Francisco Munoz Dennis P. Lettenmaier

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Presentation transcript:

Northwestern Mexico Hydrological drought predictability: influences and effects Francisco Munoz Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington for presentation at Regional Climate Forum for Northwest Mexico and the Southwest United States 10-11 April 2008 CICESE, Ensenada México

Outline Motivation Current Drought Assessment Hydrological Forecast System Coverage VIC Preliminary Drought Assessment Further work

Motivation Effects of drought are among the most costly from different perspectives Use of hydrological and agricultural drought forecasts UW West-wide hydrologic forecast system – moving toward integral drought analysis over Mexico and the U.S.

Drought Events in the 20th Century 28 19 15 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 2 1 from Arteaga Ramirez and Vazquez Peña, 1998

Drought Assessment Available Indices Proposed Method Palmer Drought Index Standardized Precipitation Index Surface Water Supply Index Proposed Method Percentiles relative to the climatology (1960-1999) Use of Hydrological Models to create continuous spatiotemporal patterns of drought-linked variables Allow monitoring and forecast North American Drought Monitor, 2008 http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/monitoring/drought/nadm/

VIC Model

UW-Westwide hydrologic forecast system (UW-HFS) Soil Moisture and Streamflow percentile (20%)

Ensemble Streamflow Prediction ICs Spin-up Forecast observed recent met data to generate “perfect” ICs ensemble of historical met data to generate ensemble forecast hydrologic state Applications: climate forecast Ensemble Streamflow Prediction

Streamflow Forecast More than 200 stations over the US Currently 23 Points over Mexico 13 points over the NAM region (9 in the Yaqui basin)

Yaqui River Basin Angostura Oviachi Bavispe Paso Nacori Moctezuma Aros - /Papigochi River Oviachi Yaqui River Gulf of California Yaqui Valley

Runoff Forecast June 2007 July 2007

Streamflow and Streamflow Anomaly Angostura

Streamflow Anomalies Boquilla, BC Perlas, Chis Paso Nacori

Probability of Drought Occurrence

Summary Spatial Distribution of Runoff percentiles emulates the NADM drought Index (PDI) UW-HFS presents higher resolution Wider distribution over southern BC and northern BCS Higher values over southeastern Mexico Important effect of initial conditions on the monsoon streamflow prediction

Further work Drought Monitoring and Forecast System Implementation of the SIMOP (Reservoir Model) in the Yaqui basin Integration of UW surface water monitor (national) with UW-HFS Multi-model development over Mexico NOAH, SAC, possibly others

Additional Features SIMulador Operacional (SIMOP) Reservoir Operational Model for the Yaqui basin

Current Mexican Basins