Shippers’ Meeting 7 February 2006

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Presentation transcript:

Shippers’ Meeting 7 February 2006 Radisson SAS Hotel – Schiphol-Rijk 20-11-2018 1 februari 2006

Program Introduction Paul van der Laan Open Season Gert Sloet Combiflex Henk Kuyper Coffee break Customer satisfaction Mirjam Vogelzang & Arjan Leeuwerke Miscellaneous Jan Eggink Closing Paul van der Laan Lunch

Program Introduction Paul van der Laan Open Season Gert Sloet Combiflex Henk Kuyper Coffee break Customer satisfaction Mirjam Vogelzang & Arjan Leeuwerke Miscellaneous Jan Eggink Closing Paul van der Laan Lunch

Topics Looking back Current status Proposed measures Future Participants Capacities Proposed measures Future

Looking back Capacity planning until 2004: Informal indications for capacity needs from long term planning consultation rounds Single requests from shippers not substantial enough to justify investments Approach in 2005: Open season hi-cal grid Use capacity booking commitments instead of informal indications Combine single requests into one project to justify the required investments First time NV Nederlandse Gasunie acts as a pure transmission company Particular attention to: Efficiency Reduction of inconvenience to communities

Open season progress Information Elaboration 37 Confidentiality Agreements Bilateral discussions with parties Elaboration 26 Letters of Intent Very high entry and exit capacities requested Commitment on top of existing firm bookings: 18 Precedent Agreements Focus on entry NE, exit SW: Entry NE 3.8m m3[n;35.17]/h Exit SW 0.9m m3[n;35.17]/h Exit SE 0.3m m3[n;35.17]/h

Capacity commitments Capacity commitments on top of current firm bookings: Situation 2012 Entry Emden 2.5m m3/h Entry Oude Statenzijl 1.3m m3/h Entry and exit BBL 0.3m m3/h Exit Zelzate 0.6m m3/h Exits Bocholtz and ‘s Gravenvoeren 0.2m m3/h

Proposed measures Extensive expansion of hi-cal grid required GTS (TSO) and NV Nederlandse Gasunie (asset owner) discuss expansion of hi-cal grid with: 370 km of new trunk lines, including 2nd Eems crossing 120 km of connection lines 4 new compressor stations: Update of border stations to accommodate increased entry capacities and new exit capacities (Zelzate) Expected required investment > €1bn

Pipeline routes and measures Eems crossing (Emden entry) Compressor station Delfzijl Compressor station Tripscompagnie Compressor station Wijngaarden Compressor station Hernen Upgrade for exit South-East Hollands Diep crossing Schelde crossing

Realization Points for consideration: Work in progress: Complex project to handle Magnitude much bigger than normal yearly investments Work in progress: Technical preparations: Planological inventories (internal, external) Surveying of technical bottlenecks Debottlenecking studies Investment approval/comfort Constructive talks with NMa/DTe Overall planning: Phased realization due to magnitude Capacity available from Q4 2010 – Q4 2012

What causes the leadtime?

Next steps Continuation of on-going activities: Function specifications Environmental impact studies Permits Allocation of capacity to participants Consultation with NNOs Comfort from NMa/DTe on required investments Board and shareholder approval Gasunie

Program Introduction Paul van der Laan Open Season Gert Sloet Combiflex Henk Kuyper Coffee break Customer satisfaction Mirjam Vogelzang & Arjan Leeuwerke Miscellaneous Jan Eggink Closing Paul van der Laan Lunch

The start of combiflex “Methodebesluit flexibiliteitsdiensten” (5 December 2005) Duration of 1 week Volume neutrality required NMa/DTe, not yet approved tariff structure for the flexibility service Tender Combiflex Service 2006 4 opportunities for shippers to contract the Combiflex 2006 service. In November 2005 NMa/DTe has confirmed its decision in “Methodebesluit flexibilitieitsdiensten” that Gasunie Trade & Supply has a dominant position on the flexibility market and hence the conditions ex. Article 10a, sub 1d of the Dutch Gas act have been fulfilled. In other words GTS as system operator has to offer an hourly, daily and week flexibility service to the market. GTS has no flexibility source of their own except for the line pack flexibility which is already offered as standard flexibility to all users. Therefore GTS has tendered flexibility from others. The availability of sufficient quantities Combiflex 2006 is depending on the amounts GTS is able to purchase from its suppliers. In December 2005 shippers where invited to buy Combiflex service for the whole year 2005. 2 weeks ago we completed the sales of Combiflex for the period from April till December 2006. During this year there will be 2 other possibilities to purchase combiflex for the coming periods Quarter 3 and 4 and From October to December. In this presentation I will explain the main principles of the Combiflex service. For detailed questions about combiflex we advise you to contact your account manager. 1 februari 2006

Standard Tolerance regime (example) In 2006 GTS started with the new balancing regime. The thin black graph represents the hourly imbalance. De imbalance is defined as the difference between the entry and the exit. There is no real difference if a shipper is using the entry exit system without the two hours time delay or including the time shift. A shipper has to be in balance on an hourly base. This is called the standard hourly tolerance this is represented by the thin red line. This tolerance is calculated by taking the booked entry and exit capacity divided by two times the hourly tolerance being 26% 10% within the 250,000 and 1,000,000 and 5,6% above 1 million booked capacity (the bracket system) Than in black the cumulative balance signal with 4 times more tolerance than the hourly tolerance. Represented by the red line called the standard Cumulative tolerance. And finally you see the Standard daily margin. As you can see in this example there will be 3 surcharges based on this balance signal. 1 februari 2006

Combiflex services 2006 Services consist of: Combiflex shortage capacity m3(n;35.17)/h Combiflex excess capacity m3(n;35.17)/h Combiflex volume: combiflex shortage capacity times 168 Shortages and excess volumes within the standard and combi tolerance boundaries will be corrected by using the buffer volume Shortage capacity: this capacity will be used to sent volume to your portfolio in case of shortage. Excess capacity: this capacity will be used to take away gas from your portfolio into your buffer in case of excess. There are 24 x 7 = 168 hours in a week, if you have booked 1 m3/hr capacity you get 168 cubic meter and it takes 1 week to empty your buffer volume 1 februari 2006

Balancing regime including combiflex (example) This is the same imbalance signal but this time including additional combiflex tolerance. The thin bleu line is the Combi Hourly tolerance. In this case 6 + 3 You can see that the hourly imbalance signals stays within the tolerance so there are no surcharges left The other bleu line is the Combi cumulative tolerance 4 x 6 and than for every hour of the day there will be 3 added The Combi daily Margin was 8 and 24 x 3 is added to it. You can see that the same signal now stays within all Combi margins. With the result that there will be no surcharge. This is the basic of the combiflex system. However we will show during this presentation that we use the buffer volume to get your balance signal within the standard margins. Aanwijzen 1 februari 2006

Combiflex services 2006 2 types are offered: Combiflex A: 1 unit shortage cap., 1 unit excess cap. Combiflex B: 1 unit shortage cap., 1/3 unit excess cap. Starting value Buffercontent m3n 168 126 Starting Value buffer B Combiflex B 1:1/3 84 Starting Value buffer A The are 2 types of combiflex offered Combiflex A With 1 cubic meter shortage capacity you receive 1 cubic meter excess capacity. For every booked cubic meter per hour of shortage capacity you receive a buffer volume of 168 cubic meter. To give the maximum of flexibilty the starting volume of your combiflex A buffer will be halfway at 84 cubic meter. For Combiflex B With every cubic meter shortage capacity you receive 1/3 cubic meter of excess capacity For combiflex B you receive for every booked cubic meter per hour of shortage capacity a buffer volume of 168 cubic meter To give the maximum of flexibility the starting volume of your combiflex B buffer will be set at 126 cubic meter. 1/3 of excess+ 3/3 of shortage = 4/3 so the starting volume will be set at ¾ times 168 is 126 Combiflex A 1:1 1 februari 2006

Combi Hourly imbalance Surcharge Combi Hourly Tolerance To buffer To buffer Excess Standard Hourly Tolerance entry = exit Send-in/Send-out To the extent the buffer volume is available For every hour of the gas day GTS calculate if volume needs to be send in or out of the buffer. We start with the check of the combi hourly imbalance. In case of excess in your portfolio we check if the excess is below the Standard Hourly Tolerance. In this case nothing happens. In the next example the excess is between the Standard Hourly tolerance and the Combi Hourly tolerance. The amount exceeding the standard hourly tolerance will be send-in the buffer, to the extent the stock has not reached the contracted maximum Combiflex-volume. In the next example you see an excess outside the standard hourly tolerance and outside the Combi hourly tolerance. The volume between the SHT and CHT will be sent into the buffer and you will get a surcharge for the (red) exceeding volume. This same 3 examples could be made in a similar way on the shortage side. Standard Hourly Tolerance Shortage Combi Hourly Tolerance 1 februari 2006

Combi Cumulative imbalance Combi Cumulative Tolerance Excess Standard Cumulative Tolerance Send-in/Send-out To the extent the buffer volume is available entry = exit Here we check the combi cumulative imbalance. This time we take for this example 3 shortages. Example 1 there is a shortage within the Standard cumulative tolerance. Nothing happens. Example 2 The volume exceeding the standard Cumulative tolerance, minus the net result of volume stored or withdrawn in the previous hours, may (in this case) withdrawn out of the buffer, but only to the extent that the buffer is not empty. Example 3 The shortage exceeds the Combi Cumulative Tolerance. The volume between the Combi cumulated Tolerance and the Standard Cumulative tolerance will be retracted from the buffer. The red section will cause a surcharge. Shortage Standard Cumulative Tolerance From buffer From buffer Combi Cumulative Tolerance Surcharge 1 februari 2006

Net result buffer volume Hourly and cumulative imbalance check For each hour, the largest exceeding volume of the calculated hourly and cumulative imbalance will be a send-in (excess) to or a send-out (shortage) from the buffer. Net result of exceeding hourly and cumulative volumes, sent in and out of the buffer during all hours in a gas day, is defined as B1 We check this calculation every hour of the day. 1 februari 2006

To the extent the buffer volume is available Combi Daily Margin Surcharge Combi Daily Margin To buffer=B1 To buffer=B1 Excess To buffer=B2 Standard Daily margin To buffer=B2 entry = exit Send-in/Send-out To the extent the buffer volume is available Example 1 The daily excess volume is within the standard daily margin. Perfect Example 2 The daily excess volume is over the Standard Daily Margin but below the Combi daily margin. The excess will be sent to the buffer KLIK However The volume B1 already sent to the buffer during the day. So only B2 has to be send in addition to the buffer. Example 3 The daily excess volume is over the Combi daily Tolerance. B1 and B2 will be sent to the buffer. Assume B1 is positive (excess volume) not all daily excess has to end into the buffer, but only the remaining volume B2 Standard Daily Margin Shortage Combi Daily Margin 1 februari 2006

End of day buffer stock To enhance the volume-neutrality of the service, the daily imbalance will be used to correct the actual buffer volume regarding the starting position. This part is the most complicated part of the combiflex but also the cherry on the pudding 1 februari 2006

End of day buffer stock B = B1 + B2 - > send-in Combi Daily Margin Standard Daily margin Excess Buffercontent m3n B3 168 84 Starting value B3 Actual value B = B1 + B2 - > send-in B1 B2 A standard procedure for each day during the month is to send hourly, cumulative and daily excess and shortage to the buffer (the explained net results B1 and daily imbalance B2. Imagine that at a certain moment the buffer volume is below its Set Value. In this case we check if there is any spare volume left between the Combi daily Margin and the Standard daily margin. This is defined as B3. The volume B3 will be used to bring the stock value of the buffer in the direction of its Starting Value. 1 : 1 1 februari 2006

Buffer volume reset Daily : optimize volume position towards starting value buffer Monthly : reset buffer to the starting position Settlement : monthly settlement based on monthly average of the day ahead index for TTF At the end of each gas day the volume position is calculated. At the end of each month the volume position of the buffer will be reset to the starting position. Settlement will take place against the monthly average of the day ahead index for TTF of 115% in case of shortage and of 90% in case of excess. 1 februari 2006

Conclusions (Hourly, Cumulative tolerance and Daily Margin) Combiflex provides additional flexibility (Hourly, Cumulative tolerance and Daily Margin) Effective service to stay out of the surcharges For more information see enclosure 4 on our website and contact your account manager. If you compare combiflex services with a natural gas storages, the following advantages apply for the virtual buffer: There is no nomination lead time required There is never maintenance There are no physical delays with respect to starting up of compressors, switching of headers,filtration sections and methanol trains Based on allocation, not on real time values There will be never steering errors Combiflex works always! 1 februari 2006

Coffee break

Program Introduction Paul van der Laan Open Season Gert Sloet Combiflex Henk Kuyper Coffee break Customer satisfaction Mirjam Vogelzang & Arjan Leeuwerke Miscellaneous Jan Eggink Closing Paul van der Laan Lunch

Customer satisfaction Why customer satisfaction? To evaluate our performance, insight into the wishes and requirements of customers is needed. Method Active shippers (40) Focus mainly on customer orientation Questionnaire (30) + interview (14)

Content General image Communication Contacts IT systems Nomination and confirmation process

1 General image: results GTS valued as/for Professional, reliable & precise Cooperative & reasonable Good information policy Quick response to standard matters Strict application of rules and non-discriminatory policy

1 General image: results But also assessed as Clear monopolist Insufficiently proactive Inflexible Slow in non-standard matters Insufficiently transparent Complicated in its services and processes Final grade 7.0 (2003: 6.85)

1 General image

2 Communication: results Strong points Pro-activity, quickness & clearness Website & Mail “news on our site” Shippers’ meetings English Points to improve Information one-sided Phrasing sometimes vague Communication regarding changes TSC 2006 Market evaluation and consultation Transport information

2 Communication: actions Improve market evaluation and consultation Regular contact sales manager In-depth consulting sessions Sessions representative organizations Improve process & status information Transport information Transparency physical network Improvement (interruptible) capacity information Total booking portfolio

3 Contacts: results Strong points Friendliness, cooperation General knowledge, accessibility Swift response operational matters Follow-up phonecalls & emails Points to improve (sales managers) Too many changes Limited availability Limited mandate Awareness of shipper specific consequences

3 Contacts: actions Internal measures Limited mandate Fewer changes of sales managers Better tuning sales managers <-> backups Limited mandate Intrinsic consequence of non-discriminatory rule Awareness of shipper specific consequences Involve shippers in service development Improve evaluation use of services Bilateral evaluation in case of changes

4 IT systems: GEA C&B results Strong points Quick handling of availability checks and bookings Preparation (workshops and manual) Availability and response time of the system Points to improve Limited functionality Manual process points Layout result screens

4 IT systems: GEA C&B actions Release November 2005 Daily contracts Next release planned for mid-2006 Trading of rights Insight into contract positions Usage invoices available in C&B Evaluation of wishes and recommendations Attempt to reduce number of manual points

4 IT systems: Nimbus-IM & Dialog Overall assessment Availability system fairly good Availability & quality of data insufficient Interface satisfactory Functionality moderate Actions Additional research with frequent users Aggregated flows available on LDC points in Nimbus Nimbus data longer available (72 hours)

5 Nomination & confirmation results Strong points Availability & flexibility CCP Process good, quickness has improved Points to improve Explanation of deviating confirmation Information in case of interruptions Role GTS in case of mismatch Request for total overview Vhjmyil7uoktnhglog8p;orf8lirp;/9p klootzqak 1 februari 2006

5 Nomination & confirmation actions Interruptible capacity: next shippers’ meeting Under study Extra information in case of deviating confirmation Total overview on nomination & confirmation position Vhjmyil7uoktnhglog8p;orf8lirp;/9p klootzqak 1 februari 2006

Oneliners Quotes regarding the balancing regime for 2006: “If you can’t convince them, confuse them” “Hard to understand for common mortal men”

Program Introduction Paul van der Laan Open Season Gert Sloet Combiflex Henk Kuyper Coffee break Customer satisfaction Mirjam Vogelzang & Arjan Leeuwerke Miscellaneous Jan Eggink Closing Paul van der Laan Lunch

Miscellaneous Exchange related gas prices (website) Quality conversion Time shift in balancing regime (t=0 / t=2) Consultation Flex services 2007 Amending process Gasvoorwaarden Various topics

Basket of Exchange related gas prices GTS website (1)

Basket of Exchange related gas prices APX website

Basket of Exchange related gas prices GTS website (2)

Basket of Exchange related gas prices GTS website (3)

Quality conversion 2006 End 2005: 2nd round repurchase and resale of QC Sharp and unexpected increase in demand of QC QC shortages in all months of 2006 Distribution pro rata among participating shippers QC situation has the full attention of GTS. GTS is studying factors and developments that influence QC demand. Key issue: determination of expected QC demand - contractual/physical problem - structural/temporary problem - e.g. commissioning of BBL, Groningen field production, expected additional H-gas flows Results expected June 2006 (shippers’ meeting)

Time shift balancing regime t=0 / t=2 In the 2006 balancing regime a standard time shift of two hours is applied (t=2) Shippers may opt for t=0 (no time shift) in combination with 25% less tolerance (10% in 2006) So far 20% of the relevant (TSC) shippers have opted for t=2 During 2006 shippers may shift from t=0 -> t=2 10% weinig incentive. IT nog niet gereed. GTS geïnteresseerd in eventueel andere redenen. 1 februari 2006

Consultation Flex services 2007 Methodebesluit NMa 5-12-2005 requires market consultation regarding flexibility services in Q1 2006 Consultation process and timing: Mid February: Letter to shippers and interested parties with the consultation topics: Hourly, daily, weekly flex H and G gas Contract period: full year, quarter year, rest of year Beginning of March: written reactions from parties Mid March: review GTS, feedback to parties End of March: publication Flex service(s) Opm. Combiflex enclosure 4 (Ruud) 1 februari 2006

Amending Process Gasvoorwaarden (1) NMa/DTe processing NMa/DTe amendments If relevant Drafting Review Establishing A C D G H I Proposal by JNO Proposal to Users Platform Energy Networks JNO send proposal to NMa/DTe Amended proposal to NMa/DTe NMa/DTe establishes(amended)proposal EU Notification Discussion with EnergieNed Publication and public hearing by NMa/DTe Change request by NMa/DTe Appeal/ Objection B E F J

Amending Process Gasvoorwaarden (2) TarievenCode: Established by DTe on 19-08-2005. (niet vertellen: GTS appeal on 17-01-2006) Gasvoorwaarden: Following a change request amended Gasvoorwaarden put forward to DTe on 03-11-2005. Change proposal Balancing regime: Publication by DTe on 04-11-2005. Public hearing on 13-12-2005. Change proposal tariff structure Flex services Put forward to DTe on 19-12-2005. Public hearing on 12-01-2006 1 februari 2006

Various topics HIAF/DIAF 2005: 0.25 Grid topology OSZ: introduction expected March/April TTF: daily volumes will be published on the web (regular updates)

Program Introduction Paul van der Laan Open Season Gert Sloet Combiflex Henk Kuyper Coffee break Customer satisfaction Mirjam Vogelzang & Arjan Leeuwerke Miscellaneous Jan Eggink Closing Paul van der Laan Lunch

Radisson SAS Hotel Schiphol-Rijk Shippers’ Meeting 7 February 2006 Radisson SAS Hotel Schiphol-Rijk Thank you for your attention and enjoy your lunch!