Lu Hu lu.hu@umontana.edu Global budget of tropospheric ozone: long-term trend and recent model advances Lu Hu lu.hu@umontana.edu With Loretta Mickley,

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Lu Hu lu.hu@umontana.edu Global budget of tropospheric ozone: long-term trend and recent model advances Lu Hu lu.hu@umontana.edu With Loretta Mickley, Daniel Jacob, Xiong Liu, Patrick Kim, Yi Zhang, Lin Zhang, Bob Yantosca, Melissa Sulprizio Acknowledgement: WOUDC, NOAA-GMD, MOZAIC-IAGOS, NASA GMAO, ACMAP, and Aura Science Team

GEOS-Chem updates in past decade have led to more active tropospheric ozone chemistry Global tropospheric ozone budget in GEOS-Chem benchmark outputs Model release date Changes mainly reflect model advances, not the actual atmosphere Hu et al. Atmos. Environ., in review

GEOS-Chem updates in past decade have led to more active tropospheric ozone chemistry Global tropospheric ozone budget in GEOS-Chem benchmark outputs Same met and emis year 10 years later Model release date Changes mainly reflect model advances, not the actual atmosphere Hu et al. Atmos. Environ., in review

GEOS-Chem v10-01 provides the best simulation of global tropospheric ozone over the history of the GEOS-Chem model versions Mean 500 hPa ozone in JJA 2013 OMI satellite data, X. Liu, SAO Model Hu et al. Atmos. Environ., in review

GEOS-Chem v10-01 provides the best simulation of global tropospheric ozone over the history of the GEOS-Chem model versions Mean 500 hPa ozone in JJA 2013 OMI satellite data, X. Liu, SAO Model But, GEOS-Chem shows a negative bias relative to ozonesondes at high northern latitudes, also a large sensitivity to meteorological fields Ozonesonde GEOS-5 (0.25° aka GEOS-FP) GEOS-5 (0.5°) GEOS-4 (1°) Pressure (hPa) Ozone (ppbv) Hu et al. Atmos. Environ., in review

Tropospheric ozone budget in current models Burden (Tg) Chemical production (Tg/y) Stratosphere-troposphere exchange (Tg/y) Pre 2000 Post 2010 Hu et al. Atmos. Environ., in review

Tropospheric ozone budget in current models GEOS-Chem Burden (Tg) Chemical production (Tg/y) Stratosphere-troposphere exchange (Tg/y) Pre 2000 Post 2010 Hu et al. Atmos. Environ., in review

Tropospheric ozone budget in current models GEOS-Chem Burden (Tg) Chemical production (Tg/y) Stratosphere-troposphere exchange (Tg/y) Pre 2000 Post 2010 Hu et al. Atmos. Environ., in review

Models can reproduce present-day levels, but not multi-decadal trends Increasingly active tropospheric chemistry in models would affect the computed sensitivity to perturbations GEOS-Chem simulation with MERRA+MACCity Climate models Model O3 (ppbv) Observations Observations Parrish et al., 2014 Hu et al. in prep Models can reproduce present-day levels, but not multi-decadal trends

A widespread model ozone overprediction in 1980s O3 (ppbv) WE also have looked at the ozonesonde data in 1980s, and it generally shows the same thing. Lack of information on emission over time Hu et al. in prep

Model estimates of natural background ozone is way too high, not only in 1920s, but also 1980s … Observations If no anthropogenic emissions in the model Hu et al. in prep

Nature sources Climate models Model O3 (ppbv) Observations GEOS-Chem simulation with MERRA+MACCity Climate models Model O3 (ppbv) Observations Observations If no anthropogenic emissions in the model Parrish et al., 2014 Need to reduce global NOx emission in 1980s by half? Hu et al. in prep