Tipping Point Or More Of The Same?

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

1 1 Presented by: Sara L. Johnson Managing Director Global Macroeconomics Group DRI-WEFA August 7, 2001 The U.S. Economic Outlook: Turbulent Times.

Advertisements

Economic Conditions in New Hampshire and New England Yolanda Kodrzycki Vice President and Director, NEPPC Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Joint Economic.

Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc. The U.S. Economic Outlook: How Much Fallout from The Housing Meltdown? Nariman Behravesh Chief Economist NAHB April.

Battling Headwinds: Arizona’s Economy Struggles Upward Presented to the Tucson Association of REALTORS® February 13, 2015 George Hammond, Ph.D. Director.

John Rose Chief Economist Financial Services The Economic Impact of the Late Night Economy June 28, 2012 The Economic Impact of the Late Night Economy.

Economic Outlook William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Multi-Chamber Economic Outlook Luncheon Downers.

Virginia Association of Chamber of Commerce Executives June 27, 2013 The Impact of Sequestration on the Virginia Economy Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D. Dwight.

U.S. Economic Outlook A Relatively Fast Manufacturing Growth Pace Amid Modest Gains In The Overall Economy Presented by: Daniel J. Meckstroth, Ph.D. Vice.

The School Finance Outlook for and Beyond Legislative Revenue Office April 2010.

Economic Outlook William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Saint Xavier University Graham School of Management.

Perspectives on U.S. and Global Economy Houston Region Economic Outlook Houston Economics Club and Greater Houston Partnership Omni Houston Hotel December.

The Comerica Economic Outlook The Mid-Cycle U.S. Economy in a Multi-Speed World Robert A. Dye Chief Economist, Comerica Bank January 2015.

Houston, Like the Nation, is Returning to Growth Tim Hopper Senior Economist Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas June 15, 2004.

British Columbia Economic Outlook Carol Frketich, BC Regional Economist.

Financial Plan Overview Andrew M. Cuomo, Governor Robert L. Megna, Director of the Budget July 2011 New York State Division of the Budget.

The Stagnation Two-Step: Pessimism and Spending Richard Curtin Research Professor and Director Surveys of Consumers University of Michigan.

BOE Advisory Council July 25, 2013 The Economic Outlook Joe Fitz Chief of Research and Statistics Board of Equalization.

Economic Outlook William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Spring Manufacturers Institute Orlando, FL April.

U.S./Arizona/Phoenix Economic Outlook

Economic Outlook 2000 Hawaii Economic Association Annual Conference April 28, 2000.

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 2 nd Annual LEARN Conference Atlanta, Georgia March 29, 2010 Samuel Addy, Ph.D. Center for Business and Economic Research.

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Cochise College CENTER FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH Economic Outlook Sierra Vista, AZ.

New Mexico's Economy: Recent Developments and Outlook New Mexico Data Users Conference Albuquerque NM November 13, 2014 Jeffrey Mitchell Director, BBER.

WASHINGTON STATEECONOMIC AND REVENUE FORECAST COUNCIL Economic & Revenue Outlook Presented to Washington State National Institute of Government Procurement.

The Great Economic Unraveling of : Impacts on the U.S. and Texas Bernard L. Weinstein, Ph.D. Cox School of Business Southern Methodist University.

Fairfax Committee of 100 February 24, 2015 The Northern Virginia and Washington Area Regional Economic Outlook David E. Versel, AICP Senior Research Associate.

IHS Consulting U.S. Economic Outlook FHWA Talking Freight Seminar Steve Owens Consultant, Commodity Flow Analysis & Forecasting February 16, 2011.

Today’s Economic Situation: The Great Recession, The Recovery, Where We (May Be) Going? Principles of Macroeconomics 7/20/12.

Interest Rates and the Business Cycle

International Economic Considerations Michael J. Stead, EVP Director of Capital Markets.

DBIA-MAR Luncheon February 19, 2013 The U.S. and Washington Area Economies’ Current Economic Performance and Near-Term Outlook Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D.

West Alabama Real Estate Summit Tuscaloosa, AlabamaAugust 24, 2012 Ahmad Ijaz Center for Business and Economic Research Culverhouse College of Commerce.

BOOM OR BUST: WHICH SIDE OF THE ECONOMIC RECOVERY DO YOU SIT ON? Janet Harrah, Senior Director Center for Economic Analysis and Development Northern Kentucky.

The Outlook for the U.S. Economy and Home Improvement Spending James Gillula Managing Director, Consulting Services IHS Global Insight April 2014.

Economic Assessment Wade Rousse Economic Outreach Specialist Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago IASET Chicago, IL December 12, 2008.

Economic Outlook for 2011 and 2012 William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Electronics Representatives Association.

© 2011 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. From Slow Straggle to Steady Stride: A Hesitant Recovery Assumes New Cadence Robert Johnson, CFA Director.

2015 Labor Day Report: Annual Report on the State of Montana’s Economy Barbara Wagner Chief Economist State Workforce Investment Board Meeting September.

Cross Currents Arizona’s Economy Looks for Smooth Sailing Presented to: Arizona City Managers Association July 23, 2015 George Hammond, Ph.D. Director.

Washington Area Compensation and Benefits Association February 21, 2013 Uncertain Economic Times: Impacts on Local DC, MD and VA Employers and Employees.

Overview and Outlook for Georgia’s Revenue Situation and Economy Fiscal Management Council Office of Planning and Budget Ken Heaghney September 2015.

2015 Labor Day Report: Annual Report on the State of Montana’s Economy Barbara Wagner Chief Economist Labor Arbitration Conference October 8, 2015 Fairmont,

2000 Economic Outlook Hawaii Economic Association Annual Conference April 28, 2000.

Tennessee and U.S. Economic Update and Outlook Matthew N. Murray, Ph.D. October 2015.

1 Copyright  2000 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved The US Economic Outlook: How Long Can the Good Times Roll? TVB New York September.

William F. Fox, Director Center for Business and Economic Research The University of Tennessee, Knoxville November 17, 2015 The 2016 Economy Looks Like.

PowerPoint Presentation by Charlie Cook Copyright © 2004 South-Western. All rights reserved. Chapter 21 The Macroeconomic Environment.

1 Unit 3 Measurement and Fiscal Policy. 2 Table of Contents.

Economic and Commercial Real Estate Outlook By Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist National Association of REALTORS ® May 14, 2015 Washington, D.C.

Measuring the Economy. Vocabulary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) GDP per Capita Base Year Business Cycle Prosperity Recession Depression Recovery Inflation.

Opportunity cost - The value of what is given up when you make a choice is the opportunity cost of your decision Positive Economics - Economic analysis.

An Overview of Economic Conditions in the Nation and Missouri Subhayu Bandyopadhyay Research Officer Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Alberta's Economic Outlook Catherine Rothrock A/Chief Economist November 6, 2015.

Recent Economic Developments and the Outlook

National Economic Conditions

The 2016 Economy: Our “Slow, Steady Ride”

2017 Economic Outlook IREM Los Angeles

BETTER SOFT DATA WITH TRUMP, BUT HARDER DATA is lagging

The Current Performance and Near-Term Outlook for

Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

The Wild West Current Performance and Outlook Presented at:

The School Finance Outlook for and Beyond

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2018: “SETTING A RECORD” Dr. Michael L. Walden

Economic Update & Outlook Arizona State Board of Equalization

Georgia’s Economic Conditions and Outlook

Economic Indicators: GDP, INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT

CBO’s Assessment of the Economic Outlook

Dave Shideler Associate Professor & Extension Economist

GDP and the Economy Vocabulary Coach Lott.

Measuring economies: GDP & fiscal policy

Presentation transcript:

Tipping Point Or More Of The Same? Arizona Picks Up Some Steam Presented to the State Board of Equalization June 21, 2016 George Hammond, Ph.D. Director Economic and Business Research Center

Visit the award-winning Arizona’s Economy azeconomy.eller.arizona.edu

New features now available New features now available! The Arizona’s Economy App Real-time data at your fingertips. . Free at the Apple App Store and Google Play. University of Arizona / Eller College of Management

Follow EBRC on Facebook and Twitter @Eller_EBRC facebook.com/Eller.EBRC University of Arizona / Eller College of Management

Explore data for border economies. Arizona-Mexico Economic Indicators azmex.eller.arizona.edu University of Arizona / Eller College of Management

mapazdashboard.arizona.edu University of Arizona / Eller College of Management

Our Game Plan Arizona’s job growth accelerated recently Faster gains for both Phoenix and Tucson Arizona and Phoenix jobs are above pre-recession levels Federal procurement spending still falling Arizona wage growth remains subdued U.S. dollar is still elevated and gasoline prices are still low U.S. growth accelerates in the near term Arizona economy gains momentum University of Arizona / Eller College of Management

Arizona Job Growth Over The Year University of Arizona / Eller College of Management

Arizona Job Growth Over The Year, 2016Q1 +81,300 jobs +3.1% Avg. Wages per Worker $46,919 in 2014 University of Arizona / Eller College of Management

Job Replacement Rates Through April 2016 Percent Percent of jobs lost during the Great Recession that have been replaced. University of Arizona / Eller College of Management

Federal Procurement Spending Arizona, Calendar Year $Billions University of Arizona / Eller College of Management

Arizona Wages Per Worker Nominal, Over-The-Year Growth Rates University of Arizona / Eller College of Management

Official And Broadly Defined Rates U.S. Unemployment Rate Official And Broadly Defined Rates University of Arizona / Eller College of Management

U.S. Dollar And Crude Oil Prices University of Arizona / Eller College of Management

Arizona Merchandise Exports To Mexico Nominal, Monthly Rate University of Arizona / Eller College of Management

U.S. Real GDP And Job Growth IHS Economics April 2016 University of Arizona / Eller College of Management

U.S. Interest Rates IHS Economics April 2016 University of Arizona / Eller College of Management

U.S. Housing Starts And Households IHS Economics April 2016 University of Arizona / Eller College of Management

U.S. Dollar And Net Exports IHS Economics April 2016 University of Arizona / Eller College of Management

Arizona And U.S. Job Growth University of Arizona / Eller College of Management

Arizona Job Growth By Industry Net Change: 2015-2018 University of Arizona / Eller College of Management

Arizona Population Components University of Arizona / Eller College of Management

Voting With Their Feet Estimating Relative Standards of Living with Cross-Migration Data Domestic Migrants: Census 2000 186,151 WIN! +1 92,452 9,304 8,739 LOSS! -1 University of Arizona / Eller College of Management

Voting With Their Feet Census 1970 Migration Rank 1 - 10 11 - 20 21 - 30 31 - 40 41 - 51 University of Arizona / Eller College of Management

Voting With Their Feet Census 1980 Migration Rank 1 - 10 11 - 20 21 - 30 31 - 40 41 - 51 University of Arizona / Eller College of Management

Voting With Their Feet Census 1990 Migration Rank 1 - 10 11 - 20 21 - 30 31 - 40 41 - 51 University of Arizona / Eller College of Management

Voting With Their Feet Census 2000 Migration Rank 1 - 10 11 - 20 21 - 30 31 - 40 41 - 51 University of Arizona / Eller College of Management

Voting With Their Feet ACS Five-Year 2005-2009 Migration Rank 1 - 10 11 - 20 21 - 30 31 - 40 41 - 51 University of Arizona / Eller College of Management

Voting With Their Feet ACS One Year: 2010-2014 Migration Rank 1 - 10 11 - 20 21 - 30 31 - 40 41 - 51 University of Arizona / Eller College of Management

Arizona Housing Permits Annual Data University of Arizona / Eller College of Management

Arizona’s Income Gap Expands Percentage PCPI Gap With The U.S. University of Arizona / Eller College of Management

The Risks Dismal productivity growth Spike in crude oil prices Which drives a surge in costs/inflation Spike in crude oil prices Which contributes to faster inflation Federal Reserve raises rates aggressively Global growth falters U.S. dollar surge, net exports drop No increase in residential mobility Fiscal policy shock University of Arizona / Eller College of Management

Arizona Outlook Summary University of Arizona / Eller College of Management