Development of Inter-model differences

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Presentation transcript:

Development of Inter-model differences Example - pan-Arctic simulation

Model domain Baseline Run: 1 Oct. 1985 - 30 Sep. 1986 (grid: 51 x 91; 120 km) Baseline Run: 1 Oct. 1985 - 30 Sep. 1986 Wetlands Runs: 1 April 1986 - 30 Sep. 1986 Sensitivity Runs: Oct 85 or July 86

500 hPa Heights: RMS Difference vs. Time (MM5-NCEP) 150 100 50 [m] 1 OCT 1 NOV

RMS Difference vs. Baseline (500 hPa)

Random Numbers on a Computer Goals: Evenly distributed set of numbers in some range All sequences statistically independent of others Generated by an algorithm Hence, repeatable Hence, not truly random “Seed” gives a starting point for the algorithm True Random Numbers? Sample physical phenomena with known statistical properties Example: www.random.org

Ensemble Simulation Recognizes inherent “noise” of climate system Adds noise via starting conditions of forecast or climate simulation via changes in parameters or parameterizations Used to sample noise versus signal Ensemble: average appears to give more accurate result spread indicates periods of greater uncertainty?

Ensemble EdGCM Simulation