European Forum for Geostatistics The EFGS and its GEOSTAT project – To build a system of small area statistics to serve as a common foundation for Geostatistics in Europe. Why? EFGS Geostat ESSnet Project meeting Luxembourg 10th – 11th of March 2011

Cause for concern

Evolutionary approach Nature vs. Culture: Artificial Evolution; Develop the manmade (culture is artificial) Artificial Virtual systems Artificial Real systems Natural Evolution; Adapt to the natural (man is nature) Natural Virtual systems Natural Real systems

”Navigare necesse est”? Earth a Man Environmental System (MES) Not sustainable conflict between the artificial and the natural Mans (global culture) must change The artificial evolution astray? Private specific (selfish) interests Public general (altruistic) interests Management to put it right! If you cannot Describe it, you cannot Manage it. If you cannot manage it you cannot improove it

Praxis: Projects A: A Description of the Present (model) Current descriptions of the manmade Environment, Logos Current descriptions of the natural Environment, Physis B: A Vision or the Future (model) Visions for the manmade Environment, Logos Scenarios for the natural Environment, Physis C: A Path leading from A to B (process) The manmade Environment, Evolution of Logos (Artificial evolution, what we may change) The natural Environment, Evolution of Physis (Natural evolution, what we must adapt to)

Projects as Darwin Machines 2. Design 3. Build 1. Analyse 4. Use Future Past PRAXIS SCIENCE Past: RESEARCH The present is the to a great extent the consquence of previous actions Present : ACTION Short time actions to ensure the satisfaction of current needs Future: VISIONS Long term actions to ensure desierable future state of MES

Think Global act Local Six scale intervals from local to global: Local concern, Local response District concern, District response Regional concern, Regional response National concern, National response European concern, European response Global concern, Global resonse A hierarchial system of concern A hierarchial system of response

Three Tier principle Regional projects National projects District concern, District response (describe consequences) Regional concern, Regional response National concern, National response (describe consequences) National projects Regional concern, Regional response (describe consequences) National concern, National response Global concern, Global resonse (describe consequences) European projects European concern, European response

Project descriptions The Narrative (describe the Path) Conventional Website Reference literature (ONC+R) ( reference library) A integration of compound objects (model the system) Semantic description from Narrative provides Object Name and Code (ONC) Attribute Objects (ONC+A) Feature Objects (ONC+F) Method Objects (ONC+M) Complex Objects = ONC+A+F+M

The ecological approach Real Systems– the Environmental system (model) 1 Set of layers: Natural Environments Layer 1 Layer 2 …. 1 Set of layers: Artificial Environments Virtual Systems– the Socioeconomic system (model) 1 Set of layers: Economic systems (Day-time population) 1 Set of layers: Social systems (Night-time population)

Statistics: Both Grids & Blobs To see the forest in spite of the trees, and vice versa Two views of the Forest The Blob view: Geographics describe the forest The Grid view: Geostatistics describe the trees Grids for detecting patterns with tree variables Neutral pattern, covers land and sea Patterns recognisable over scales Blobs for delineating Forests for comparison Accounting practices Benchmarking

Our task: EU poulation on km Grids National FGS Projects? From National INSPIRE annexes to a National GIISS Improved National Statistical system to serve a GIISS National bottom-up Taskforces (and projects) National top-down Taskforces (and projects) National integration Taskforces (and projects) European FGS Projects From European INSPIRE annexes to a National GIISS Improved National Statistical system to support a GIISS An European bottom-up Project (the EFGS project) An European top-down Project (an European Landscan?) An European integration Project (a hybrid dataset?) Global FGS Projects? From an European initiative to a Global GIISS Improved National Statistical system A Global bottom-up Project A Global top-down Project (the landscan project, SEDAC) A Global integration Project

In a nutshell Statistics: Grids & Blobs Use: Pattern Recognition Grids for spatial analysis Blobs for benchmarking Use: Pattern Recognition Patterns of features (features) Patterns of states (statistics) GGIISS: Integrated datasets An integrated description of MES To be built from the INSPIRE annexes

Thank You! lars.backer@mdmapping.se Lars Henrik Backer Executive Director European Forum for Geostatistics Valhallavägen 145 11531 Stockholm Sweden Tel : ++46 /6645215 Mobile : ++46 / (0)707543111 E-mail : lars.backer@mdmapping.se