link: Public Health Consequences of Earthquakes. Part I. http://www.pitt.edu/~super1/lecture/lec13021/index.htm Public Health Consequences of Earthquakes. Part II. http://www.pitt.edu/~super1/lecture/lec13051/index.htm

Earthquake Strength Measures I) Magnitude & II) Intensity Definition: A measure of actual physical energy release at its source as estimated from instrumental observations. Scale: Richter Scale By Charles Richter, 1936 Open-ended scale The oldest & most widely used Source: The Public Health Consequences of Disasters, edited by Eric K Noji. Chapter 8. New York, Oxford University Press 1997. California Department of Commerce, Division of Mines and Geology. How earthquakes are measured. California Geology February 1979:35-7. Useful links: http://www.il-st-acad-sci.org/kingdom/geo1001.html http://www.geo.mtu.edu/UPSeis/intensity.html http://www.geo.mtu.edu/UPSeis/magnitude.html Noji 1997

Earthquake Strength Measures I) Magnitude & II) Intensity Definition: a measure of the felt or perceived effects of an earthquake rather than the strength of the earthquake itself. Scale: Modified Mercalli (MM) scale 12-point scale, ranges from barely perceptible earthquakes at MM I to near total destruction at MM XII Intensity is a measure of how severe the shaking was at a particular location and is determined by classifying the degree of shaking severity as measured by an intensity scale. Modified Mercalli (MM) Scale Categories: I. Felt only by a very few people under especially favorable circumstances II. Felt only by a few people at rest, especially on the upper floors of buildings. Suspended objects may swing. III. Felt quite noticeably indoors. Standing motor vehicles may rock slightly. Vibration like the passing of a truck. IV. Felt indoors by many, outdoors by a few. At night, some awakened. Crockery, glassware, windows, doors rattle. V. Felt by nearly everyone; damage to contents and structures uncommon but possible. VI. Felt by all; many frightened and run outdoors; damage slight. VII. Everybody runs outdoors; damage negligible to buildings seismically well-designed and constructed; slight to moderate to ordinary structures; considerable damage to poorly built or badly designed structures. VIII. Damage slight in well-designed, considerable in ordinary, and great in poorly built structures; chimneys, monuments, walls, etc., fall. IX. Damage considerable to well-designed structures, and great (including partial or complete collapse) in other buildings; buildings shifted off foundations; underground pipelines disrupted. X. Some well-built wooden structures destroyed; most masonry and ordinary structures destroyed; railroad tracks bent; landslides common; water spills over banks of streams, lakes, etc. XI. Few, if any, masonry structures remain standing; bridges are destroyed; broad fissures open in the ground; underground pipelines are completely out of service; earth subsides. XII. Damage is total; waves are seen propagating along surface of the ground; nearly impossible to stand; objects thrown up into the air. Source: The Public Health Consequences of Disasters, edited by Eric K Noji. Chapter 8. New York, Oxford University Press 1997.

Magnitude versus Intensity Magnitude refers to the force of the earthquake as a whole, while intensity refers to the effects of an earthquake at a particular site. An earthquake can have just one magnitude, while intensity is usually strongest close to the epicenter & is weaker the farther a site is from the epicenter. The intensity of an earthquake is more germane to its public health consequences than its magnitude. “The intensity is assigned for a particular location on the basis of the visible consequences left by the earthquake and from subjective reports by people who experience the shaking. Intensity scales also allow comparisons with earthquakes that occurred before the development of seismic monitoring instruments. The destruction that an earthquake causes is a function of its intensity and the resistance of structures to seismic damage. “ Source: The Public Health Consequences of Disasters, edited by Eric K Noji. Chapter 8. New York, Oxford University Press 1997.

Duration of the Earthquake Actual rupture duration: 3- 4 min. Definition: The time it took for earthquake to take place on fault & rupture entire length “The exact length of time that people felt the shaking varied from place to place, depending on their distance to the fault, and other factors, such as what type of bedrock they were on, what the crustal structure was below them and between them and the fault, etc.” Citation source: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqinthenews/2004/usslav/neic_slav_faq.html Northern Sumatra: Above the fault Felt shaking: Several minutes USGS

Unbelievable !! Es 20X10^17 Joules = 475 megatons of TNT Earthquake = 23,000 Hiroshima Bombs Released Energy by South Asian Earthquake Es 20X10^17 Joules = 475 megatons of TNT Source: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqinthenews/2004/usslav/neic_slav_faq.html USGS

Effect of the Earthquake on the Length of Day -2.676 microseconds Too small to be observed ! Change in length of day:    -2.676 microseconds Polar motion excitation X : -0.670 milliarcseconds Polar motion excitation Y:   0.475 milliarcseconds “Since the length of the day can be measured with an accuracy of about 20 microseconds, it is predicted that the change in the length-of-day caused by the earthquake is much too small to be observed. And, since the location of the earthquake was near the equator, the change in polar motion excitation is also rather small, being about 0.82 milliarcsecond in amplitude. Such a small change in polar motion excitation will also be difficult to detect. “ Citation source: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqinthenews/2004/usslav/neic_slav_faq.html USGS

Max. displacement on the rupture surface between plates: 20 m Earthquake 26 Dec 2004 Max. displacement on the rupture surface between plates: 20 m Max. displacement of sea bottom above the quake source: 10 m Source: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqinthenews/2004/usslav/neic_slav_faq.html USGS

Rupture a patch along fault's surface by earthquakes Larger the rupture patch, Larger the magnitude of earthquake Source: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqinthenews/2004/usslav/rupture_area-nw.html as BIG as California !! Patch of fault by Sumatra-Andaman Islands Earthquake

How we can estimate the initial size of the rupture by an earthquake? By studying: Length of the aftershock zone Dimensions of historical earthquakes Generated elastic waves

The Earthquake Rupture’s Length & Width Aftershocks As 29 Dec: 68 aftershock M 7.1: The largest, 3h after the main shock M ≥ 6.0: 13 aftershocks Source: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqinthenews/2004/usslav The Earthquake Rupture’s Length & Width Length: 1200-1300 km Width: >100 km USGS

Seismologists are not able to predict timing and sizes of individual NO tsunamis by the aftershocks in south Asia Number of aftershocks will decrease with time Number of aftershocks can be quite variable. Seismologists are not able to predict timing and sizes of individual aftershocks ! Source: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqinthenews/2004/usslav/neic_slav_faq.html USGS

Location: Beneath the Indian Ocean west Earthquake 26 Dec 2004 Location: Beneath the Indian Ocean west of Sumatra, Indonesia Epicenter: East of the Sunda Trench Overriding plate: Burma Plate Subducting plate: India Plate To understand how an earthquake happens, please DO NOT forget to see the following slide at: http://www.pitt.edu/~super1/lecture/lec18071/022.htm Source: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/natural_hazards_v2.php3?img_id=12640

What is a Megathrust Earthquake? & What is the Thrust-Faulting? 26 Dec 2004: Result of Thrust - Faulting Megathrust earthquakes occur where one tectonic plate subducts beneath another. What is the “Tectonic plates”? The Earth’s solid surface floats on a layer of softer rock as a collection of interlocking, movable puzzle pieces called tectonic plates. “In the region of the earthquake, the India plate moves toward the northeast at a rate of about 6 cm/year relative to the Burma plate. This results in oblique convergence at the Sunda trench. The oblique motion is partitioned into thrust-faulting, which occurs on the plate-interface and which involves slip directed perpendicular to the trench, and strike-slip faulting, which occurs several hundred kilometers to the east of the trench and involves slip directed parallel to the trench.” Citation source: http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_slav_ts.html

Importance of Megathrust Earthquakes World's largest recorded earthquakes have all been megathrust events Often generate large tsunamis that cause damage over a much wider area than is directly affected by ground shaking near the earthquake's rupture Citation source: http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_slav_ts.html NEIC

The megathrust earthquake of Dec 26, 2004, occurred on the interface of India and Burma plates and was caused by the release of stresses that develop as the India plate subducts beneath the overriding Burma plate. Citation source: http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_slav_ts.html NEIC

History of Megathrust Earthquakes 1960 Chile, M 9.5 1964 Prince William Sound, Alaska, M 9.2 1957 Andreanof Islands, Alaska, M 9.1 1952 Kamchatka, M 9.0 Source: http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_slav_ts.html NEIC

What is a Tsunami? soo-NAH-mee or Harbor Wave is a Japanese word: tsu means harbor & nami means wave Did you see “JIT Tsunami” lecture? http://www.pitt.edu/~super1/lecture/lec18071/index.htm A tsunami is a series of ocean waves of extremely long wave length and long period generated in a body of water by an impulsive disturbance that displaces the water. Tsunamis are primarily associated with earthquakes in oceanic and coastal regions. Landslides, volcanic eruptions, nuclear explosions, and even impacts of objects from outer space (such as meteorites, asteroids, and comets) can also generate tsunamis. Citation source: http://www.publicaffairs.noaa.gov/grounders/tsunamis.html

History of Significant Tsunamis in the Region 1797: > 300 fatalities at Padang, M 8.4 EQ 1833: Numerous victims at W Sumatra, M 8.7 EQ 1843: Many fatalities at the coast of Nias Island 1861: 1000s fatalities at W coast of Sumatra, M 8.5 EQ 1881: India’s eastern coast, M 7.9 EQ 883: 36,000 fatalities on islands of Java & Sumatra, Krakatau explosion 1941: M ~7.7 Adaman Islands EQ ( Anecdotal evidence of existing a tsunami) Source: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqinthenews/2004/usslav/neic_slav_faq.html USGS

How the earthquake 26 Dec 2004 generated tsunami? NASA How the earthquake 26 Dec 2004 generated tsunami? Imagine a fist rising up from under the water. Water rolls down off the sides of the fist. When the bottom of the ocean was deformed by this megathrust quake, the upward force acted like that fist, creating massive waves of tsunamis, which spread out in all directions. Source: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/natural_hazards_v2.php3?img_id=12640

Tsunami: 2 Wavefronts Distance: 500 - 850 km Height: 50 cm Source: Radar satellites capture tsunami wave height. NewScientist.com news service. By: Maggie McKee http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn6854

Tsunami Waves: Height & Travel time 10 m: Coastline of Sumatra, near the fault boundary 4 m: Sri Lanka, Thailand, Somalia & Seychelles Travel times: From minutes (Sumatra) to 8 hours (Somalia) “These maps show modeled maximum wave height (top) and travel time (lower) for the Indian Ocean Tsunami of December 26, 2004. Although the epicenter of the earthquake that triggered the tsunami was near the northern tip of Sumatra, the sea floor shifted along an arc stretching about 1200 km to the north. This shifting pushes a mass of water across the Indian Ocean.” Citation source: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/natural_hazards_v2.php3?img_id=12645

Tsunami: Distance & Damage Distance alone: NO guarantee of safety Somalia was hit harder than Bangladesh despite being much farther away. Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Indian_Ocean_earthquake

Andaman Islands One of the first affected places, Dec 26 NASA Andaman Islands One of the first affected places, Dec 26 850 km N of epicenter As 3 Jan: > 6000 death Pictures: A portion of the Andaman Islands on 3 Jan 2005 (left) & 23 Jany 2003 (right). Source: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/natural_hazards_v2.php3?img_id=12651

The Most Affected Area by the Tsunami NW coast of Sumatra, Aceh province, Indonesia 100 km (62 miles) from the epicenter Waves height: 15 m. (50 ft.) 80,000 death (1/2 of total) “The town of Lhoknga, on the west coast of Sumatra near the capital of Aceh, Banda Aceh, was completely destroyed by the tsunami, with the exception of the mosque in the city’s center. Almost all the trees, vegetation, and buildings in the area were washed away. Behind the town, low-lying agricultural areas remained covered with water 4 days after the disaster, and sand on the nearby beaches was completely removed.” Pictures: Lhoknga before (lower) and after (top) the earthquake and Tsunami. Citation source: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/natural_hazards_v2.php3?img_id=12647

Tsunami: Sri Lanka & India Waves travel time: 4h Devastation the island of Sri Lanka off the southeastern tip of India Moving the waves westward toward southeastern India, along a stretch of coastline, Coromandel Coast Destruction of cities, towns, and fishing villages up and down the coast of state of Tamil Nadu Source: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/natural_hazards_v2.php3?img_id=12649 NASA

Beaches of Khao Lak: struck 2-3 h after the earthquake Tsunami: Thailand Beaches of Khao Lak: struck 2-3 h after the earthquake Location: 500 km from the epicenter Waves height: 10 m. (33 ft.) Source: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/natural_hazards_v2.php3?img_id=12648 NASA

Male, the capital island of Maldives was severely hit. Tsunami: Maldives Male, the capital island of Maldives was severely hit. Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Indian_Ocean_earthquake

NO Tsunami Warning Issued on 26 Dec 2004 Disaster !! The tsunamis devastated the shores of Indonesia, Sri Lanka, India, Thailand, and other countries, even reaching the east coast of Africa, 4500 km (2,800 miles) west of the epicenter. UNESCO offers tsunami assistance to countries in South Asia! To learn more about Tsunami Warning System, please view the slides 35 - 43 of “JIT Tsunami lecture”: http://www.pitt.edu/~super1/lecture/lec18071/035.htm NO Tsunami Warning System exists for the Indian Ocean !!

Knowledge is Safety! Girl's sea warning saved a hundred fellow tourists at Phuket beach from tsunami because of a geography lesson about the giant waves!! Tilly urged her family to get off a beach in Thailand after seeing the tide rush out and boats on the horizon begin to bob violently. She recalled a recent school project on earthquakes and told her mother to get off the beach immediately; "Mummy, we must get off the beach now. I think there is going to be a tsunami." So, her parents alerted others and they cleared the Phuket beach just in time. Actually, it was one of the few beaches where no one has been reported killed or seriously injured. So, please find the useful guidelines at: http://disastereducation.org/library/public_2004/Tsunamis.pdf http://www.disastereducation.org/library/public_2004/Disaster_Supplies_Kit.pdf http://www.disastereducation.org/library/public_2004/Family_Disaster_Plan.pdf http://ioc.unesco.org/itsu/contents.php?id=139 Other useful links: http://ioc.unesco.org/itsu/contents.php?id=133 http://ioc.unesco.org/itsu/contents.php?id=134 Source: http://ioc.unesco.org/itsu/contents.php?id=150

The impacts of earthquake & tsunami on South Asia Dead:139.290 Injured:32,327 Missed:14,950 Displaced: 1,754,433 Source: http://www.who.int/hac/crises/international/asia_tsunami/sitrep/07/en/ WHO

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