Preventonomics: A Better Start – how will it pay? ‘A Better Start’ induction event Newcastle, 17 July 2014

The ABS Economic Study: Oct 2013 – Apr 2015 Preventonomics AVOIDING (MOST) TECHNICAL DETAILS Based in economic theory and more years experience of economic evaluation than we’d like to admit. We can tell you about them … but later. What we are doing Local tools: costing interventions cost savings’ models How you can help develop a model that’s right for your area Timeline Concluding comments and contact details The ABS Economic Study: Oct 2013 – Apr 2015

Preventonomics A What we are doing

Preventonomics aims to… To provide tools so that local areas can use data about their *interventions* to make an early assessment of the additional costs the likely outcomes and the likely down-stream cost savings from their interventions. Time line October 2013 – April 2015

Building models from evidence … 2. How much difference does intervening make to children’s health and welfare? Quantify the extent to which intervening alters children’s trajectories? 1. What happens to children over five years (and more) with these problems? At what cost? 3. How does this change the way children and families use services and supports? What are the down-stream cost savings that flow from the improved outcomes

Preventonomics B From evidence to local tools

Developing two types of local tools Cost estimation tools and guidance To help estimate the costs of your local ‘interventions’ (additional costs) ‘Front-faced’ decision analytic models In which local area personnel can record the improvements in health & welfare. These prompt the down-stream cost savings to be estimate 20/11/2018

I. What a cost tool might look like

II. A cost savings model What we need to know about the interventions: Here’s one we prepared earlier; Bonin et al, 2012 What we need to know about the interventions: What happens without intervention? Take-up / drop-out How effective is the intervention? How long do treatment effects last? How much does it cost to intervene? And of course, the costs of the problem we are trying to prevent

% of children with persistent CD A small change in the % children with persistent CD, but a positive return on investment after 5-8 years.

Input your local data and the tools can… Help understand staffing etc. requirements Help find out what is worth doing for whom... …and who pays and who reaps the benefits. Help obtain funding for the things you set out to do… … at the level you need… …by providing an evidence-base for your business case

Preventonomics C How you can help develop a model right for your area

How you can help Research liaison Preventonomics sub-group (4-5 people) Single point of contact Keep area personnel up to date Liaise with other agencies Co-ordinate sub-group Keep us up-to-date with activities in the area Link with Warwick Consortium evaluation – particularly the economic evaluation Interest in modelling & evaluation Work with research liaison Contribute to model / guidance development Attend workshops, learn to operate model Commitment to long-term capacity building Linking with local personnel Linking with other area sub-groups

Preventonomics D Our timeline

Preventonomics: timeline Date Activity July 2014 Research contact (RC) identified for each local area July - Sept ‘14 Preliminary meeting with RCs; discuss data requirements Develop engagement plans with each area Identify sub-group members in each area Sept ’14 - Mar ‘15 Develop draft models and guidance Visits local area visits as required; helpline available Sept & Nov 2014 Sub-group meetings: Developing models & toolkits; linking areas Jan 2015 Sub-group meeting: Working with toolkit Mar 2015 Demonstrate draft cost savings model Sub-group meeting: Working with cost savings’ model & guidance Apr 2015 Area workshops: Using the area model May 2015 Drop-in clinic; troubleshooting session

Preventonomics E Concluding comments and contact details

Concluding comments Investment in evaluation capacity Some knowns, some unknowns We’re working with ABS Partners to help make sure everything fits together Does it work for you? Research-Oriented Contact in each area help ensure we reach the appropriate local personnel Linking with Warwick evaluation to reduce burden of evaluation and data collection We’re here F2F meetings, email, telephone, Skype Seminars, workshops Investment in evaluation capacity

Get in touch and keeping in touch pssru.preventonomics@lse.ac.uk @preventonomics bit.ly/preventonomics