INSEE PROVIDES BOTH STATISTICS AND ANALYSIS Analysing is one of the 6 vital missions dedicated to the Institute Analysis topics cover both the short-term and the long-term As for short-term horizon, analysis are mainly conducted in light of the quarterly short-term forecasts exercice Quantitative stats + qualitative short-term information from Business Surveys Crucial for assessing the economic situation : allows to know the behaviour of economic agents

DAILY ECONOMIC MONITOR On line since March 16th in EN and FR versions Daily updated in quasi real-time graphic book Displays 56 graphs splitted in 11 sheets Each sheet built for analysts purposes Possibility to download graphed series www.insee.fr/en/indicateur/tableau_de_bord/tableau_de_bord.asp

Tools involved are described with details along the scenario in boxes. CONSTRUCTION AND DISSEMINATION OF TOOLS FOR ANALYSING ECONOMIC SITUATION Tools involved are described with details along the scenario in boxes. If the tool is the result of a rather complex calculation or estimation working paper or specific publication Modelling quantitative variable (e.g. Production, Employment...) with balance of opinion collected in surveys. VAR models

BUSINESS CYCLE TURNING POINT INDICATOR 2 EXAMPLES OF INDICATOR AS TOOLS FOR ANALYSING SHORT-TERM DEVELOPMENTS 1/2 BUSINESS CYCLE TURNING POINT INDICATOR Aims at detecting as early as possible the moment where economic situation is turning around. Qualitative variable non directly observed Difference between P(be in favorable phase) and P(be in a defavorable phase) Estimation lies on a multivariate qualitative hidden markov model See for example : www.insee.fr/fr/indicateur/indic_conj/donnees/doc_idconj_11.pdf and http://www.insee.fr/fr/indicateur/indic_conj/donnees/eecm.pdf Ref : Economie et Statistique n°314 – 1998-4

BUSINESS CLIMATE SYNTHETIC INDICATOR 2 EXAMPLES OF INDICATOR AS TOOLS FOR ANALYSING SHORT-TERM DEVELOPMENTS 2/2 BUSINESS CLIMATE SYNTHETIC INDICATOR Summary in a unique variable of the changes in a set of variables (e.g. balance of opinion) whom evolution are highly correlated. The Index is the common component of the variables Based on factoriel analysis splitting common and specific factors Assess the nature of the economic phase : the higher the indicator is the more optimistic are business leaders Ref : Economie et Statistique n°359-360 – 2002