Knife Crime in Nottinghamshire Performance & Intelligence Analysis Insight Mark Dean Head of Intelligence Analysis

Aim for the Presentation   Performance Insight National perspective relating to Serious Violence & Knife Crime, and how Nottinghamshire compares Intelligence Analysis Insight Drill into some of the key concerns, challenges and opportunities facing the police and local partners regarding Knife Crime

a National Perspective National Picture Local Global Picture*   National Picture Local Global Picture* Increase in Knife Crime evident a N/A Increase in Homicide evident Slight Increase in Robbery evident Increase in Gun Crime evident X Younger Victims/Offenders Male on Male Criminality * Where data available

a National Perspective National Picture Local Global Picture*   National Picture Local Global Picture* Increase in Knife Crime evident a N/A Increase in Homicide evident Slight Increase in Robbery evident Increase in Gun Crime evident X Younger Victims/Offenders Male on Male Criminality

a National Perspective National Picture Local Global Picture*   National Picture Local Global Picture* Increase in Knife Crime evident a N/A Increase in Homicide evident Slight Increase in Robbery evident Increase in Gun Crime evident X Younger Victims/Offenders Male on Male Criminality * Where data available

National Serious Violence Strategy v Nottinghamshire National Performance Local Performance Local picture/activity in atypical week: 8 Stop and Searches for weapons… 2 of which have a positive outcome 6 arrests for offences involving knives 3 charges for Violent Knife Crime offences 10 Possession of Bladed Article offences recorded

Violent Knife Crime – National Increases 2014-2017   Nottinghamshire is increasing but less so than several other forces  

Violent Knife Crime – Core Cities Volume Comparison   Similarly, Nottinghamshire’s Violent Knife Crime volume is less than many forces  

Violent Knife Crime – Key Message   Many of the Knife Violence issues identified nationally, are also evident in Nottinghamshire That said, Nottinghamshire is in a better place than many other forces  

Apparent step change from April 2016 Violent Knife Crime – Nottinghamshire Trend   Apparent step change from April 2016 Apparent step change from April 2016: Embedding changes in crime recording standards / new crime rec system / new knife crime team Stable trend over last 2 years Average of about 65 offences per month  

Introduction of Knife Crime Team Knife Possession Offences   Introduction of Knife Crime Team Larger increase than Knife Violence (10.8) – Arguably a positive as securing a knife possession is potentially one less victim in the violence category Increase of 14.1% (60 offences) in 2017/18  

Violent Knife Crime – Ethical Recording Processes   Different methodologies can be used by forces to report violent knife crime (i.e. use of ‘tags’ and/or the use of enhanced search methods. This caveat should be noted when comparing cross-force data sets. Nottinghamshire has an ethical recording process for knife crime When discussing and comparing knife crime, it is important to note differing methods adopted by forces for recording knife crime... Feb16 – new crime recording system Feb 2017 – actions put in place to resolve identified issues Dec 2017 – Technical solutions further improved the use of markers (tags)

Use of Stop & Search   Nottinghamshire reduced its use of Stop & Search by 2.5% in 2017/18, mirroring national reductions. There has been an increase of 47.4% in the targeted Stop & Search for weapons in 2017/18

“ 2017 Force Position: Knife Violence is a Strategic Priority   “ Violence & Weapon Enabled Crime is the primary threat to endeavours to reduce crime and keep people safe. Youth Knife Violence should be considered the core sub-threat within this priority theme.” Nottinghamshire Police Strategic Intelligence Assessment 2017

“ Ending Gang & Youth Violence in Nottingham City February 2012 Background: An On-going Concern   “ There is an emerging threat regarding City based youth violence involving the use of knives”. Ending Gang & Youth Violence in Nottingham City February 2012 Intelligence Analysis Threat & Risk Assessment

487 822 57% City 43% County 58% City 42% County Knife Crime in Nottinghamshire: Headline Numbers 2017/18   487 Knife Possessions in Nottinghamshire 57% City 43% County 822 Violent Knife Crimes in Nottinghamshire 58% City 42% County

29% 50% 6 1% 12% 20% 16% Public Space Street Robbery Homicide Sexually Breakdown of the 822 Violent Knife Offences   29% Public Space Street Robbery Homicide 50% 6 410 crimes 17/18 326 crimes 16/17 240 crimes 17/18 163 crimes 16/17 Knife Related Deaths 17/18 1% 12% Sexually Motivated In Dwelling (but non-domestic related) 20% Other Buildings 16% Domestic

50% Public Space Public Space Violent Knife Crime   50% Public Space Across Nottinghamshire, there were 157 known public space knife attacks last year that resulted in physical injury (i.e. stab wound / laceration) 70% of public space violent knife crime takes place in Nottingham City Knife-point street robbery represents 59% of public space knife crime Of violent knife crime occurs within a public space.

31% 68% Victimology Public Space Involving Young People Public Space Violent Knife Crime Involving Young Persons   Victimology Public Space Involving Young People 31% Involve a victim under 18 years of age. Physical injury more likely in public attacks U18yrs victims: increased by 10% in last year U26yrs victims: increased by 13% in last year Ethnicity of victims who are 25yrs or under: 68% City 75% White 16% Black 8% Asian 1% Middle Eastern County 90% White 9% Black 1% Asian Involve a victim aged 25 years of age or below.

25% 69% Offender Public Space Involving Young People Public Space Violent Knife Crime Involving Young Persons   Offender Public Space Involving Young People 25% Involve an offender under 18 years of age. Evidence of premeditation (in terms of a willingness to carry a knife and use it) Ethnicity of offenders who are 25yrs or under: 69% City 52% Black 48% White County 67% White 33% Black Involve an offender aged 25 years of age or below.

6 Knife Related Homicide Knife Related Homicides in 2017/18.   6 Knife Related Homicides in 2017/18. 4 Domestic: white victims, middle aged 1 Public space: black victim, 17 years 1 Dwelling: white victim, 18 years Comparison Between Knife Homicides & Non-Knife Homicides Since April 2014: 16 Knife related Homicides 5 victims U25 yrs 1 child victim (17 yrs)

Drugs Alcohol Comment on Perceived Drivers for Serious Violence   Drugs Class A drugs are a driver locally Crack cocaine is less prevalent as a driver in Nottinghamshire Alcohol Available data suggests that the consumption of alcohol is a contributing factor in 14% of Violent Knife crimes

Precursor Risk Factors Risk Factors – Study of Violent Knife Crime Child Offenders   Evidence of Potential Precursor Risk Factors ‘A’ 16yrs ‘B’ 17yrs ‘C’ ‘D’ ‘E’ 15yrs Links to ASB & Low Level Crime a Drug Use Low Socioeconomic Status / Deprivation Volatile / Broken Family / Witness to Dom. Abuse Lack of Positive Role Models Requirement for Social Services Involvement School Exclusion / Truancy Learning / Mental / Behavioural Challenges

Precursor Risk Factors Risk Factors – Study of Violent Knife Crime Child Offenders   Evidence of Potential Precursor Risk Factors ‘A’ 16yrs ‘B’ 17yrs ‘C’ ‘D’ ‘E’ 15yrs Links to ASB & Low Level Crime a Drug Use Low Socioeconomic Status / Deprivation Volatile / Broken Family / Witness to Dom. Abuse Lack of Positive Role Models Requirement for Social Services Involvement School Exclusion / Truancy Learning / Mental / Behavioural Challenges

Precursor Risk Factors Risk Factors – Study of Violent Knife Crime Child Offenders   Evidence of Potential Precursor Risk Factors ‘A’ 16yrs ‘B’ 17yrs ‘C’ ‘D’ ‘E’ 15yrs Links to ASB & Low Level Crime a Drug Use Low Socioeconomic Status / Deprivation Volatile / Broken Family / Witness to Dom. Abuse Lack of Positive Role Models Requirement for Social Services Involvement School Exclusion / Truancy Learning / Mental / Behavioural Challenges

Precursor Risk Factors Risk Factors – Study of Violent Knife Crime Child Offenders   Evidence of Potential Precursor Risk Factors ‘A’ 16yrs ‘B’ 17yrs ‘C’ ‘D’ ‘E’ 15yrs Links to ASB & Low Level Crime a Drug Use Low Socioeconomic Status / Deprivation Volatile / Broken Family / Witness to Dom. Abuse Lack of Positive Role Models Requirement for Social Services Involvement School Exclusion / Truancy Learning / Mental / Behavioural Challenges

Precursor Risk Factors Risk Factors – Study of Violent Knife Crime Child Offenders   Evidence of Potential Precursor Risk Factors ‘A’ 16yrs ‘B’ 17yrs ‘C’ ‘D’ ‘E’ 15yrs Links to ASB & Low Level Crime a Drug Use Low Socioeconomic Status / Deprivation Volatile / Broken Family / Witness to Dom. Abuse Lack of Positive Role Models Requirement for Social Services Involvement School Exclusion / Truancy Learning / Mental / Behavioural Challenges

Precursor Risk Factors Risk Factors – Study of Violent Knife Crime Child Offenders   Evidence of Potential Precursor Risk Factors ‘A’ 16yrs ‘B’ 17yrs ‘C’ ‘D’ ‘E’ 15yrs Links to ASB & Low Level Crime a Drug Use Low Socioeconomic Status / Deprivation Volatile / Broken Family / Witness to Dom. Abuse Lack of Positive Role Models Requirement for Social Services Involvement School Exclusion / Truancy Learning / Mental / Behavioural Challenges

Precursor Risk Factors Risk Factors – Study of Violent Knife Crime Child Offenders   Evidence of Potential Precursor Risk Factors ‘A’ 16yrs ‘B’ 17yrs ‘C’ ‘D’ ‘E’ 15yrs Links to ASB & Low Level Crime a Drug Use Low Socioeconomic Status / Deprivation Volatile / Broken Family / Witness to Dom. Abuse Lack of Positive Role Models Requirement for Social Services Involvement School Exclusion / Truancy Learning / Mental / Behavioural Challenges

Precursor Risk Factors Risk Factors – Study of Violent Knife Crime Child Offenders   Evidence of Potential Precursor Risk Factors ‘A’ 16yrs ‘B’ 17yrs ‘C’ ‘D’ ‘E’ 15yrs Links to ASB & Low Level Crime a Drug Use Low Socioeconomic Status / Deprivation Volatile / Broken Family / Witness to Dom. Abuse Lack of Positive Role Models Requirement for Social Services Involvement School Exclusion / Truancy Learning / Mental / Behavioural Challenges

Precursor Risk Factors Risk Factors – Study of Violent Knife Crime Child Offenders   Evidence of Potential Precursor Risk Factors ‘A’ 16yrs ‘B’ 17yrs ‘C’ ‘D’ ‘E’ 15yrs Links to ASB & Low Level Crime a Drug Use Low Socioeconomic Status / Deprivation Volatile / Broken Family / Witness to Dom. Abuse Lack of Positive Role Models Requirement for Social Services Involvement School Exclusion / Truancy Learning / Mental / Behavioural Challenges

Other Factors – Exposure to Violence in Video Games?   Eldon Samuel, 14, confessed to the pre-planned murder of his father and brother. A heavy gamer, Samuel idolised the character of Trevor in Grand Theft Auto. Samuel told police that he found it ‘kinda cool’ that Trevor relieves his anger issues by going around killing people.

Other Factors – Immediacy of Social Media?   Use of social media apps, such as Snapchat, continue to present a platform for young people to communicate immediately. This can facilitate an uncensored, accelerated escalation in disputes.

Exposure to domestic abuse in the home Lack of positive role models Cumulative Impact of Experiences & Exposures on an Individual’s Predilection to Commit Violent Crime?   Exposure to domestic abuse in the home Lack of positive role models Substance misuse Low level criminality Desensitised to violence in society Broken/unstable family Mental health challenges School exclusion / truancy Socioeconomic status / deprivation Requirement for social services involvement Disaffection Violence in video games Use of social media What is the cumulative impact of a combination of these factors on a person’s ability to rationally deal with conflict situations?

Analytical Work: Identifying Violent Knife Crime Hot-Spots   As outlined in the national Serious Violence Strategy, choropleth hot-spot mapping can be a worthwhile aid to preventative policing activity, and can help crime reduction .

Analytical Work: Identifying Violent Knife Crime Hot-Spots  

Analytical Work: Supporting Local Policing Areas   Knife Crime Threat Assessment The new local policing model will be supported with a new quarterly Knife Crime Threat Assessment that will provide forward-facing analysis of knife crime within each neighbourhood and CDP area. Knife Crime Risk Cohort Support to the Knife Crime team with an informed methodology for identifying risky individuals.

401 Injuries Increasing Severity of Injuries   401 9% Head 13% Neck 11% Arm Stabbings or lacerations caused by Knife attacks last year/ Injuries Shift toward torso, neck and head/face being targeted by offenders 33% Torso 2% Buttock 11% Leg

That said, Nottinghamshire is in a better position than Closing Comments   In line with national and (in some cases) international trends, it is evident that Nottinghamshire is facing a challenge from serious violence, knife crime and weapon enabled criminality. That said, Nottinghamshire is in a better position than many other force areas such as the Met, West Midlands, West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, Merseyside and others.

Closing Comments   “ Tackling serious violence is not a law enforcement issue alone. It requires a multiple strand approach involving a range of partners across different sectors.”