RSA Insight Report: Supporting Slides Glasgow City Deal comprising East Dunbartonshire, East Renfrewshire, Glasgow City, Inverclyde, North Lanarkshire, Renfrewshire, South Lanarkshire and West Dunbartonshire Evidence Base Team Glasgow

Contents Explanation of Thermometer Chart 1. The Glasgow City Deal Distribution of GVA (£million constant 2013 prices) and Productivity (per job) by City Deal Region 2015 Distribution of GVA (£million constant 2013 prices) and Productivity (per job) by RSA Local Authority 2015 Sectoral Breakdown of Business Base (2016) Proportions of Businesses by Size Band (2016) Business Births and Deaths per 10 000 (2005-2015) and Business survival index (2011-2015) Resident and Workplace Based Earnings 2016 (Median) Glasgow City Deal's local authorities out commuting proportions by occupational grouping (SOC1) Deprivation Glasgow City Deal by SIMD (2016) Deciles1 1-10 Population projections change by age band 2014 – 2039 Distribution of Unemployment and Inactivity by Region Distribution of Unemployment and Inactivity by Local Authority School Leaver Destinations 2009/10 and 2015/16

2. Demand for Glasgow City Deal Total Employment Projections (jobs) (2000-2027) Total Employment (jobs) Projections 2000-2027 by Status and Gender Glasgow City Deal Occupation Structure 2000 and 2017 (people 000s) Total employment (people 000s) by occupation 2017 and 2027 Proportion of occupations at top middle and bottom of labour market 2027 Expansion demand replacement demand and total requirement (people 000s) Glasgow City Deal 2017-2027 Proportion of total requirement at top middle and bottom of labour market 2017-2027 Total employment (jobs) by industrial sector 2017 and 2027 Expansion demand replacement demand and total requirement (jobs 000s) Glasgow City Deal 2017-2027 Total employment (jobs 000s) by key sector 2017 and 2027 Total Employment by qualification (000s) Glasgow City Deal 2017 and 2027 Total Requirement by qualification (people 000s) Glasgow City Deal 2017-2027

Explanation of thermometer/bullet chart Although most people are familiar with a grouped bar chart:... ... a thermometer (or bullet) chart shows both bars in one, enabling more space to be used, which is more practical when dealing with more cluttered charts, showing 2 digit SIC and SOC for example. The 2017 figures are the ‘thermometer’ and the 2027 figures act as the ‘mercury’. This enables a comparison to be made as to whether there has been a rise or fall compared with the 2017 baseline. And example is given below: 2027 figures less than 2017 2016 figure 2017 2024 figure 2027 figures more than 2017 2027

1. The Glasgow City Deal

Figure 2.1: Distribution of GVA (£million constant 2013 prices) and Productivity (per job) by City Deal Region 2015 High GVA, High Productivity Low GVA, High Productivity Low GVA, Low Productivity High GVA, Low Productivity Source: Oxford Economics forecasts Note: the data is scaled - the units used are standard deviations from the mean.

Figure 2.2: Distribution of GVA (£million constant 2013 prices) and Productivity (per job) by RSA Local Authority, 2015 High GVA, High Productivity Low GVA, High Productivity Low GVA, Low Productivity Source: Oxford Economics forecasts Note: the data is scaled - the units used are standard deviations from the mean. High GVA, Low Productivity

Table 2.1: Sectoral Breakdown of Business Base (2016)   Glasgow East Dunbarton-shire East Renfrew-shire Glasgow City Inver-clyde North Lanark-shire Renfrew-shire South Lanark-shire West Dunbarton-shire Scotland Agriculture, forestry & fishing 2% 0.2% 3% 7% 10% Production 6% 5% 4% 8% 9% Construction 12% 13% 11% 16% 14% Motor trades Wholesale Retail Transport & storage Accommodation & food services Information & communication Financial & insurance 1% Property Professional, scientific & technical 18% 24% 23% 19% 21% 15% Business admin & support Public admin. & defence <1% 0% Education Health Arts, entertainment, recreation, other Total 46,660 2,975 2,605 17,300 1,665 7,170 4,460 8,705 1,780 171,905 Source: UK Business Counts. 2016.

Table 2.2: Proportions of businesses by size band 2016 East Dunbartonshire East Renfrew-shire Glasgow City Inverclyde North Lanark-shire Renfrew-shire South Lanark-shire West Dunbartonshire Glasgow City Deal Scotland 0-9 91% 84% 88% 87% 86% 10-49 8% 13% 9% 10% 11% 12% 50-249 1% 2% 250+ <1% Source: UK Business Counts

Figure 2.3 Business births and deaths per 10 000 population (2005-2015) and Business Survival Index (2011-2015) Source: ONS Business Demography and Mid-Year Population Estimates Note: data for Business Survival Rates only available for 2010-15 in Evidence Base.

Table 2.3: Resident and workplace based earnings 2016 (Median) Area Resident Earnings Workplace Earnings Difference between weekly workplace and resident earnings East Dunbartonshire £512 £329 £182 East Renfrewshire £538 £345 £193 Glasgow City £425 £466 -£41 Inverclyde £402 £362 £40 North Lanarkshire £441 £434 £7 Renfrewshire £448 £409 £39 South Lanarkshire £442 £447 -£5 West Dunbartonshire £420 -£14 Scottish Average £432 £2 Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings. Figures based on weekly pay of all workers.

Table 2.4: Glasgow City Deal local authorities out commuting proportions by occupational grouping (SOC1) SOC 1-3 SOC 4-6 SOC 7-9 East Dunbartonshire 57% 26% 17% East Renfrewshire 25% 18% Glasgow 49% Inverclyde 47% 29% 24% North Lanarkshire 42% 30% 27% Renfrewshire 50% 21% South Lanarkshire 28% 23% West Dunbartonshire 38% 35% Source: Origin Destination statistics by Local Authority, open access (WB07BUK_la), UK Data Service Note: denominator = total trips out of the local authority 1 See SOC Codes for Glasgow City Deal here: https://onsdigital.github.io/dp-classification-tools/standard-occupational-classification/ONS_SOC_hierarchy_view.html

Figure 2.5: Distribution of Unemployment and Inactivity by Region High Unemployment, High Inactivity Low Unemployment, High Inactivity High Unemployment, Low Inactivity Low Unemployment, Low Inactivity Source: Annual Population Survey (resident based) Note: the data is scaled - the units used are standard deviations from the mean.

Figure 2.5: Distribution of Unemployment and Inactivity by Local Authority High Unemployment, High Inactivity Low Unemployment, High Inactivity High Unemployment, Low Inactivity Low Unemployment, Low Inactivity Source: Annual Population Survey (resident based) Note: the data is scaled - the units used are standard deviations from the mean.

Figure 2.6: Deprivation in Glasgow City Deal by SIMD (2016), Deciles2 1-10 Source: Scottish Government, 2016 2 See SIMD interactive map here: http://simd.scot/2016/#/simd2016/BTTTFTT/11/-4.0237/56.1325/

Table 2.5: Population projections, change by age band, 2014 – 2039 0 -15 16-29 30-49 50-64 65-74 75+ Total Glasgow City Deal -2% -12% -6% -8% 32% 77% 3% East Dunbartonshire 4% -10% -3% -17% 14% 95% 6% East Renfrewshire 9% 21% 89% 13% Glasgow City 42% 54% 7% Inverclyde -16% -26% -24% -30% 68% North Lanarkshire -9% -15% 37% 87% -0.4% Renfrewshire 26% 79% 0.3% South Lanarkshire -11% 33% West Dunbartonshire -19% -20% -21% 27% 75% -7% Scotland 1% 85% Source: National Records of Scotland

Table 2.5: School Leavers’ Destinations, 2009/10 and 2015/16 Glasgow City Deal East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire Higher education (%)   2009/10 36% 52% 58% 27% 33% 32% 38% 34% 2015/16 39% 57% 61% 31% Change 3% 6% 4% 1% 2% Further education (%) 23% 17% 14% 25% 30% 20% 24% 21% 13% 22% -2% -3% -1% -6% -4% Employment (%) 19% 28% 8% 7% 9% Unemployed 15% 5% 11% -7% -5% Unemployment Seeking and Unemployment Not Seeking. Source: Scottish Government School Leavers Destination Dataset

2. Demand for Skills in the Glasgow City Deal

Figure 3.1: Total Employment Projections (jobs), 2000-2027 Source: Oxford Economics

Figure 3.2: Total Employment (jobs) projections, 2000-2027 by status and gender   Source: Oxford Economics

Figure 3.3: Glasgow City Deal Occupational Structure, 2000 and 2017 (people, 000s) Source: Oxford Economics

Figure 3.4: Total employment (people 000s) by occupation, 2017 and 2027 Source: Oxford Economics. Note: Figures for 2027 only

Glasgow City Region City Deal Table 3.1: Proportion of occupations at top, middle and bottom of labour market, 2027 Glasgow City Region City Deal East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire Higher Level 43% 46% 47% 48% 35% 34% 38% 41% 42% Middle level jobs 30% 25% 32% 28% 31% 33% Lower level jobs 27% 29% 21% 24% Source: Oxford Economics Forecast data. N.B. These groupings are categorised as follows: Higher level – SOC codes 1 to 3; Middle level – SOC codes 4 to 6; and Lower level – SOC codes 7 to 9.

Table 3.2: Expansion demand, replacement demand and total requirement (people 000s), Glasgow City Deal, 2017-2027 Occupation Expansion Demand Replacement Demand Total Requirement Managers, directors & senior officials 2.6 20.0 22.5 Professional occupations 4.9 90.8 95.8 Associate professional & technical occupations 3.0 34.7 37.7 Administrative & secretarial occupations -1.1 35.2 34.2 Skilled trades occupations 3.1 24.7 27.8 Caring, leisure & other service occupations 4.1 28.9 33.1 Sales & customer service occupations 2.7 45.9 48.6 Process, plant & machine operatives 0.2 15.6 15.8 Elementary occupations 4.8 69.3 74.0 Total 24.2 365.2 389.4 Source: Oxford Economics Forecast data.

Glasgow City Region City Deal Table 3.3: Proportion of total requirement at top, middle and bottom of labour market, 2017-2027 Glasgow City Region City Deal East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire Higher level jobs 40% 42% 38% 45% 30% 31% 34% 36% Middle level jobs 24% 22% 32% 25% 28% 23% Lower level jobs 35% 47% Source: Oxford Economics Forecast data. N.B. These groupings are categorised as follows: Higher level – SOC codes 1 to 3; Middle level – SOC codes 4 to 6; and Lower level – SOC codes 7 to 9.

Figure 3.5: Total employment (jobs) by industrial sector, 2017 and 2027 Source: Oxford Economics. Note: Figures for 2027 only

Table 3.4: Expansion demand replacement demand and total requirement (jobs, 000s), Glasgow City Deal, 2017-2027 Sector Expansion Demand Replacement Demand Total Requirement Agriculture, forestry and fishing -0.02 0.7 Mining and quarrying -0.03 0.0 0.01 Manufacturing -2.6 6.0 3.4 Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning -0.5 1.2 0.8 Water supply, sewerage, waste management -0.3 4.4 4.1 Construction 3.9 9.4 13.4 Wholesale and retail trade 4.0 45.2 49.2 Transport and storage 15.0 15.8 Accommodation and food services 3.5 22.7 26.3 Information and communication 1.3 2.1 Financial and insurance activities -0.4 0.9 0.5 Real estate activities 1.0 0.98 Professional, scientific and technical 6.5 7.0 Admin. and support services 11.7 48.2 59.9 Public admin. and defence -3.0 12.5 9.5 Education 0.1 19.3 19.4 Human health and social work 27.3 31.4 Arts, entertainment and recreation 10.7 12.0 Other service activities 1.7 0.4 Total 33.1 225.3 258.4 Source: Oxford Economics

Figure 3.6: Total employment (jobs 000s), by key sector, 2017 and 2027 Source: Oxford Economics. Note: Figures for 2027 only

Table 3.5 Expansion demand, replacement demand and total requirement (jobs 000s), Glasgow City Deal, 2017-2027 Key Sector Expansion Demand Replacement Demand Total Requirement Chemical sciences -0.4 0.6 0.1 Creative industries 2.7 5.7 8.3 Construction 9.4 22.6 31.9 Energy -1.1 5.2 4.1 Engineering 5.6 Food and drink -1.3 7.7 6.5 Financial and business services 16.9 25.2 Health and social care 4.5 45.7 50.2 ICT/digital 1.6 1.3 2.9 Life sciences 0.7 Tourism 4.6 39.4 43.9 Total 27.9 151.2 179.1 Source: Oxford Economics

Figure 3.7: Employment by qualification (people, 000s), Glasgow City Deal, 2017 and 2027 Source: Oxford Economics. Note: Figures for 2027 only

Table 3.6: Total Requirement by qualification (people, 000s), Glasgow City Deal, 2017-2027 Expansion Demand Replacement Demand Total Requirement SCQF 11 -12 4.3 19.9 24.2 SCQF 7 - 10 17.4 161.7 179.1 SCQF 6 -1.0 54.1 53.1 SCQF 5 3.4 81.4 84.8 SCQF 1-4 -2.7 18.8 16.1 No Qualifications 2.8 29.3 32.1 Total 365.2 389.4 Source: Oxford Economics. Note: Figures for 2027 only