Dr. Bruce Stein National Wildlife Federation Incorporating Climate Considerations into DoD Integrated Natural Resource Management Plans Resource Legacy Project 16-790 Dr. Bruce Stein National Wildlife Federation Dr. Dawn Lawson Navy SPAWAR March 28, 2018

Extreme Weather and Non-Stationary Climate Pose Risks to DoD Resources and Readiness Natural hazards have always been around, but climate change is increasing the risks from extreme weather and natural hazards. Annual number of billion dollar plus natural disasters has more than doubled over long term average based on NOAA data For example, in Northeast US, heavy precipitation events have increased by 71% over the past 50 years, according to most recent National Climate Assessment Sea level along eastern seaboard has increased by about a foot in many places; creates an elevated launch pad for storm surge. Costs of responding to and recovering from these natural disasters has been spiraling out of control – National Flood Insurance Program now more than 23 billion in debt [Note image at right is Hurricane Joaquin “firehose”, which caused historic flooding in South Carolina in Oct. 2015]

Adaptation Guide Project Goals Develop a user-friendly climate adaptation guide for installation natural resource planners and managers Training Develop and deliver associated outreach and training based on the guide

Project Performers Dr. Bruce Stein (PI), Chief Scientist, National Wildlife Federation Dr. Dawn Lawson (Co-PI), Ecologist, Navy Space and Naval Warfare Systems Command Dr. Carolyn Enquist, Deputy Director, USGS Southwest Climate Science Center Patty Glick, Senior Adaptation Specialist, National Wildlife Federation Service Advisors Air Force - Diane Pancoska, Paul Jurena Army - Lorri Schwartz Marine Corps - Lance Bookless, Jaqueline Rice Navy - Tammy Conkle, Christy Wolf National Guard - Michelle Richards

Design Considerations Need to Support Wide Variety of Installations and Managers Cross-Service Air Force, Army, National Guard, Navy, Marine Corps Diversity of geographies and ecosystems Coastal, desert, mountain, arctic, etc. Varying sectors/program elements T&E species, wetlands, BASH, fire management, invasives, forestry, etc. Varying levels of technical expertise Large and small installations

Building on Existing Work Existing DoD Guidance INRMP template/climate guidance Ecosystem management approach SERDP climate/resilience research Climate-Smart Framework Collaboratively developed, interagency planning process Vetted and in wide application Non-prescriptive Builds on existing work Focus on options and best practices for adaptation

High-Level Options for Incorporating Climate into INRMP Include in INRMP as appendix Greater flexibility Can be a good starting point Fully integrate into main body of INRMP Enhances connection with multiple program elements and existing activities May require more external coordination

Adaptation as Iterative Risk Management Monitor and Adjust As Needed Assess Climate Risks Develop Adaptation Responses Implement Risk Reduction Measures

INRMP Adaptation Planning Process Getting Started Conduct project scoping Assemble planning team Compile background information Understand Climate Risks Identify key climate concerns; project plausible future conditions Assess vulnerability of target natural resources Assess implications for INRMP goals and installation mission Respond to Climate-Risks Identify possible adaptation responses Evaluate feasibility/effectiveness of possible responses Select priority risk-reduction measures Implement Risk Reduction Measures Incorporate priority actions into INRMP implementation table Execute new activities/projects as needed Modify existing activities/projects as needed Monitor and Adjust Articulate expected results and indicators; Identify adaptive management thresholds Monitor ecological responses, project effectiveness Reinitiate adaptation planning as needed

Structure of Guide Introduction Climate Risks to DoD Natural Resources Climate Adaptation – An Overview Understanding Climate Change Basics Addressing Climate in INRMPs Adaptation Planning – A Step-by-Step Process Appendices Key Resources Checklist Supporting Worksheets

Training and Outreach Associated training to build on multi- year adaptation training program with FWS/National Conservation Training Center Pilot training to take place in August at SMR conference Rollout strategy will combine in- person and remote. May include “train the trainer” opportunities.

Project Status Brief at Pentagon to DoD Conservation Committee (March 2018) Review draft of guide projected for early summer 2018 Pilot training to be held August 2018 at SMR in St. Louis Final version of guide projected for late 2018 Outreach and additional training into 2019

Discussion: Adaptation Training Needs and Opportunities Possible training venues? Regional and/or topical training needs? “Train the trainer” and other opportunities for scaling up?