The impact of Brexit on the structure and machinery of UK government 8 March 2018 Tim Durrant @timd_IFG 08/03/2018

What we do The Institute for Government is the leading think tank working to make government more effective. We provide rigorous research and analysis, topical commentary and public events to explore the key challenges facing government. We offer a space for discussion and fresh thinking to help senior politicians and civil servants think differently and bring about change. 08/03/2018 THE IMPACT OF BREXIT ON UK GOVERNMENT

Overview Civil service numbers Whitehall structure Negotiation structure Implementing multiple scenarios IFG: Whitehall and Brexit 08/03/2018 THE IMPACT OF BREXIT ON UK GOVERNMENT

Civil service workforce 08/03/2018 THE IMPACT OF BREXIT ON UK GOVERNMENT

Potential trade partners (and WTO) Whitehall structure No10 EU Member States CO Europe Unit Potential trade partners (and WTO) Rest of world Foreign Office DExEU DIT This sets out how the different departments are interacting: In the middle, you have David Davis’s department, Dept for Exiting the EU (DExEU) – they play a coordinating role across govt, manage the negotiating process and ensure that depts. are doing what they need to The domestic depts. continue to own their policy areas (eg Home Office on migration, Treasury on financial services, Defra on agriculture) and DExEU pull it all together to form a coherent negotiating position. Internationally, FCO in charge of overall foreign relations; Liam Fox’s Dept for Intl Trade is starting discussions with potential trade partners; and again DExEU coordinate international engagement with EU countries (as well as the EU Commission, who are leading the negotiations for the EU) And overseeing all of this are No10 and the Cabinet Office Europe Unit, who manage the negotiating process MoJ Home Office Defra BEIS Treasury

Negotiation structure So far Three key withdrawal issues Transitional arrangements Closely managed negotiating structure What next? Framework for the future relationship After Brexit (?)– detail of future relationship Wider negotiating structure? 08/03/2018 THE IMPACT OF BREXIT ON UK GOVERNMENT

Implementing multiple scenarios NO DEAL What is needed? By when? Immigration system for all EU citizens March 2019 Customs system for all EU imports and exports New regulators for current EU functions Agreements with third countries NEGOTIATED OUTCOME What is needed? By when? New immigration system – depending on deal End of transition New customs system – depending on deal New regulators – depending on deal Agreements with third countries March 2019 Firstly, if we look at what the CS has to implement – because of the time pressure, they can’t wait until the outcome of negotiations is known, they have to prepare for multiple scenarios The contingency planning is around a ‘no deal’ scenario – if we leave the EU without any agreement whatsoever. So much of governing and administration is covered by EU processes, that there are a lot of things to put in place if that all falls away in just over a year’s time – these are just some of the more high profile examples, we can talk through in more detail if that’s of interest Then, departments are starting to think about implementing changes that are agreed in the negotiations. Some of these are related to, or will build on, what they need to do for a no deal scenario. But some are not – what is required will very much depend on the deal This is also complicated by the debate on transition – things will need to be implemented for when it ends. For many areas, the end of 2020 is not that much further away than March 2019 – eg fully functioning new immigration system will take years once it is agreed. Agreements with third countries – fall out of EU agts –need to replicate them before we formally leave to ensure continuity of effect – that needs to be done in any scenario

IFG: Whitehall and Brexit - emerging findings Uncertainty What does the future relationship look like? What does no deal really look like? People Difficulty of recruiting Key skills Cross-government working Scale of task Political sensitivities 08/03/2018 THE IMPACT OF BREXIT ON UK GOVERNMENT

For further information: Any questions? For further information: www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk +44 (0) 20 7747 0446 @timd_IFG tim.durrant@instituteforgovernment.org.uk Institute for Government 2 Carlton Gardens, London, SW1Y 5AA United Kingdom