Local Government Engagement Initiative January 16, 2018 Local Planning Goals Local Government Engagement Initiative January 16, 2018

? County/Watershed Level of Effort Local Planning Goals 1985 – Starting Point 2016 – Progress * Projected Existing Programs + Enhancements** 2025 -- Planning Target * Collated by EPA & DEP Chesapeake Bay Office ** To be defined by workgroups (Starting list on next slide)

How to Create Local Numeric Goals Source: Matt Johnston, University of Maryland Step 1: Convert any Chesapeake Bay “diet” into a local PA stream diet. CBP Model has estimates of nutrient and sediment delivery from the field to local streams through large rivers and to the Bay. Pounds of pollutant delivered to the Bay can be expressed as pounds delivered to local streams using these factors. If 82 M lbs of Nitrogen delivered to the Bay is PA’s Chesapeake Bay “diet”, that number is equivalent to about 114 M lbs of Nitrogen delivered to local streams. 114 M Lbs (Local Streams) 82 M Lbs (Bay)

How to Create Local Numeric Goals Source: Matt Johnston, University of Maryland Step 2: Choose a geography to split up the diet. CBP Model can provide pollution by: Small watershed – Swatara Creek (122) County – Berks (43) Sub-basin – Lower Susquehanna River (6) River basin – Susquehanna River (3) Regardless of geography selected, data can be provided to localities at any level. 114 M Lbs (Local Streams)

How to Create Local Numeric Goals Source: Matt Johnston, University of Maryland How to Create Local Numeric Goals Step 3: Create Expectation of % Effort. Chesapeake Bay Program Model can provide pollution estimates if 0 BMPs existed and if landscape was saturated with BMPs (also known as E3, or everything by everyone everywhere). Expected % Effort lies somewhere between these two scenarios. Equal % Effort: All geographies must implement the same % of POSSIBLE BMPs. Greater Impact to Local Waters = Greater % Effort A numeric ranking system is needed to determine areas that have a greater impact. Example: Lbs of Nitrogen/Acre Delivered to Streams by each area

Loads Already Reduced as of 2016. Reduction Needed from 2016. Controllable Load that does NOT Need to be Reduced. Loads that are Uncontrollable

Another Option: Translating Goals into Regions of Interest and Making it Local Once Again Regions of interest can guide implementation. For example: Focusing on Tier 1 and Tier 2 regions will accomplish over 50% of the necessary reductions and target over 50% of the watershed’s impaired stream miles. Focusing on the top three tiers will accomplish almost 90% of reductions and target nearly 90% of the watershed’s impaired stream miles. Source: Matt Johnston, University of Maryland Black values represent percent of total nitrogen reductions needed by the state

Next Steps for Local Planning Goals? Source: Matt Johnston, University of Maryland Workgroup and local stakeholder engagement will be crucial, and goals may need to be adapted as additional information is built into the framework. Analyses will begin to tease out how much key practices could achieve, and what else might be needed in each locality, helping to determine priorities for funding, geographic targeting, programs and policies.

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website: Contact Information: Veronica Kasi vbkasi@pa.gov 717-772-4053 DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website: http://www.dep.pa.gov/ChesapeakeBay Phase 3 WIP Website: www.dep.pa.gov/chesapeakebay/phase3