Volatility in ATM Taken by surprise?

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Presentation transcript:

Volatility in ATM Taken by surprise? www.eurocontrol.int/ansperformance Volatility in ATM Taken by surprise? World ATM Congress - FABEC OPS Theatre Madrid, 6 March 2018 Dr. Bernd Tiemeyer Head of Performance Review Unit (PRU)

Content & Objectives ‘Volatility’ in the ATM context Different perspectives Managing variability Further discussion www.eurocontrol.int/ansperformance

‘Volatility’ in the ATM context Economics: measure of risk and opportunity New term in the ATM context - clear definition? Used to refer to changes in traffic demand Due to varying causes and over varying time horizons Political crises, airspace closures, weather phenomenon, changes in route charges, etc. In ATM it addresses the level of variability of traffic demand in time and space - not a new phenomenon www.eurocontrol.int/ansperformance

Expectations of the ATM community (ICAO) The global ATM system should exploit the inherent capacity to meet airspace user demands at peak times and locations while minimizing restrictions on traffic flow. Global Air Traffic Management Operational Concept - ICAO Doc 9854 www.eurocontrol.int/ansperformance

The economic view Source: draft PRR 2017 Data still provisional * -1.1% if new methodology (REA) is applied as of April 2016 www.eurocontrol.int/ansperformance

The service provider view Source: draft PRR 2017 www.eurocontrol.int/ansperformance

The service provider view Source: draft PRR 2017 Source: draft PRR 2017 www.eurocontrol.int/ansperformance

The airspace user view Source: draft PRR 2017 www.eurocontrol.int/ansperformance

The airspace user view Source: draft PRR 2017 Source: draft PRR 2017 www.eurocontrol.int/ansperformance

Managing variability Source: draft PRR 2017 Source: draft PRR 2017 www.eurocontrol.int/ansperformance

Managing variability Source: PRU analysis based on NOP reports www.eurocontrol.int/ansperformance

What has changed ? Why is variability in demand more of an issue today? What makes management of capacity different today? Why are we taken by surprise? www.eurocontrol.int/ansperformance