How do we know? Developed by Robert Logan Kellogg Biological Station

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Presentation transcript:

How do we know? Developed by Robert Logan Kellogg Biological Station Hickory Corners, MI December 2016

Predict Earth’s Future: Building your own climate model

What is a model? A simplified representation of something in the real world that we used to better understand the real world.

Scientific Models ? CO2 & photosynthesis Plant growth CO2 Concentration Plant growth ? http://scied.ucar.edu/sites/default/files/images/large_image_for_image_content/carbon_cycle_diagram_ucar_620x600.jpg

Scientific Models Use equations to describe relationships from the real world and make predictions http://www.messagetoeagle.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/mathemacticalcrystalball.jpg https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/75/b4/22/75b422fe66794711dd6c980cb0b6ad92.jpg

Your goal: Develop a climate model to predict what the global temperature will be in 2050. Decide which data to include. Build your model and make a prediction. Test how different policies will change your prediction. Data Global Temperature Catastrophic Volcanic Eruptions Sunspot Number Aerosol Optical Depth CO2 Concentration Cattle in USA http://tinyurl.com/BuildClimateModel-1

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report #5 Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (moderate mitigation) ~10.6 °C Kirtman, B., S.B. Power, J.A. Adedoyin, G.J. Boer, R. Bojariu, I. Camilloni, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, A.M. Fiore, M. Kimoto, G.A. Meehl, M. Prather, A. Sarr, C. Schär, R. Sutton, G.J. van Oldenborgh, G. Vecchi and H.J. Wang, 2013: Near-term Climate Change: Projections and Predictability. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. 9.22 °C