Cold Fusion is Part of a Scientific Revolution Introduction 5 Introductory Points Edward Lewis P.O. Box 2013, Champaign, IL October 28,

(1)Scientific revolutions in physics have occurred at 80- year intervals. The Copernican, about 1506;

Paradigm Shifts in Physics the Galilean, about 1593; the Newtonian, 1664; the Fluid paradigm originally formulated by Franklin, about 1745; the Classical Field theory paradigm, rudimentarily formulated by Faraday in 1820 and developed by Maxwell;

Paradigm Shifts in Physics the Quantum Mechanics (QM) and Relativity theory paradigm, formulated by Einstein, about and the Plasmoid theory paradigm, about 1992.

Introductory Point 2 (2)In each of these revolutions, a new fundamental physics theory was formulated by an individual to resolve anomalies that had arisen against the dominant theory during the 10- or 20-year crisis periods (per T. Kuhn). Fundamental anomalies are discovered during crisis periods in physics.

Crisis Periods in Physics

Revolutions in Physics

Introductory Point 3 3)Each of the paradigms contained a distinctive hypothesis about the force or energy that caused matter to move. For example, Copernicuss heliocentric viewpoint contained a hypothesis of impetus, which was that everything strived to position itself to its natural place. In contrast, in the 1590s Galileo, Kepler, and Gilbert more or less independently postulated the tendency of bodies to rest and outside forces as the reason for motion, and magnetism as the reason for the fall of bodies.

Introductory Point 3 (cont.) Newton postulated that corpuscles of matter are the seat of forces. Newton postulated what he called aether to explain magnetic and electric phenomena. The ideas of a pervading aether and of corpuscles that were the goal or point of departure of forces were postulates of all theories of the Newtonian paradigm.

Introductory Point 3 (cont.) Franklin was the first to postulate the basic Fluids of electricity and heat (caloric). He laid the theoretical framework for the various theories of the Fluid paradigm. An important property that he ascribed to these hypothetical Fluids was that they were conserved in systems.

Introductory Point 3 (cont.) Faraday formulated the basic ideas of point atoms and lines of force. These were the basic ideas of Classical Field theory. Einstein formulated the basic concepts of both Quantum Mechanics and Relativity theory.

Introductory Point 4 (4)The 1970s and 1980s would mark a time of a crisis period if the past pattern persisted.

Introductory Point 5 (5) From the history of science, two general principals can be drawn: (a) Older, more experienced people learn new ideas slowly or not at all, especially when the ideas are very different from their own. I call this constraint the inhibition of apprehension. (b) Theoreticians are not usually the best experimenters or technicians, and vice versa. I call this constraint the difference between theoreticians and technicians.

Theory Based on these two principals, and the idea that people are striving to develop physics as much as possible given these two constraints, we can expect that paradigms in physics will change every 80 years. We can also expect that if physics developed as in the past:

Scientific Revolutions at 80 Year Intervals

If Cold Fusion is part of a scientific revolution… 1) There have been fundamental anomalies discovered in QM and Relativity theory. 2) Almost no person in my generation and in the previous generations can comprehend the new theory. 3) Someone has formulated a theory to resolve the fundamental anomalies to QM and Relativity theories.

If Cold Fusion is part of a scientific revolution in physics 4) Though there might be profitable inventive work within this paradigm early on, as there was with the invention of the telegraph based on the electro-magnetic effect in the 1830s, which was well before Maxwells work in the 1860s, the important inventions within the new paradigm wont be made until the theory of the paradigm is well developed.

Economic Consequences of the Development of Physics Each of the previous three paradigm shifts resulted in an industrial revolution that changed human culture and productivity about 70 years later. (1) Fluid theory resulted in the 1 st Industrial Revolution. (2) Field theory resulted in the 2 nd Industrial Revolution. (3) QM and Relativity theories resulted in the 3 rd Industrial Revolution, which the world has just passed through.

Economic Consequences of the Development of Physics

Each of the revolutions has resulted in a curvilinear trend of productivity growth with a periodicity of about 80 years. Each of the industrial revolutions lagged about 55 or 80 years after the scientific revolution that initiated it. For example, the productivity growth increases of the First Industrial Revolution lagged about 55 years behind Franklins introduction of Fluid theory in 1745.

80 to 90 year periodicity of productivity growth rates

80 Year Periodicity of Productivity Growth Rates in US

If Cold Fusion is a part of a scientific revolution… We can expect that if the economies of the world follow the pattern of the first three industrial revolutions, there will be a 4 th Industrial Revolution about the year 2035 or 2060.

I would like to thank the conference committee and especially George Miley for his help in showing this presentation.